Friday, October 22, 2010

Eleven days out...

Just posted my election predictions for Ace's election prediction contest. I may change my mind on a couple of these over the next 11 days, but this is where I am now.

House - net 72 seat gain for the Republicans

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorina
CT - Blumenthal
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

Rubio 51, Crist 27, Meek 22

AK Senate - We won't know this one for a while, but, while the polls are tight, I remain skeptical of Murkowski's ability to win by write-in. It's easier to pick her in a poll than it is to actually write her name down on a ballot on which it doesn't actually appear. In any event, it'll be one of the two Republicans who wins.

CA Senate - I'm picking Fiorina based on two Geraghty posts, here and here. I think Boxer ends up with 45-46% of the vote, and loses.

CT Senate - Obviously, I'd love to be wrong on this one, but, while I think it ends up being very tight, the move from Dodd to Blumenthal saves this one for the Democrats. This may end up being a bellwether - if they're able to call it early for Blumenthal, it might not be quite the wave we're looking for - if they're able to call it early for McMahon, no Democrats are safe anywhere. I think it's likely Blumenthal by 3-4% and not over early.

DE Senate - Christine O'Donnell's issues have been vastly overplayed by the leftist media, but she's got some. She's also a bad fit, ideologically, for that state. It ends up closer than the polls have said, but the O'Donnell primary victory ends up costing the Republicans an at-least-nominal-Republican in this seat.

NV Senate - They tried to destroy Sharron Angle as an extremist whacko after the Republican primary, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at her for three months. They raised her disapproval ratings, but not enough. She wins outside the margin of fraud in one of the most satisfying individual results of the night.

WA Senate - This one is going to be very close, but my pick may be wishful thinking. Rossi may not be able to win it outside the margin of fraud, and King (I think) County is one of those places where they seem to manage to manufacture enough votes late into the night to close any gap that needs closing.

WI Senate - Three months ago, I didn't think that Feingold was particularly vulnerable, but he hasn't been close in any recent polling. This one's over early.

WV Senate - A sitting governor with strong approval ratings fails to move up because the President of his own party is so loathed in the state.

I don't think that Rubio or Kirk or Toomey are really in question.

As always, I reserve the right to revise and extend my remarks. I yield back the balance of my time.

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