The starters may be falling, but the sky is not

The Sky is Falling! The Sky Is Falling!

Wells is on the DL! Schilling's on the DL!

The Sky is Falling!


Or is it?

If Curt Schilling is gone for the entire season, they've got serious issues. If Schilling's gone for 3 weeks, it's just not that big a deal. One of the strengths that the Red Sox had coming into the season was depth of starting pitching. Fans have been wondering for weeks "what's going to happen when Wade Miller's ready?" and though he's not ready yet, all indications are that he will be shortly. They've got a short-term gap to make up right now, until Schilling's back in a couple of weeks, and when he is, if Miller's back, then Wells' absence isn't a problem.

To cover the gap, they've got John Halama in the bullpen, they've got Jeremi Gonzalez at Pawtucket, they could bring up Abe Alvarez (who made a Major League start last year.) Obviously, Wakefield, Arroyo and Clement will pitch the 3 games in Texas. The question is what happens when they get to Detroit. Halama presumably gets one of those. Lenny DiNardo's been starting in Pawtucket, or they could bring up Alvarez. If Miller's ready in 2 starts, if Schilling's back in 2 weeks, if, if, if...

But it just isn't that bad. Here's what the schedule and pitching rotation look like for the next 3 weeks, starting with yesterday's rain-out.

Schedule/Rotation

Day	Date	Opponent	Pitcher	Rehab
Wednesday	4/27/2005	Baltimore
Thursday	4/28/2005	Off		Miller
Friday	4/29/2005	at Texas	Wakefield
Saturday	4/30/2005	at Texas	Arroyo
Sunday	5/1/2005	at Texas	Clement
Monday	5/2/2005	at Detroit	unknown?
Tuesday	5/3/2005	at Detroit	unknown?	Miller
Wednesday	5/4/2005	at Detroit	Wakefield
Thursday	5/5/2005	at Detroit	Arroyo
Friday	5/6/2005	Seattle	Clement
Saturday	5/7/2005	Seattle	unknown?
Sunday	5/8/2005	Seattle	unknown?	Miller
Monday	5/9/2005	Oakland	Wakefield
Tuesday	5/10/2005	Oakland	Arroyo
Wednesday	5/11/2005	Oakland	Clement
Thursday	5/12/2005	Off
Friday	5/13/2005	at Seattle	Miller
Saturday	5/14/2005	at Seattle	Wakefield
Sunday	5/15/2005	at Seattle	Arroyo
Monday	5/16/2005	at Oakland	Clement
Tuesday	5/17/2005	at Oakland	unknown?
Wednesday	5/18/2005	at Oakland	Miller
Thursday	5/19/2005	Off
Friday	5/20/2005	Atlanta	Wakefield
Saturday	5/21/2005	Atlanta	Arroyo
Sunday	5/22/2005	Atlanta	Clement
Monday	5/23/2005	Off
Tuesday	5/24/2005	at Toronto	Miller
Wednesday	5/25/2005	at Toronto	Wakefield
Thursday	5/26/2005	at Toronto	Arroyo

They're putting Schilling on the DL, presumably dated back to Saturday when he last pitched, which makes him eligible to come back on May 8th against Seattle, but I think we can assume that he won't be back then. If it takes 2 full weeks from yesterday, he'll probably make his next start on May 13th in Seattle. But let's assume that it takes 3. He may pitch on the 18th in Oakland, or maybe not until the 24th in Toronto. I've slotted Wade Miller into the rotation starting on the 13th, because his 30-day rehab stint started on April 13th, so has to be over by May 12th. Frankly, I expect him to make two more starts in Pawtucket and then pitch the Sunday home game against Seattle on the 8th of May.

But what we're looking at is patching essentially 5 games over the next 3 weeks with the likes of John Halama, Lenny DiNardo, Abe Alvarez and Jeremi Gonzalez. The difference in expected winning percentage between Curt Schilling and John Halama over the last 3 years is about 61% vs. 37%. Basically, that's one win over 5 games. They'll be fine. They need to hit. They desperately need for the bullpen to get straightened out. But this isn't a huge deal, assuming that Schilling's actually ready in 3 weeks and that Miller doesn't re-injure himself.