Monday, August 19, 2013

Monday Pythagorean, 8/19/2013

If winning 2-of-3 is a recipe for success in Major League baseball, logic would suggest that losing 2-of-3 is a recipe for failure.

  • With three straight series losses, the Sox are in their second real down-stretch of the season. And, after playing their last four series in four difference cities, they're following a late night dispiriting loss with a trip out to the West coast for the next two series.


  • With the exception of Monday, when both teams had the night off, the size of the Sox' lead over the Rays in the AL East changed every day this week. The teams had the opposite result every night - when Boston lost, Tampa won; when Boston won, Tampa lost. Unfortunately, there were four of the former and only two of the latter.


  • They lost games this week with decent pitching but poor offense (4-3, 2-1). They lost a game this week with good offense and poor pitching (9-6).


  • 10th in the AL in runs scored. 10th in runs allowed. Makes it seem like the offense and pitching were equally culpable. But poor offensive performances are easier to hide in an average than poor pitching performances. On a game-by-game basis, they had two poor pitching performances, allowing 10 and nine, and three poor offensive performances, scoring three twice and one. They allowed more than four twice, and scored fewer than five four times. On the whole, the pitching staff was better than the offense.


  • Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, the 1-2-3 hitters, combined to hit .230/.264/.264/.528, with 6.37 runs created (2.34 RC/25 outs). That's like trying to pull on to the highway with the emergency brake on.


  • They certanly weren't the only culprits. Throw in Gomes, Napoli, Carp, Lavarnway and Drew, and you've got 2/3 of your at-bats going to a group that hits .213/.259/.273/.533 with 11.19 runs created (2.29 RC/25 outs).


  • I hated Dempster throwing at ARod last night. If the home plate umpire is doing his job, the result of that is Boston being forced to go to the bullpen with none out in the 2nd inning. As it was, it gave the Yankees a free lead-off baserunner en route to tying the game. Just dumb. There is no possible benefit derived from hitting ARod there that comes close to justifying the cost. Idiocy.

    And Girardi was 100% correct - Dempster clearly threw at him, with intent to hit, and clearly should have been ejected. He will be fined, and a suspension wouldn't surprise me, either.

    Idiocy.

    And how did that work out for them? The HBP set up the first two Yankee runs; Rodriguez' 6th inning HR started the four-run rally that gave New York the lead for good.

    Idiocy.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - It's far, far too early to proclaim the Middlebrooks return from the minors a triumphant success. But he's sure been more effective since returning than he was before going down, and the Player of the Week this week is William Middlebrooks (.474/.565/.789/1.355, 7.25 runs created, 18.13 RC/25 outs).


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - After struggling in his last few outings, John Lackey was outstanding on Saturday, allowing only one run in 6 2/3 innings and setting the Red Sox up to win the series against NY and come out of the week at .500. (They didn't, of course, but...)




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/19/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.17(1)3.89(3)0.627(1)78467351-5
Boston5.02(2)4.24(7)0.577(2)735373530
Oakland4.42(9)3.86(2)0.562(3)695470531
Texas4.45(8)3.98(4)0.551(4)685671533
Tampa Bay4.48(7)4.04(5)0.547(5)675570523
Baltimore4.79(3)4.43(10)0.535(6)665767561
Cleveland4.61(5)4.37(9)0.525(7)655966581
Kansas City4.05(12)3.84(1)0.524(8)645964590
NY Yankees3.99(13)4.05(6)0.494(9)616264593
LA Angels4.64(4)4.93(14)0.472(10)58655568-3
Toronto4.53(6)4.83(13)0.471(11)58665767-1
Minnesota4.09(11)4.66(11)0.44(12)546854680
Chicago Sox3.74(15)4.33(8)0.434(13)53704974-4
Seattle4.11(10)4.83(12)0.427(14)537057664
Houston3.84(14)5.25(15)0.36(15)44794182-3


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit9567
Boston9468
Texas9369
Tampa Bay9369
Oakland9270


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit9765
Boston9468
Oakland9270
Texas9270
Tampa Bay9270


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
NY Yankees7.29(1)4.86(12)0.677(1)52520
Chicago Sox5(4)3.43(4)0.666(2)52520
Texas5.4(2)4(8)0.634(3)32330
Oakland3.71(11)2.86(1)0.618(4)43430
Tampa Bay4.17(7)3.5(5)0.579(5)33421
Houston4(8)3.57(7)0.552(6)43430
Baltimore5.17(3)4.67(10)0.546(7)3324-1
Cleveland4.33(6)4(8)0.537(8)33330
Detroit3.5(13)3.5(5)0.5(9)44440
Toronto2.86(14)3.14(3)0.457(10)34340
Kansas City2.75(15)3.13(2)0.442(11)4435-1
Boston3.83(10)4.67(10)0.411(12)24240
Minnesota3.71(11)5(13)0.367(13)3425-1
LA Angels4.57(5)7.29(15)0.299(14)25250
Seattle4(8)7(14)0.264(15)14332

Labels: ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link