Tuesday, October 07, 2008

NFL week 5 wrapup

Week 5 in the NFL...

  • Matt Cassell moves to 2-1 as a starting NFL quarterback, the Patriots move to 3-1, and the Dolphins beat the Chargers, which a) lessens the sting of the stinker two weeks ago, because maybe Miami's not that bad and b) suggests that the result of New England's trip to San Diego next Sunday night may not be a foregone conclusion.

  • The defense has continued to play Jekyll and Hyde football. The 49ers first two drives resulted in 4 plays, 1 yard, 1 punt and 1 interception. The next two resulted in 8 plays, 94 yards and 2 touchdowns. The next six saw the 49ers gain 19 yards on 14 plays, with four punts, another interception and the end of the first half. The next one went 80 yards on 11 plays for a touchdown. It's been feast or famine. They haven't been a "bend but don't break" defense at all this year. They've either broken or been solid. Almost every drive on which they've started to "bend" has resulted in them "breaking" for opposition touchdowns.

  • I was a fan of Jim Zorn the player - it's looking like I may end up being a fan of Jim Zorn fan the coach, too. While Washington at Philadelphia certainly wasn't the biggest mismatch on the board this week - far from it - I expected the Redskins to play at somewhat less than their best coming of the big win in Dallas. They started slowly, but never lost their composure, and came back to win a big game on the road, the second week in a row they they beat a division rival on the road.

  • Buffalo was going to lose eventually. And it isn't even that big a surprise that they'd lose to the trick or treat Cardinals. But to get blown out by 24? That was little bit surprising. As I haven't seen a single play from a single Bills game yet this year, I've no further commentary.

  • With about five minutes left in the Colts-Texans game, and Houston up by 17, I turned over to the 'Skins-Eagles. When I turned back, a little over three minutes had gone off the game clock and the Colts led by four. That's as classic a game-ending meltdown loss as you'll ever see.

  • And that catch that Reggie Wayne made to put the Colts up was amazing.

  • Indianapolis is two last-minute, seriously opponent-aided comebacks away from 0-4.

  • As of this morning, Matt Cassell's record is 3-1 and his passer rating is 84.1. Peyton Manning's record is 2-2 and his passer rating is 79.2. Just sayin'...

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:

    Tennessee at Baltimore - "Can the Ravens put up 10 points on the Tennessee defense? Maybe. Much more than that? No."

    New England at San Francisco - "The Patriots have a lot riding on this game. They are going to be, I think, significant underdogs next week in San Diego, and I think that they're going to be on the West Coast for the whole week. Another loss, particularly a loss in which the defense gets chewed up, is going to make for an unpleasant week, and the very strong potential of looking at three straight losses before October is over. But I don't see that happening. The defense tightens up, they loosen the reins on the offense a little bit, and New England wins fairly comfortably, 24-14 or so."

    Cincinnati at Dallas - "Would it surprise me to see Dallas cover this, winning in a three or four touchdown blowout? Not even a little bit. But I don't trust them to play consistent sound football, and we've seen the Bengals play tough enough to lose close to good teams before. That's what I expect to see again this week. Dallas by 7-10."

    And I want it noted that there were two "pushes" this week. I picked one of them. I didn't pick Tampa to beat the spread or Denver to cover it - I predicted the push, and was absolutely right. "The big question here, the real serious question, is this: Does Lyford have the guts to predict that this game goes into the books as a push? Yes. Yes he does. 'Three shall be the count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shall thou not count, nor shall thou count two excepting that thou shouldst then proceedeth to three. Five is right out.'" You should concentrate on that awesome pick (and ignore the rest of them...)

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):

    Chicago at Detroit - "'Ding, dong, the witch is dead. Which old witch? The Wicked Witch! Ding, dong, the Wicked Witch is dead!' And there was much rejoicing. ("But wait!" I hear you cry. "He may be gone, but he left behind a parody of an NFL team. You cannot really believe that they'll beat the might Bears this week, can you?" Yes, I can. Yes, I do.)"

    Atlanta at Green Bay - "As I'm making my picks, this game is not on the board, due to uncertainty about Mr. Rodgers. So I set the spread myself, assumed that he'd play, maybe not at full strength, and the Packers would win by two touchdowns."

  • For the week:
    Winners: 7-7
    ATS: 7-6-1

  • For the season:
    Winners: 46-28
    ATS: 41-31-2

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