Thursday, January 23, 2014

Red Sox sign Grady Sizemore to one-year deal

Boston Globe: Red Sox sign Grady Sizemore to one-year deal

I. Love. This. Signing.

Love, love, love.

He's 31 years old, and has played only 210 games over the past five years, none over the past two. But from age 22-25, he hit .281/.372/.496/.868 (OPS+ of 128) while playing Gold Glove caliber defense in Center Field and making the All Star Game in the last three of those four years. And they're paying him $750,000 if he gives them nothing. And they're not depending on him being healthy and working out, because they've already got Bradley. This is the epitome of a low-risk, potentially high-reward move. If the 80% chance is that he's too rusty and/or injured to be productive, he costs them essentially nothing. Maybe there's a 15% chance that he gives them what he gave Cleveland in 2009 - 75-100 games at a 110 OPS+ in CF, taking some of the pressure off Bradley. And maybe even 5% that he comes close to all the way back, and has a healthy and productive full year.

Adjust those probabilities however you like, the cost is so low that they would have to handle the situation very badly to hurt the team.

So I love it...

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