Monday, October 04, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 10/4/2010

One last week, a couple more bullpen meltdowns, a couple more poor starts, a little more struggling offense, another basically .500 week, and the curtain falls on the 2010 Boston Red Sox.

  • And there's really nothing left to say. The games meant nothing, other than preventing the Yankees from winning the east (which is, frankly, not much of a thrill.) They've been playing out the string, and now it's over.
  • I will do some season wrap-ups over the course of the next couple of weeks. For now, it was a frustrating and disappointing season, and we fall back, for the first time since 2006, on "wait 'til next year!"
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Jed Lowrie, who hit a sparkling .364/.462/.682/1.143 on the week, with two HR, and did it while leading the team in AB. Honorable mention to David Ortiz (.474/.545/.684/1.230) and Mike Lowell (.462/.500/.846/1.346) in what were possibly and certainly, respectively, their final weeks in Red Sox uniforms. (I actually think it likely that Ortiz is back in 2011, but it's possible that he's done in Boston.)
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Clay Buccholz, who finished strong in his quest for the AL ERA title, albeit falling just short. His last start of the year went eight innings, allowing five hits and one run.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/4/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.3(1)4.28(5)0.597(1)97659567-2
Tampa Bay4.95(3)4.01(2)0.596(2)966696660
Minnesota4.82(5)4.14(3)0.569(3)927094682
Texas4.86(4)4.24(4)0.562(4)91719072-1
Boston5.05(2)4.59(11)0.543(5)887489731
Chicago4.64(7)4.35(8)0.53(6)867688742
Oakland4.09(11)3.86(1)0.526(7)85778181-4
Toronto4.66(6)4.49(9)0.517(8)847885771
Detroit4.64(8)4.59(10)0.505(9)82808181-1
Los Angeles4.2(9)4.33(7)0.486(10)798380821
Cleveland3.99(12)4.64(12)0.431(11)70926993-1
Kansas City4.17(10)5.22(14)0.399(12)659767952
Baltimore3.78(13)4.85(13)0.389(13)639966963
Seattle3.17(14)4.31(6)0.363(14)59103611012

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay9666
New York9567
Minnesota9468
Texas9072
Boston8973

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay9666
New York9567
Minnesota9468
Texas9072
Boston8973

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.86(3)2.71(3)0.744(1)5243-1
Toronto5.86(1)3.71(7)0.697(2)52520
Kansas City4.86(3)3.14(4)0.689(3)5243-1
Cleveland4.67(7)3.5(6)0.629(4)42420
Baltimore3.14(11)2.43(1)0.616(5)43521
Chicago4.86(3)4(8)0.588(6)43521
Los Angeles3.86(8)3.29(5)0.573(7)43521
Boston4.86(3)5(11)0.487(8)34340
Texas3.86(8)4.29(9)0.452(9)34340
New York5.17(2)6(13)0.432(10)3324-1
Tampa Bay2(14)2.57(2)0.387(11)34340
Detroit2.57(13)4.29(9)0.282(12)2516-1
Seattle3.14(11)5.43(12)0.269(13)25250
Minnesota3.43(10)6.71(14)0.226(14)25250

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