Thursday, April 28, 2005

The starters may be falling, but the sky is not

The Sky is Falling! The Sky Is Falling!

Wells is on the DL! Schilling's on the DL!

The Sky is Falling!


Or is it?

If Curt Schilling is gone for the entire season, they've got serious issues. If Schilling's gone for 3 weeks, it's just not that big a deal. One of the strengths that the Red Sox had coming into the season was depth of starting pitching. Fans have been wondering for weeks "what's going to happen when Wade Miller's ready?" and though he's not ready yet, all indications are that he will be shortly. They've got a short-term gap to make up right now, until Schilling's back in a couple of weeks, and when he is, if Miller's back, then Wells' absence isn't a problem.

To cover the gap, they've got John Halama in the bullpen, they've got Jeremi Gonzalez at Pawtucket, they could bring up Abe Alvarez (who made a Major League start last year.) Obviously, Wakefield, Arroyo and Clement will pitch the 3 games in Texas. The question is what happens when they get to Detroit. Halama presumably gets one of those. Lenny DiNardo's been starting in Pawtucket, or they could bring up Alvarez. If Miller's ready in 2 starts, if Schilling's back in 2 weeks, if, if, if...

But it just isn't that bad. Here's what the schedule and pitching rotation look like for the next 3 weeks, starting with yesterday's rain-out.



Schedule/Rotation
DayDateOpponentPitcherRehab

Wednesday4/27/2005Baltimore

Thursday4/28/2005OffMiller

Friday4/29/2005at Texas Wakefield

Saturday4/30/2005at Texas Arroyo

Sunday5/1/2005at Texas Clement

Monday5/2/2005at Detroit unknown?

Tuesday5/3/2005at Detroit unknown?Miller

Wednesday5/4/2005at Detroit Wakefield

Thursday5/5/2005at Detroit Arroyo

Friday5/6/2005Seattle Clement

Saturday5/7/2005Seattle unknown?

Sunday5/8/2005Seattle unknown?Miller

Monday5/9/2005Oakland Wakefield

Tuesday5/10/2005Oakland Arroyo

Wednesday5/11/2005Oakland Clement

Thursday5/12/2005Off

Friday5/13/2005at Seattle Miller

Saturday5/14/2005at Seattle Wakefield

Sunday5/15/2005at Seattle Arroyo

Monday5/16/2005at Oakland Clement

Tuesday5/17/2005at Oakland unknown?

Wednesday5/18/2005at Oakland Miller

Thursday5/19/2005Off

Friday5/20/2005Atlanta Wakefield

Saturday5/21/2005Atlanta Arroyo

Sunday5/22/2005Atlanta Clement

Monday5/23/2005Off

Tuesday5/24/2005at TorontoMiller

Wednesday5/25/2005at TorontoWakefield

Thursday5/26/2005at TorontoArroyo



They're putting Schilling on the DL, presumably dated back to Saturday when he last pitched, which makes him eligible to come back on May 8th against Seattle, but I think we can assume that he won't be back then. If it takes 2 full weeks from yesterday, he'll probably make his next start on May 13th in Seattle. But let's assume that it takes 3. He may pitch on the 18th in Oakland, or maybe not until the 24th in Toronto. I've slotted Wade Miller into the rotation starting on the 13th, because his 30-day rehab stint started on April 13th, so has to be over by May 12th. Frankly, I expect him to make two more starts in Pawtucket and then pitch the Sunday home game against Seattle on the 8th of May.

But what we're looking at is patching essentially 5 games over the next 3 weeks with the likes of John Halama, Lenny DiNardo, Abe Alvarez and Jeremi Gonzalez. The difference in expected winning percentage between Curt Schilling and John Halama over the last 3 years is about 61% vs. 37%. Basically, that's one win over 5 games. They'll be fine. They need to hit. They desperately need for the bullpen to get straightened out. But this isn't a huge deal, assuming that Schilling's actually ready in 3 weeks and that Miller doesn't re-injure himself.

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