Monday, May 02, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 5/2/2011

You know, when three of the four weeks you've seen have been under .500, it's hard to not wonder if the one over .500 week doesn't represent a fluke...

  • One of the great things about baseball is, and always has been, is that there's no such thing as a "lock." There are a lot of games that end with you thinking, "yeah, that's exactly what I expected to happen," but there are also a lot of games that you expect to go a certain way in which things turn out completely differently. When you add the Red Sox offensive struggles + Felix Hernandez + Tim Wakefield, we knew (well, I knew) that yesterday was another Boston loss. (Seriously, I wonder what kind of odds you could have gotten in Vegas for the proposition that Wakefield would outpitch Hernandez? But that's what happened...) That's just one more example of why the game is alway interesting.
  • The pitching was, for the most part, very good again. But there have been some notable bullpen failures. For the second time this season, they came back from a deficit to tie a game in the late innings with a HR, and for the second time, Bard promptly gave up the winning run in the bottom of the inning. Matsuzaka left the game (early with a stiff elbow) with a lead, and they (primarily Bobby Jenks) lost the lead and the game. Wakefield left the game with a lead after giving them more than they had any right to even hope for, never mind expect, and the bullpen (again, Bobby Jenks) promptly gave up the lead (though they did come back to win that one.)
  • For the most part, there's been no such thing as an insurmountable lead for the Boston bullpen, and no such thing as a surmountable lead for their opponents' bullpens.
  • The bullpen problems notwithstanding, obviously the issue this week continues to be the offense. The raw production was bad, as they hit .254/.313/.376/.688 as a team. Their timing was worse, as they "created" 23 1/2 runs and scored only 18. On Saturday, they were shut-out in a game in which they had 7 hits and drew 6 walks. They left the bases loaded in the first inning. They loaded the bases with no outs in the fifth and didn't score when a line drive turned into a double play.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - For the first time in his Red Sox career, Adrian Gonzalez (.417/.440/.583/1.023) is the player of the week. He's been very productive thus far, albeit in more of a Wade Boggs than a Manny Ramirez style. Long-term, I'd expect more of the latter than the former, but regardless, he's been one of the productive spots in the lineup.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Hidecki Okajima somehow threw three scoreless inning in three outings. Papelbon was good twice. Lester was good, Matt Albers threw five scoreless (but allowed an inherited runner to score.) But the award goes to Tim Wakefield for his stellar spot-start on Sunday, outpitching reigning Cy Young winner "King Felix" Hernandez with 5 2/3 scoreless (yes, there was a runner at first with two outs when he left, and Jenks allowed that runner to score) in a performance that they desperately needed.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
New York5.56(1)4.08(5)0.638(2)1691690
Los Angeles4.07(10)3.46(2)0.573(3)161216120
Tampa Bay4.29(6)3.75(4)0.561(5)16121513-1
Kansas City5.18(3)4.89(11)0.526(6)151315130

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10458
Los Angeles9369
Tampa Bay8775

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10359
Los Angeles9369
Tampa Bay9072

Standings for the week
Tampa Bay6.83(1)3.5(6)0.773(3)5142-1
Los Angeles4.83(7)2.83(2)0.727(4)42420
New York4.29(8)2.86(3)0.677(6)5243-1
Kansas City5.5(3)5.33(10)0.514(8)33330

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