Monday, July 23, 2012

Monday Pythagorean, 7/23/2012

If I were writing these reports on Friday mornings, instead of Monday mornings, this reports would be a lot more cheerful. If there had been three days of torrential rains in Boston preventing baseball from being played, this report would be a lot more cheerful. Hell, if the Red Sox two "best" starting pitchers, Beckett and Lester, were on the DL, this report would be a lot more cheerful...
  • Let me ease the suspense a little bit up front - the Red Sox Pitcher of the Week this week was not Jon Lester.
  • Josh Beckett also fell short.
  • So, while we're hammering the starting pitchers (and why not? Everyone else has...), let's mention that in the last eight games, they've made it through the first inning unscored upon twice. They've allowed an average of 1.75 runs in the first over that stretch. Have the other aspects of the team been great? No, but nothing else has been as bad as the starters.
  • For the week, the starters allowed 30 runs (26 earned) in 41 1/3 innings, for a 5.66 ERA (6.53 RA/9). That's including excellent performances from Cook and Buccholz and a good start from Doubront. The aforementioned big money disaster duo, Messrs. Lester and Beckett, started three games (not coincidentally, all of which the Sox lost) and allowed 22 runs in 14 innings of work.
  • But let's speak about the offense for a minute. Over a 32 inning stretch, from the 6 inning on Wednesday night through the third inning yesterday, they scored only four times. Three of those scores were three-run home runs (Ross, Saltalamaccia and Gonzalez), which is nice, but that's it. In 28 innings, over the course of about three and a half games, they couldn't score even one run.
  • A diet of three-run homers is nice for your offense. But it's not a balanced diet. If that's all you're getting, you need more than one-a-day, unless your pitching is better than good (and much, much better than Boston's pitching has been).
  • How bad a week did Will Middlebrooks (.167/.167/.167/.333) have? Runs Created thinks he was even worse than Daniel Nava (.000/.214/.000/.214), who went 0-11 but did walk twice and get hit by a pitch...
  • Number of games in which Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia and Ortiz all played for the Red Sox before August arrives? 0.00 (Zero. Nil. Nada. None. Zippo. The big goose egg...)
  • Good to see Ellsbury and Crawford back. But the Crawford for Ortiz swap that happened on Monday night is not a positive.
  • Great to see Pedroia back. I suppose. Because that gives us hope that the real Pedroia (at least, what we hope is the real Pedroia) will soon return to replace the Dustin Pedroia (.250/.250/.250/.500) we're seeing now.
  • Red Sox Goat of the Week - If you got this far (and with such depressing subject matter, the question is, "why did you get this far?"), then you are not going to be surprised to see the name Jon Lester. He started twice, and got hammered twice. He allowed five runs in the top of the first on Sunday, and then, after his team went out to get three back and keep them in the game, promptly gave up four more in the second. All things considered, one of the worst performances ever from a starting pitcher.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Cody Ross (.360/.385/.840/1.225) had a great week on Wednesday and Thursday, with three 3-run homers, but his performance was topped by Adrian Gonzalez (.429/.429/.750/1.179), who also homered three times.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - He didn't get the win, but Clay Buchholz was outstanding against the White Sox, and kept the team in the game long enough for them to win a game in which they didn't score until the bottom of the ninth.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/23/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.03(1)4.18(6)0.584(1)553956381
New York4.83(4)4.03(3)0.582(2)554057382
Los Angeles4.51(7)4.03(2)0.551(3)53435244-1
Boston4.99(3)4.54(9)0.543(4)52444848-4
Chicago4.63(5)4.22(7)0.542(5)52435045-2
Toronto5.01(2)4.71(12)0.529(6)50454847-2
Detroit4.59(6)4.38(8)0.522(7)504652442
Oakland3.81(14)3.63(1)0.522(8)504551441
Tampa Bay4.13(12)4.1(5)0.502(9)484849471
Seattle3.96(13)4.09(4)0.485(10)47504255-5
Baltimore4.16(11)4.62(10)0.452(11)435251448
Cleveland4.38(8)4.87(13)0.451(12)435247484
Kansas City4.16(10)4.7(11)0.444(13)42524054-2
Minnesota4.26(9)5.21(14)0.409(14)395640551
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas9765
New York9765
Los Angeles8874
Detroit8874
Oakland8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas9666
New York9666
Los Angeles8874
Chicago8676
Detroit8676
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York4(10)2.57(1)0.692(1)5234-2
Seattle5.43(2)3.57(4)0.683(2)52520
Minnesota5.86(1)4.29(7)0.639(3)43430
Detroit5.29(4)4.14(6)0.61(4)43612
Texas4.6(8)4(5)0.564(5)3223-1
Toronto5.33(3)4.83(8)0.545(6)33330
Tampa Bay3.43(11)3.14(2)0.54(7)4334-1
Los Angeles5.29(4)4.86(9)0.539(8)4334-1
Oakland3.17(12)3.17(3)0.5(9)33512
Baltimore4.86(6)5(10)0.487(10)34522
Boston4.86(6)5.43(12)0.449(11)34340
Kansas City4.57(9)6.14(14)0.368(12)3425-1
Cleveland3(13)5(10)0.282(13)25250
Chicago2.43(14)5.71(13)0.173(14)16160

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