Monday, July 20, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 7/20/2009

1-2 is ... not good. But the sample size is so small that it really doesn't warrant comment.

  • The pitching wasn't great, particularly Penny, but it was the offense that was the real problem. Scoring 7 runs in 3 games, in this day and age, is probably going to result in more 0-3s than 2-1s.


  • The bottom line from Buccholz' start (5 2/3 innings, 1 run) was pretty good. The details (3 K, 3 BB) were not quite as pretty. On the whole, a solid but unspectacular start against a so-so team.


  • I've been pretty positive about the adjustment they made in the pitching rotation. The results thus far suggest [Miniscule Sample Size Warning] that the skipped starts may end up being a negative, as Penny and Lester had both been pitching well before the break, and were less impressive in their first starts (with extended rest) afterwards. [May be coincidence, may mean nothing, but seems worth mentioning.]


  • The good news is, if Boston makes it to the World Series, it will once again have home field advantage.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - None. We're talking about a 3-game week in which the team scored 7 runs. No award justified.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - If we were doing this in reverse, the worst pitcher of the week, well Penny would win. But we aren't. Again, absent something spectacular, I'm not going to give one out for a 1-2 week. There was nothing spectacular.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/20/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.19(4)4.29(2)0.586(1)533855362

Tampa Bay5.35(3)4.48(5)0.58(2)53395141-2

New York5.54(1)4.84(10)0.562(3)514054373

Los Angeles5.36(2)4.93(12)0.537(4)484252384

Toronto4.81(8)4.44(4)0.536(5)50434647-4

Minnesota4.83(7)4.48(5)0.534(6)49434745-2

Texas4.88(6)4.53(7)0.533(7)484249411

Detroit4.7(10)4.39(3)0.531(8)484248420

Chicago4.67(11)4.68(8)0.499(9)454647442

Seattle3.95(13)4.09(1)0.484(10)454749434

Cleveland4.96(5)5.52(14)0.451(11)42513657-6

Oakland4.18(12)4.69(9)0.447(12)40503852-2

Baltimore4.71(9)5.32(13)0.445(13)405141501

Kansas City3.93(14)4.84(10)0.407(14)375437540




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9864

New York9666

Los Angeles9468

Tampa Bay9072

Texas8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765

New York9468

Tampa Bay9270

Los Angeles9171

Texas8775




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York3(10)1.67(1)0.746(1)21301

Seattle3.75(7)2.5(3)0.677(2)31310

Toronto3.33(9)2.33(2)0.658(3)21210

Los Angeles5.25(4)3.75(7)0.649(4)31310

Minnesota4(5)3(4)0.629(5)21210

Tampa Bay5.33(3)4(9)0.629(6)21301

Baltimore7(1)6(13)0.57(7)2112-1

Chicago6(2)7(14)0.43(8)12211

Texas3(10)4(9)0.371(9)12120

Kansas City4(5)5.33(12)0.371(9)1203-1

Oakland3.75(7)5.25(11)0.351(11)13130

Boston2.33(13)3.33(6)0.342(12)12120

Cleveland2.5(12)3.75(7)0.323(13)13130

Detroit1.67(14)3(4)0.254(14)1203-1

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