Monday, August 18, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 8/18/2008

Good start, bad finish...

  • The Red Sox had two separate games in which they allowed 15 or more runs during the week. This is very unusual and extremely bad. They went .500 in those two games. This is close to miraculous.


  • When Charlie Zink gave up 8 runs in 4 1/3 innings in his Major League debut against the Rangers, Red Sox fans could be forgiven for expecting that they'd seen the Sox' worst starting pitching performance of the week. They were wrong. Their ace, Josh Beckett, allowed the same number of runs in two fewer innings to a vastly inferior offensive team. That performance yesterday was ugly.


  • Three games against Texas - 37 runs scored.


  • Three games against Chicago and Toronto - 11 runs scored.


  • And yet somehow Texas, having allowed nearly 100 runs more than anyone else in baseball, is only one game under .500.


  • A team can have long periods of mediocre play and still end up with a successful season. But you don't know until afterwards whether that's the case - during the mediocre stretch, the team just looks mediocre. Or worse. Boston's now 27-25 since the middle of June, and they haven't done anything to look like they're going to put together the big run. Which does now, of course, mean that they won't - the big run almost invariably follows a stretch in which the big run looks unlikely. But watching them right now is a frustrating experience.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/18/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.14(2)4.22(5)0.589(1)73517153-2

Chicago5.05(5)4.31(6)0.572(2)705370530

Tampa Bay4.59(10)3.99(2)0.563(3)695475486

Los Angeles4.72(8)4.21(4)0.552(4)675576469

Toronto4.33(11)3.93(1)0.545(5)68566460-4

Minnesota5.07(4)4.66(9)0.538(6)665770534

New York4.85(7)4.47(7)0.537(7)67576658-1

Detroit5.03(6)4.96(11)0.507(8)63616064-3

Baltimore5.11(3)5.06(13)0.504(9)62616063-2

Cleveland4.69(9)4.65(8)0.504(10)62615667-6

Oakland3.97(14)4.03(3)0.493(11)61625667-5

Texas5.56(1)6.06(14)0.461(12)586762634

Seattle4.2(12)4.96(10)0.424(13)52714677-6

Kansas City4.11(13)4.99(12)0.412(14)517355694




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10161

Tampa Bay9963

Boston9369

Chicago9270

Minnesota9270




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Los Angeles9864

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9369

Chicago9270

Minnesota9171




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota5.62(3)4.11(2)0.639(1)341936172

Los Angeles5.46(5)4.29(5)0.609(2)322034182

Tampa Bay4.65(11)3.76(1)0.596(3)322235193

Boston5.12(7)4.27(4)0.582(4)30222725-3

New York5.07(8)4.43(6)0.562(5)30242925-1

Toronto4.74(10)4.15(3)0.56(6)30232924-1

Chicago5.69(2)5.09(10)0.55(7)302432222

Baltimore6.05(1)5.65(13)0.531(8)29262629-3

Detroit5.38(6)5.05(9)0.529(9)29262827-1

Cleveland4.85(9)5.17(11)0.471(10)25282330-2

Seattle4.57(12)4.98(8)0.461(11)25292232-3

Texas5.57(4)6.35(14)0.441(12)243027273

Kansas City4.39(13)5.33(12)0.412(13)223227275

Oakland3.35(14)4.52(7)0.367(14)20341836-2

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