Monday, January 18, 2010

More "where we stand" the day before the special election

Stu Rothenberg:
While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.

Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.


Geraghty:
We're reaching the surreal point where if Coakley wins, it might be a huge upset. Rothenberg nudges his assessment one more notch over, to "Lean Takeover" (a Brown win) and apparently this morning, a pollster from Suffolk University appeared on MSNBC, saying he had surveyed three bellwether communities across Massachusetts last night. All three showed a double-digit lead for Scott Brown.
It's not over until it's over. It's not over until it's over. It's not over until it's over.

But there's nothing - NOTHING - visible right now to suggest that Brown doesn't win tomorrow, outside the margin of fraud.

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