Monday, May 23, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 5/23/2011

One inning, one 8-run 8th inning, away from a perfect week...

  • When the score of Monday's game reached 6-0, I had no expectation that they were going to score, never mind make it competitive, never mind win. It just had all of the feel of "one of those games," as they were coming off the sweep in NY, Lackey had gone onto the DL, and Matsuzaka had limped through four on his way to the DL. All of the circumstances combined to make that not just a good win, but a great win.
  • They followed that up with two more 1-run wins, a shutout 1-0 and then scoring three runs against Justin Verlander and beating the Detroit bullpen, after another stellar Beckett outing.
  • Since losing to Toronto on April 15 to fall to 2-10, the Red Sox are 23-11, the best record in baseball, 2 games better than Tampa and 4 1/2 games better than the Yankees. They're now 1/2 game behind those two teams in the AL East. Only the Cleveland Indians have a better record in the AL than the three AL East teams.
  • Not only was I not at all interested in the Cubs' visit to Fenway, beyond the simple fact of the Red Sox playing, I don't even understand the interest. Why would any Red Sox fan be more interested in seeing the Cubs than anyone else? Interleague play irritates me, and even more so when they try to sell something like Red Sox-Cubs as if it has some intrinsic interest beyond simply another Red Sox game.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - There were several excellent offensive performances this week, starting with Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.400/.500/1.100/1.600). Unfortunately for Jarrod, he only played three games. Adrian Gonzalez (.481/.500/.556/1.056) and David Ortiz (.320/.346/.680/1.026) were both excellent. But the most productive, and the winner of the Player of the Week award, was Kevin Youkilis (.500/.593/.950/1.543), who hit .500 with four doubles, one HR and five walks.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - I'm splitting it this week, and giving co-Pitcher of the Week awards to Clay Buchholz, who pitched seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win, and Jonathan Papelbon, who finished three games, and struck out six in three scoreless innings.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Cleveland5.18(2)3.68(3)0.651(1)291529150
New York5.22(1)4.11(7)0.608(2)27182520-2
Tampa Bay4.21(8)3.68(2)0.561(3)262126210
Texas4.36(6)4(6)0.54(4)25222423-1
Toronto4.52(4)4.28(9)0.525(5)24222323-1
Los Angeles3.94(11)3.81(5)0.515(6)25232424-1
Boston4.54(3)4.43(11)0.511(7)242225211
Oakland3.6(12)3.51(1)0.511(8)24232225-2
Detroit4.28(7)4.3(10)0.498(9)232323230
Chicago4.04(9)4.21(8)0.482(10)23252226-1
Kansas City4.52(4)4.74(12)0.479(11)222422240
Seattle3.54(13)3.74(4)0.475(12)222422240
Baltimore4.02(10)4.93(13)0.408(13)182721243
Minnesota3.4(14)5.31(14)0.307(14)143115301

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Cleveland10755
New York9072
Tampa Bay9072
Boston8874
Texas8379

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Cleveland10656
New York9666
Tampa Bay9171
Texas8676
Toronto8478

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Seattle3.57(10)1(1)0.911(1)61610
New York6.43(2)2.71(3)0.829(2)6152-1
Cleveland6.71(1)3.14(5)0.8(3)6152-1
Chicago4.86(4)2.86(4)0.725(4)52520
Boston6(3)4.17(9)0.661(5)42511
Texas2.43(13)2.14(2)0.557(6)4334-1
Minnesota4.86(4)4.29(11)0.557(6)4334-1
Toronto3.83(8)3.83(6)0.5(8)33330
Oakland4(7)4.14(7)0.484(9)3425-1
Tampa Bay3.71(9)4.14(7)0.45(10)34340
Los Angeles3.14(11)4.29(11)0.362(11)3425-1
Baltimore4.17(6)7.67(14)0.247(12)15241
Kansas City3(12)6.29(13)0.205(13)16251
Detroit1.67(14)4.17(9)0.158(14)15150

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