Monday, September 29, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 9/29/2008

So the curtain falls on another regular season in Major League Baseball...

  • Well, almost. There's at least one more game, as Chicago and Detroit play a make up game today, the result of which will determine whether Chicago needs to play another game tomorrow, against the Twins. If the White Sox win twice, they win the Central and play at Tampa on Thursday. If they lose either, the Twins win the Central and play at Tampa on Thursday.

  • Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway, last day of the regular season, going into extra innings. And I found out the result in the paper this morning. As I lay in bed with the TV on, I began to wonder, "why am I watching David Robertson face Gil Velazquez in a game that means nothing?" When the Red Sox didn't score in the bottom of the ninth, that seemed like way more than enough.

  • Technically, Red Sox games were not irrelevant until yesterday. They hadn't clinched the Wild Card until Tuesday, or lost the chance to win the division until Friday. Realistically, the week was effectively extended spring training.

  • In these reports, I call it "luck." More specifically, what we're talking about is run distribution. Obviously, scoring more runs and allowing fewer is a good thing, and teams that score more runs and allow fewer should win more games than teams that score fewer and allow more. And when two teams have similar run distributions, the team with the lower runs scored/allowed has a higher projected winning percentage. 20 runs is a bigger gap at 60-40 than at 160-140. So how depressing is this outcome for the Toronto Blue Jays? They allowed 61 runs fewer runs than Tampa, while scoring 60 fewer. So they had a higher Pythagorean winning percentage, but Tampa won the East, and the Blue Jays finished in fourth place. The Blue Jays underperformed by 7 games, the Rays overperformed by 5, and Toronto finished 11 games behind Tampa instead of 1 game ahead.

  • I hope to do a regular season wrap-up post this week. Hopefully tomorrow, so I can do a playoff preview on Wednesday.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/29/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.22(2)4.28(3)0.589(1)956795670

Toronto4.41(11)3.77(1)0.572(2)93698676-7

Tampa Bay4.78(9)4.14(2)0.565(3)927097655

Minnesota5.12(3)4.59(8)0.549(4)89738874-1

Chicago4.98(5)4.52(7)0.545(5)88738774-1

Los Angeles4.72(10)4.3(5)0.542(6)88741006212

New York4.87(7)4.49(6)0.537(7)877589732

Cleveland4.97(6)4.7(9)0.526(8)85778181-4

Detroit5.09(4)5.27(12)0.484(9)78837487-4

Oakland4.01(14)4.29(4)0.47(10)76857586-1

Texas5.56(1)5.97(14)0.468(11)768679833

Baltimore4.86(8)5.4(13)0.452(12)73886893-5

Kansas City4.27(12)4.82(10)0.444(13)729075873

Seattle4.14(13)5.01(11)0.414(14)679561101-6




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10062

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9567

New York8973

Minnesota8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Los Angeles10062

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9567

New York8973

Minnesota8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Kansas City5.5(5)2.5(2)0.809(1)51510

Texas7.17(1)4(4)0.744(2)42420

Toronto4.17(13)2.33(1)0.743(3)4233-1

New York6.5(2)4.17(5)0.693(4)42420

Minnesota4.67(9)3.83(3)0.589(5)42420

Tampa Bay5.88(3)4.88(7)0.585(6)53530

Seattle5.71(4)4.86(6)0.574(7)43430

Cleveland5.29(6)5.43(8)0.488(8)34340

Los Angeles4.57(10)5.57(9)0.41(9)34431

Boston4.71(8)5.86(10)0.402(10)34431

Detroit4.29(12)5.86(10)0.361(11)34340

Chicago5(7)7.17(13)0.341(12)2415-1

Oakland4.33(11)7.33(14)0.276(13)2415-1

Baltimore2.57(14)5.86(10)0.181(14)16160

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