Monday Pythagorean, 7/20/2009

1-2 is ... not good. But the sample size is so small that it really doesn't warrant comment.

• The pitching wasn't great, particularly Penny, but it was the offense that was the real problem. Scoring 7 runs in 3 games, in this day and age, is probably going to result in more 0-3s than 2-1s.



• The bottom line from Buccholz' start (5 2/3 innings, 1 run) was pretty good. The details (3 K, 3 BB) were not quite as pretty. On the whole, a solid but unspectacular start against a so-so team.



• I've been pretty positive about the adjustment they made in the pitching rotation. The results thus far suggest [Miniscule Sample Size Warning] that the skipped starts may end up being a negative, as Penny and Lester had both been pitching well before the break, and were less impressive in their first starts (with extended rest) afterwards. [May be coincidence, may mean nothing, but seems worth mentioning.]



• The good news is, if Boston makes it to the World Series, it will once again have home field advantage.



• Red Sox Player of the Week - None. We're talking about a 3-game week in which the team scored 7 runs. No award justified.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - If we were doing this in reverse, the worst pitcher of the week, well Penny would win. But we aren't. Again, absent something spectacular, I'm not going to give one out for a 1-2 week. There was nothing spectacular.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/20/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.19	(4)	4.29	(2)	0.586	(1)	53	38	55	36	2
Tampa Bay	5.35	(3)	4.48	(5)	0.58	(2)	53	39	51	41	-2
New York	5.54	(1)	4.84	(10)	0.562	(3)	51	40	54	37	3
Los Angeles	5.36	(2)	4.93	(12)	0.537	(4)	48	42	52	38	4
Toronto	4.81	(8)	4.44	(4)	0.536	(5)	50	43	46	47	-4
Minnesota	4.83	(7)	4.48	(5)	0.534	(6)	49	43	47	45	-2
Texas	4.88	(6)	4.53	(7)	0.533	(7)	48	42	49	41	1
Detroit	4.7	(10)	4.39	(3)	0.531	(8)	48	42	48	42	0
Chicago	4.67	(11)	4.68	(8)	0.499	(9)	45	46	47	44	2
Seattle	3.95	(13)	4.09	(1)	0.484	(10)	45	47	49	43	4
Cleveland	4.96	(5)	5.52	(14)	0.451	(11)	42	51	36	57	-6
Oakland	4.18	(12)	4.69	(9)	0.447	(12)	40	50	38	52	-2
Baltimore	4.71	(9)	5.32	(13)	0.445	(13)	40	51	41	50	1
Kansas City	3.93	(14)	4.84	(10)	0.407	(14)	37	54	37	54	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	98	64
New York	96	66
Los Angeles	94	68
Tampa Bay	90	72
Texas	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	97	65
New York	94	68
Tampa Bay	92	70
Los Angeles	91	71
Texas	87	75

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	3	(10)	1.67	(1)	0.746	(1)	2	1	3	0	1
Seattle	3.75	(7)	2.5	(3)	0.677	(2)	3	1	3	1	0
Toronto	3.33	(9)	2.33	(2)	0.658	(3)	2	1	2	1	0
Los Angeles	5.25	(4)	3.75	(7)	0.649	(4)	3	1	3	1	0
Minnesota	4	(5)	3	(4)	0.629	(5)	2	1	2	1	0
Tampa Bay	5.33	(3)	4	(9)	0.629	(6)	2	1	3	0	1
Baltimore	7	(1)	6	(13)	0.57	(7)	2	1	1	2	-1
Chicago	6	(2)	7	(14)	0.43	(8)	1	2	2	1	1
Texas	3	(10)	4	(9)	0.371	(9)	1	2	1	2	0
Kansas City	4	(5)	5.33	(12)	0.371	(9)	1	2	0	3	-1
Oakland	3.75	(7)	5.25	(11)	0.351	(11)	1	3	1	3	0
Boston	2.33	(13)	3.33	(6)	0.342	(12)	1	2	1	2	0
Cleveland	2.5	(12)	3.75	(7)	0.323	(13)	1	3	1	3	0
Detroit	1.67	(14)	3	(4)	0.254	(14)	1	2	0	3	-1