Monday, July 27, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 7/27/2009

2-4, and the AL East lead went and the deficit came and the deficit increased. Losing 5 straight while your chief competitors are winning 9-of-10 is a poor strategy for success.

  • As you all know, I have spent years studying baseball, evaluating statistics, identifying the things that teams and players do that lead to wins and losses. In the course of that study, I have learned a few things. I am about to share one of them with you all now. This is a piece of hard-fought knowledge, but I have amassed a significant body of evidence in support of it, and I feel quite confident that it is, in fact, true.

    Ready?

    You can not win games if you do not score runs.

    There are some who disagree, but you can trust me - I have put years in to examination of all relevant information, and I am convinced that I am right. You want to hear a staggering number? There have been 195,323 Major League Baseball games, and zero (0) of them have been won by a team scoring 0 runs or less.

    You can not win games if you do not score runs.


  • The outfield, DH and corner infielders this week, the offensive core of the team, hit .226/.321/.301/.622. They produced just 3.34 runs per 25 outs, which is the kind of performance that results in 2-4 weeks. Luckily, the pitching was outstanding, because 0-6 isn't out of the question when you average 3 runs per game. And it was actually worse, because they did have a seven run game, which skews the average up.


  • In the last month (6/27 - 7/26) the corner outfielders, Bay and Drew, have combined to hit .164/.300/.296/.596 with 4 HR.


  • Doesn't that mean that they should panic and replace everyone? No. It's just a slump, and everyone went through it at once. They've had a rotten 10 games. That's life. This is still an excellent team, and it still has an excellent chance to be playing October baseball.


  • On the week, John Smoltz gave up 12 runs in 10 2/3 innings. The rest of the staff gave up 10 runs in 40 1/3 innings.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week No one. Sorry, I just can't do it. Lowell, Green and LaRoche produced decent offense in really limited playing time, Ellsbury created some runs but took a lot of outs to do it, and everyone else was just horrible. It's my award to give - this week, I choose not to give it.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week This is a tough choice, for the opposite reason. Whereas the offense was putrid, on the pitching staff, there is an embarrasment of riches. 8 different pitchers took the mound for at least 1 2/3 innings this week without allowing an earned run. This may seem a cop-out, but I'm giving the award to the entire bullpen again. The seven relief pitchers struck out 15 in 14 2/3 innings without allowing a run.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/27/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.05(5)4.25(1)0.579(1)564157401

New York5.54(2)4.76(9)0.57(2)564260384

Tampa Bay5.21(3)4.47(6)0.569(3)56435445-2

Los Angeles5.55(1)5(12)0.548(4)534458395

Texas4.83(7)4.4(4)0.543(5)524454422

Toronto4.83(8)4.45(5)0.537(6)53464851-5

Detroit4.62(9)4.31(3)0.532(7)524552450

Minnesota4.89(6)4.73(8)0.515(8)51484950-2

Chicago4.57(11)4.54(7)0.503(9)504951481

Cleveland5.1(4)5.39(14)0.474(10)47524158-6

Oakland4.38(12)4.78(10)0.46(11)45524156-4

Seattle3.88(14)4.27(2)0.457(12)455351476

Baltimore4.61(10)5.26(13)0.44(13)43544255-1

Kansas City3.95(13)4.99(11)0.394(14)385938590




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9963

Los Angeles9765

Boston9567

Texas9171

Tampa Bay8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9666

Boston9567

Los Angeles9468

Tampa Bay9072

Texas9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland7.33(2)3.5(4)0.795(1)51510

Texas4.17(8)2.33(1)0.743(2)42511

New York5.57(5)3.71(6)0.677(3)52611

Los Angeles8.5(1)6(10)0.654(4)42612

Chicago3.38(11)2.88(2)0.573(5)5344-1

Oakland7(3)6(10)0.57(6)4334-1

Toronto5.17(6)4.67(9)0.546(7)3324-1

Detroit3.57(9)3.29(3)0.538(8)43430

Boston3(12)3.67(5)0.409(9)24240

Tampa Bay3.43(10)4.43(8)0.385(10)34340

Minnesota5.71(4)8(14)0.351(11)25250

Baltimore3(12)4.33(7)0.338(12)2415-1

Kansas City4.2(7)7.8(13)0.244(13)14150

Seattle2.83(14)7(12)0.16(14)15241

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