Monday, April 19, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 4/19/2010

Week 2 was a dismal, dreadul week, a 1-5 week that seemed somehow even worse.

  • For the week, the horrible offense was a little worse than the horrible pitching/defense. For the season, the horrible pitching/defense has been a little worse than the horrible offense.
  • The Red Sox started the season with two centerfielders. They played most of this week without either of them, due to injury. That didn't help. Bill Hall shouldn't ever be playing against right-handed pitching, but they left themselves without any other options.
  • The game that started Friday and ended Saturday was as excruciatingly painful as it is possible for a baseball game to be. Tampa scored on back-to-back two out ground balls which weren't handled by infielders. Boston got a no out double from Ortiz with a runner on but had the runner thrown out at the plate, and ended up not scoring. The played more than two innings in dreadful weather and then, with no change in the weather, the game was suspended for the night. The next night, Ortiz missed a walk-off HR by pulling a ball about 15 feet foul. Two innings later, they loaded the bases with no outs and failed to score on a couple of ground balls. And then the Burrell HR came with a runner on, so they went to the bottom of the twelfth down two instead of just one. Just ugly in almost every way that it's possible for a game to be.
  • The Ortiz situation is very bad. But if it were just David, they'd be still scoring some runs. What's scary is that Victor Martinez has been very little better, and JD Drew's been worse. Cameron hasn't been very good, neither has Ellsbury, and both missed most of the week anyway. Youkilis started hot, but has been bad for a week and a half. It's been a very painful stretch.
  • All of that said, here's the thing to remember. If they had this two week performance in August, it would be easier to have perspective about it, because you'd be able to look at the numbers and that would not be all that there was to see. But right now, it is. So, as bad as it's been, it looks even worse.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - No one. Varitek was good, Pedroia was good, but I'm not giving anyone an award for a week that bad.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - No one. Lackey had a good start and Beckett a very good one, but I'm not giving anyone an award for a week that bad.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/19/2010
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.75(1)3.67(3)0.695(1)84931

Minnesota5.31(2)3.62(2)0.669(2)94940

Tampa Bay5.17(4)3.83(4)0.633(3)84931

Oakland4.43(6)3.36(1)0.624(4)95950

Texas3.83(11)3.83(4)0.5(5)6657-1

Toronto4.38(7)4.46(9)0.492(6)67761

Chicago4.08(8)4.23(8)0.483(7)6749-2

Detroit4.83(5)5.08(11)0.477(8)66751

Cleveland3.75(12)4.17(7)0.452(9)57661

Seattle3.46(13)3.85(6)0.452(9)67670

Kansas City5.25(3)5.92(14)0.446(11)57570

Boston4(9)5.08(11)0.392(12)5748-1

Los Angeles4(9)5.31(13)0.373(13)58671

Baltimore3.23(14)5.08(10)0.304(14)49211-2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York12240

Tampa Bay12240

Minnesota11250

Oakland10458

Detroit9567

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York11349

Minnesota10953

Tampa Bay10458

Oakland10161

Texas8082

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Tampa Bay6.33(2)2.5(1)0.846(1)51601

New York5.5(4)3(3)0.752(2)51510

Seattle4(7)2.5(1)0.703(3)42420

Minnesota6.17(3)4.33(8)0.656(4)42420

Cleveland3.83(9)3.33(5)0.564(5)33421

Kansas City6.67(1)5.83(13)0.561(6)33330

Los Angeles4.67(5)4.17(7)0.552(7)33421

Oakland3.29(11)3.14(4)0.52(8)43430

Chicago4.57(6)5(9)0.459(9)3425-1

Texas3(13)4(6)0.371(10)24240

Toronto4(7)5.71(12)0.342(11)25250

Baltimore3.29(11)5.57(11)0.276(12)2516-1

Detroit3.83(9)6.5(14)0.276(12)24240

Boston2.5(14)5.33(10)0.2(14)15150

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