Monday, August 12, 2013

Monday pythagorean - 8/12/2013

So, last week, 5-2 upped their lead in the AL East by half a game. This week's 3-4 upped it by 2...
  • I noted last week that the Rays had cooled down, but were winning anyway, going 4-2 when they're performance suggested 2-4 was more appropriate. Well, their poor performance continued this week, and the results matched, as they went 0-5. So week that, objectively, wasn't very good for the Red Sox, losing four-of-seven, ends up being a good week relatively, as their lead expands by two games back to three. And because Boston played seven while Tampa played five, it expanded in both the win and loss columns.

  • Mr. Middlebrooks' return to the lineup has been a success, albeit in far too few plate appearances to mean anything. I'm happier about the walk than the three hits, but eight plate appearances just doesn't mean anything.

  • There are two ways to look at it. If you're a "the Lester is half empty" person, you see that he came out and dug a hole in his Thursday start that was too deep for the team to dig its way out. If you're a "the Lester is half full" kind of guy, you note that of the three runs he gave up in the first, two were unearned because Gomes missed an easy fly ball, and he finished his outing with six scoreless against a very hot Royals team. In fact, it was actually the best start by a Red Sox starter this week.

  • The Peavy acquisition looked a lot better last week than this week. The trade of Iglesias doesn't look any worse, though.

  • A month ago, we were all in love with John Lackey, who was having a spectacular season. In his last five starts, he's 0-4 (some of that's due to run support, or lack thereof) with an ERA approaching 5 (4.96). Hopefully, this is just a brief slump and not a reversion to a lower actual level of performance than we want to see from him.

  • The Red Sox have run into a couple of very hot teams since the All Star Break in the Rays and Royals. That won't be the case this week, as they travel to Toronto and then home to face the Yankees.

  • One schedule quirk to keep an eye on - as of this morning, the Red Sox have played four games more than the Rays. This means, obviously, that Boston has four more off-days down the stretch than Tampa does. The Sox have the night off, but so do the Rays, so that remains the case tomorrow. Tampa has 18 games in the remaining 19 games of August, while Boston has 17. Tampa has 28 games in the 29 days of September and Boston has 25. So, of the 38 days remaining in the season, starting tomorrow, the Rays have only two scheduled off-days, while the Red Sox have six. That may not end up meaning anything, but I'd rather have Boston's schedule than Tampa's.

  • Does three games at home between 10 game and six game road trips really count as a homestand? Or does it just end up being, in effect, a 19-game road trip? The Sox will play in Toronto on Thursday night, flying home late to arrive on Friday morning, and then leave for the west coast again on Sunday afternoon. That's not much of a "homestand" after 10 games on the road.

  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Ol' man Papi David Ortiz (.440/.500/.560/1.060, 6.59 runs created, 11.77 RC/25 outs) just keeps rolling along, and Jonny Gomes 13 at-bats were very productive (.385/.529/1.000/1.529, 5.81 runs created, 18.17 RC/25 outs). But the best offensive player of the week, while continuing to provide excellent defense at SS, was Stephen Drew (.370/.452/.593/1.044, 6.87 runs created, 10.11 RC/25 outs).

  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - With no "special" performances from the starters, this week is a good time to look at the bullpen, where we see that Junichi Tazawa threw five scoreless innings, allowing only two hits and no walks while striking out five over three stellar appearances.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/12/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.29(1)3.92(2)0.634(1)74426947-5
Boston5.08(2)4.22(7)0.585(2)705071491
Oakland4.47(8)3.92(3)0.559(3)655166501
Texas4.41(9)3.97(4)0.547(4)655368503
Tampa Bay4.5(7)4.07(6)0.546(5)635366503
Baltimore4.77(3)4.42(10)0.535(6)635465522
Kansas City4.14(10)3.89(1)0.528(7)615461540
Cleveland4.63(6)4.39(9)0.524(8)625663551
LA Angels4.64(4)4.79(13)0.486(9)56605363-3
NY Yankees3.79(14)4(5)0.476(10)556159574
Toronto4.63(5)4.93(14)0.471(11)55625463-1
Minnesota4.12(11)4.64(11)0.445(12)516452631
Seattle4.11(12)4.73(12)0.436(13)516654633
Chicago Sox3.66(15)4.38(8)0.419(14)49674472-5
Houston3.83(13)5.35(15)0.351(15)41753779-4


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit9666
Boston9666
Texas9369
Oakland9270
Tampa Bay9270


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit9864
Boston9666
Oakland9270
Texas9270
Tampa Bay9171


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Baltimore6.2(2)2.2(1)0.869(1)41410
Texas7.17(1)3(2)0.831(2)51601
Detroit5.86(4)3.29(3)0.742(3)52520
Kansas City5.57(5)3.43(4)0.709(4)52520
Oakland6(3)4.8(7)0.601(5)3223-1
Chicago Sox4.43(9)3.86(5)0.563(6)43430
Boston5.29(7)5.43(8)0.488(7)34340
Toronto5.33(6)6(11)0.446(8)33330
Minnesota4(11)4.57(6)0.439(9)34431
LA Angels4.17(10)5.5(9)0.376(10)24240
Houston4.5(8)7(14)0.308(11)2415-1
NY Yankees3.33(13)5.5(9)0.286(12)24240
Seattle3.17(14)6.17(13)0.228(13)15241
Cleveland3(15)6(11)0.22(14)2516-1
Tampa Bay3.4(12)7(14)0.211(15)1405-1

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