Monday Pythagorean, 5/23/2011

One inning, one 8-run 8th inning, away from a perfect week...

• When the score of Monday's game reached 6-0, I had no expectation that they were going to score, never mind make it competitive, never mind win. It just had all of the feel of "one of those games," as they were coming off the sweep in NY, Lackey had gone onto the DL, and Matsuzaka had limped through four on his way to the DL. All of the circumstances combined to make that not just a good win, but a great win.
• They followed that up with two more 1-run wins, a shutout 1-0 and then scoring three runs against Justin Verlander and beating the Detroit bullpen, after another stellar Beckett outing.
• Since losing to Toronto on April 15 to fall to 2-10, the Red Sox are 23-11, the best record in baseball, 2 games better than Tampa and 4 1/2 games better than the Yankees. They're now 1/2 game behind those two teams in the AL East. Only the Cleveland Indians have a better record in the AL than the three AL East teams.
• Not only was I not at all interested in the Cubs' visit to Fenway, beyond the simple fact of the Red Sox playing, I don't even understand the interest. Why would any Red Sox fan be more interested in seeing the Cubs than anyone else? Interleague play irritates me, and even more so when they try to sell something like Red Sox-Cubs as if it has some intrinsic interest beyond simply another Red Sox game.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - There were several excellent offensive performances this week, starting with Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.400/.500/1.100/1.600). Unfortunately for Jarrod, he only played three games. Adrian Gonzalez (.481/.500/.556/1.056) and David Ortiz (.320/.346/.680/1.026) were both excellent. But the most productive, and the winner of the Player of the Week award, was Kevin Youkilis (.500/.593/.950/1.543), who hit .500 with four doubles, one HR and five walks.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - I'm splitting it this week, and giving co-Pitcher of the Week awards to Clay Buchholz, who pitched seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win, and Jonathan Papelbon, who finished three games, and struck out six in three scoreless innings.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Cleveland	5.18	(2)	3.68	(3)	0.651	(1)	29	15	29	15	0
New York	5.22	(1)	4.11	(7)	0.608	(2)	27	18	25	20	-2
Tampa Bay	4.21	(8)	3.68	(2)	0.561	(3)	26	21	26	21	0
Texas	4.36	(6)	4	(6)	0.54	(4)	25	22	24	23	-1
Toronto	4.52	(4)	4.28	(9)	0.525	(5)	24	22	23	23	-1
Los Angeles	3.94	(11)	3.81	(5)	0.515	(6)	25	23	24	24	-1
Boston	4.54	(3)	4.43	(11)	0.511	(7)	24	22	25	21	1
Oakland	3.6	(12)	3.51	(1)	0.511	(8)	24	23	22	25	-2
Detroit	4.28	(7)	4.3	(10)	0.498	(9)	23	23	23	23	0
Chicago	4.04	(9)	4.21	(8)	0.482	(10)	23	25	22	26	-1
Kansas City	4.52	(4)	4.74	(12)	0.479	(11)	22	24	22	24	0
Seattle	3.54	(13)	3.74	(4)	0.475	(12)	22	24	22	24	0
Baltimore	4.02	(10)	4.93	(13)	0.408	(13)	18	27	21	24	3
Minnesota	3.4	(14)	5.31	(14)	0.307	(14)	14	31	15	30	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Cleveland	107	55
New York	90	72
Tampa Bay	90	72
Boston	88	74
Texas	83	79

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Cleveland	106	56
New York	96	66
Tampa Bay	91	71
Texas	86	76
Toronto	84	78

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Seattle	3.57	(10)	1	(1)	0.911	(1)	6	1	6	1	0
New York	6.43	(2)	2.71	(3)	0.829	(2)	6	1	5	2	-1
Cleveland	6.71	(1)	3.14	(5)	0.8	(3)	6	1	5	2	-1
Chicago	4.86	(4)	2.86	(4)	0.725	(4)	5	2	5	2	0
Boston	6	(3)	4.17	(9)	0.661	(5)	4	2	5	1	1
Texas	2.43	(13)	2.14	(2)	0.557	(6)	4	3	3	4	-1
Minnesota	4.86	(4)	4.29	(11)	0.557	(6)	4	3	3	4	-1
Toronto	3.83	(8)	3.83	(6)	0.5	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Oakland	4	(7)	4.14	(7)	0.484	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Tampa Bay	3.71	(9)	4.14	(7)	0.45	(10)	3	4	3	4	0
Los Angeles	3.14	(11)	4.29	(11)	0.362	(11)	3	4	2	5	-1
Baltimore	4.17	(6)	7.67	(14)	0.247	(12)	1	5	2	4	1
Kansas City	3	(12)	6.29	(13)	0.205	(13)	1	6	2	5	1
Detroit	1.67	(14)	4.17	(9)	0.158	(14)	1	5	1	5	0