Monday, July 30, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 7/30/2012

3-3 on a six-game swing through Texas and New York isn't awful, but we're rapidly approaching "'isn't awful' isn't anywhere near good enough" territory...

  • The more typical pattern this year has been to underperform their runs scored/allowed performance.  This week, the offense was bad, the pitching was bad, and they still went .500.


  • "Oh where, oh where, has my Underdog Adrian Gonzalez gone?  Oh where, oh where could he be?"  So his batting average is down - those things happen.  So he's hitting for less power - that happens, too, and it's something that could be rectified with a couple of hot weeks.  And the singles and doubles aren't much off last year's pace at all.  No, the six missing home runs don't concern me anywhere near as much as the 21 missing walks.  Where's the plate discipline gone? 


  • Score 20, allow 33, count yourself very lucky to win half of your games.


  • Gonzalez had a lot of company in the "what's this round piece of wood supposed to be used for, again?" club this week.  Jacoby Ellsbury (.208/.296/.250/.546), Carl Crawford (.118/.167/.294/.461), Kelly Shoppach (.111/.200/.222/.422), Cody Ross (.167/.200/.208/.408), and especially Mike Aviles (.056/.056/.056/.111), all contributed greatly to the aid and comfort and joy of opposing pitching staffs...


  • OT:  Season 6, Episode 7 of Buffy The Vampire Slayer, "Once More With Feeling," may be my favorite hour of scripted television ever.  It's definitely my favorite vampire musical.


  • Was the starting pitching better this week?  Not really, as they gave up at least four runs in four of their six starts.  But they only allowed a run (well, 3 runs) in the first inning once, getting into the second scoreless five times.  That's a big improvement over the way they'd been starting.


  • Of course, scoreless first followed by meltdowns in the third doesn't really get you where you need to get, either...


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.300/.462/1.000/1.462) had a fantastic week, albeit in only 4 games (10 AB).  But the best performance, on both a total production and a production per out basis, was Will Middlebrooks (.435/.458/.652/1.111).


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - This one almost goes to the bullpen, as Alfredo Aceves pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings over three appearances, saving two of their three victories and getting the win in the third.  Unfortunately for him, the one hit that he gave up allowed the tying run to score in New York, and forced them into extra innings.  So instead, this week we honor Clay Buchholz, who had another excellent start, allowing one run over seven innings against the Rangers.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/30/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York4.83(4)4(4)0.586(1)594260411
Texas4.97(2)4.13(6)0.584(2)584259411
Chicago4.75(5)4.16(7)0.561(3)57445546-2
Los Angeles4.45(7)3.98(3)0.551(4)56465547-1
Oakland4.06(13)3.69(1)0.543(5)554655460
Boston4.89(3)4.6(9)0.528(6)54485151-3
Toronto4.97(1)4.77(12)0.519(7)52495150-1
Detroit4.5(6)4.36(8)0.514(8)525054482
Tampa Bay4.09(12)3.97(2)0.513(9)525053491
Seattle3.96(14)4.03(5)0.492(10)51534757-4
Baltimore4.12(10)4.69(10)0.441(11)455753498
Cleveland4.27(9)4.92(13)0.436(12)445850526
Kansas City4.11(11)4.76(11)0.433(13)44574160-3
Minnesota4.39(8)5.22(14)0.421(14)435843580




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9666
Texas9666
Chicago8874
Oakland8874
Los Angeles8775




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9666
Texas9567
Chicago8973
Los Angeles8874
Oakland8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Chicago6.67(2)3.17(3)0.796(1)51510
Tampa Bay3.5(9)1.83(1)0.766(2)5142-1
Oakland8(1)4.67(8)0.728(3)42420
New York4.83(4)3.5(6)0.644(4)4233-1
Seattle4(6)3.14(2)0.609(5)43521
Texas4(6)3.33(5)0.583(6)33330
Minnesota6.33(3)5.33(9)0.578(7)33330
Los Angeles3.5(9)3.17(3)0.546(8)33330
Toronto4.33(5)5.83(14)0.367(9)24331
Detroit3(13)4.17(7)0.354(10)24240
Baltimore3.57(8)5.57(11)0.307(11)25250
Kansas City3.43(11)5.57(11)0.291(12)2516-1
Boston3.33(12)5.5(10)0.286(13)24331
Cleveland2.86(14)5.57(11)0.228(14)25341

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