Monday, August 06, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 8/6/2012

"It isn't fun any more. Not any of it."
- Ernest Hemingway, The End Of Something (In Our Time)

  • Another week, another (losing) streak. Four straight, this time, the sixth time in their first 109 games that they've had losing streaks of at least four consecutive games. Every single time it looks as if they might be starting to look like a good team, they crater.
  • And yet. They are still close enough that a 15-out-of-20 stretch would get them very close to, if not actually into, one of the playoff spots. And they've still got one of the top five run differential's in the AL. So you can't just fold.
  • Of course, they haven't won 15-out-of-20 at any point so far, and have shown nothing to suggest that they're about to.
  • This is as big a tease as I remember a Red Sox team ever being.
  • They finally have a week in which the starting pitching is pretty good. Good-to-very-good performances starts in four of the seven games, and one of the others was a good start cut short by injury. Doubront wasn't good, but only Cook produced a disaster start. And the bullpen proceeded celebrate by losing games late.
  • The offense was bad. Again. Which is what happens when over half of your at-bats goes to players (Kalish, Shoppach, Ciriaco, Saltalamacchia, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Sweeney and Punto) who hit a cumulative .197/.240/.303/.544 for the week.
  • Jon Lester has not had a good year. But it's not been as bad as it looks. His ERA is over a full run higher because of a four-game stretch to start the month of July than it would be otherwise. But even when he pitches well, they don't win. Thursday night marked the seventh time this year that he's pitched at least seven innings and allowed three or fewer runs. Given offensive levels in today's game, a starting pitcher should end up with a win in four or five of those games. He's got two, to go with three losses. For a little perspective, Felix Doubront is 1-0 in his one (1) start of 7+ with fewer than 4 runs allowed. Clay Buchholz is 4-0 in his eight. Josh Beckett is 3-2 in his six.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Mike Aviles (.455/.538/.727/1.266) was very productive in limited playing time. But his playing time was limited. Carl Crawford (.345/.367/.690/1.056) had a very good week, the most runs created on the team, but not the best production, because he used a lot of outs in the process. So the player of the week was Adrian Gonzalez (.435/.536/.609/1.144), who read last week's lament on his lack of walks and atoned with five of them on the week.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Excellent spot start from Franklin Morales. Good relief outings from Craig Breslow and Mark Melancon (and Mortensen and Tazawa). An encouraging start from Jon Lester. But clearly, the pitcher of the week was Clay Buchholz, who allowed four runs (only two earned) over 15 innings in two starts.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/6/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York4.87(2)4.01(4)0.588(1)634463440
Texas5.12(1)4.35(7)0.575(2)614663442
Chicago4.77(5)4.17(5)0.561(3)60475948-1
Los Angeles4.66(6)4.21(6)0.546(4)60495851-2
Oakland3.98(13)3.72(1)0.531(5)575158501
Boston4.86(3)4.6(9)0.526(6)57525455-3
Detroit4.59(7)4.37(8)0.523(7)565258502
Tampa Bay4.02(12)3.84(2)0.52(8)565256520
Toronto4.83(4)4.75(12)0.508(9)55535355-2
Seattle3.95(14)3.97(3)0.497(10)55555159-4
Baltimore4.11(11)4.64(10)0.445(11)486057519
Kansas City4.18(10)4.74(11)0.443(12)47604562-2
Minnesota4.41(8)5.14(14)0.43(13)466247611
Cleveland4.24(9)5.07(13)0.419(14)456350585

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9567
Texas9567
Chicago8973
Oakland8775
Detroit8775


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9567
Texas9567
Chicago9072
Los Angeles8775
Oakland8775



Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay2.83(14)1.67(1)0.725(1)4233-1
Detroit6.17(3)4.5(10)0.64(2)42420
New York5.5(4)4.17(6)0.624(3)4233-1
Kansas City5.33(5)4.33(7)0.594(4)42420
Seattle3.67(10)3(2)0.591(5)42420
Minnesota4.71(7)4(4)0.575(6)43430
Chicago5(6)4.33(7)0.565(7)33421
Baltimore4(9)3.83(3)0.519(8)33421
Los Angeles7.71(1)7.57(13)0.509(9)4334-1
Texas7.29(2)7.43(12)0.491(10)34431
Boston4.43(8)4.57(11)0.485(11)34340
Oakland2.86(12)4.14(5)0.336(12)25341
Toronto2.86(12)4.43(9)0.31(13)25250
Cleveland3.67(10)7.67(14)0.206(14)1506-1

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