Monday, August 10, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 8/10/2009

There is no amount of positive thinking that can make this past week anything other than an utter disaster. Which isn't to say that there weren't some good things that happened. But there's no way that any positives can redeem an 0-6 week that sees a team fall from a first place tie to six games back in the loss column.

  • < sarcasm>Obviously, the Red Sox are a horrible organization, who have put together a horrible team, and they'll be lucky to finish with a better record than the Nationals and Royals.< /sarcasm> It was a rotten week, but that happens, even to good teams. They've got two of their starting pitchers on the DL, the Smoltz experiment failed, both of their corner outfielders are dinged up, and everyone's slumping at pretty much the same time as they've played an extended set of games on the road against good teams. The end result is ugly for the record, but the amount of panic is, as is so often the case, excessive. A month ago, this was the best team and organization in baseball, with a great mix of veterans and youth, with young players in several key spots. Today, they're "a collection of aging and ineffective hitters." It's preposterous. Sometimes things go wrong, in bunches. That's happened to the Red Sox over the past couple of weeks. It's not over, and the people talking as if it is should know better. It isn't like we haven't seen phenomena like this before.


  • As I said, dismal though the week was, there were some positives. Lester and Beckett continue to dominate, allowing only 2 runs in 20 innings against the two top run-scoring clubs in the AL. Buccholz allowed only 2 in 6 against the Yankees, his best performance of the season. The John Smoltz and Billy Traber experiments ended. These are all good things.


  • The bad things far outweighed them.


  • As pathetic as it is to score 2.33 runs per game, it was actually worse. They played two long games, more than an extra games' worth of innings, and lost both. On a per innings basis, they actually scored fewer than 2 runs per game on the week.


  • OK, I didn't do an Ortiz post. I am so heartily sick of the topic that I just cannot bear it anymore. David says he never did steroids. Based on what the union has said, his name on the list does not necessarily contradict him. Did he? Didn't he? I don't know. And. I. Do. Not. Care. I just want to stop reading about it every time I open the paper, I want to stop hearing it every time I listen to the radio or the television.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week: - Dustin Pedroia hit .240/.367/.520/.887 for the week. When I tell you that that is far and away the best offensive performance of any Sox player during the week, and that Pedroia had several opportunities to drive in runs that would win games, and failed to do so, you'll understand why this award remains vacant this week.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: - Jon Lester, who, in two starts, allowed 2 runs, 2 walks and 8 hits in 13 innings while striking out 17.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/10/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.58(2)4.73(8)0.575(1)644769425

Tampa Bay5.24(3)4.51(5)0.568(2)63486150-2

Boston5.11(5)4.43(3)0.565(3)624862480

Los Angeles5.69(1)5.07(11)0.552(4)604965445

Texas4.84(8)4.39(1)0.544(5)605062482

Toronto4.85(7)4.47(4)0.537(6)59515357-6

Detroit4.66(9)4.54(6)0.513(7)565459513

Minnesota4.95(6)4.86(9)0.508(8)56555457-2

Chicago4.66(10)4.59(7)0.507(9)575557550

Cleveland5.15(4)5.33(14)0.484(10)54574863-6

Oakland4.56(12)4.9(10)0.467(11)52594962-3

Seattle4.03(14)4.41(2)0.458(12)516058537

Baltimore4.61(11)5.29(13)0.438(13)49624665-3

Kansas City4.04(13)5.15(12)0.391(14)436843680




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10161

Los Angeles9765

Boston9171

Texas9171

Tampa Bay8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9864

Los Angeles9468

Boston9171

Tampa Bay9072

Texas9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York6.33(3)2.5(1)0.846(1)51601

Minnesota6.33(3)4.83(5)0.621(2)4224-2

Oakland5.86(6)4.57(4)0.611(3)43521

Tampa Bay6.33(3)5.33(8)0.578(4)33421

Cleveland5(8)4.33(3)0.565(5)33421

Texas4.71(11)4.14(2)0.559(6)4334-1

Seattle7(2)6.33(12)0.546(7)33421

Baltimore4.29(13)4.86(6)0.443(8)3425-1

Chicago5(8)5.67(9)0.443(8)33330

Toronto4.4(12)5(7)0.442(10)23230

Kansas City7.17(1)8.5(14)0.423(11)3325-1

Detroit5.29(7)6.29(11)0.421(12)34522

Los Angeles4.8(10)7.2(13)0.323(13)23240

Boston2.33(14)5.83(10)0.158(14)1506-1

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