Monday Pythagorean 8/18/2008

Good start, bad finish...

• The Red Sox had two separate games in which they allowed 15 or more runs during the week. This is very unusual and extremely bad. They went .500 in those two games. This is close to miraculous.



• When Charlie Zink gave up 8 runs in 4 1/3 innings in his Major League debut against the Rangers, Red Sox fans could be forgiven for expecting that they'd seen the Sox' worst starting pitching performance of the week. They were wrong. Their ace, Josh Beckett, allowed the same number of runs in two fewer innings to a vastly inferior offensive team. That performance yesterday was ugly.



• Three games against Texas - 37 runs scored.



• Three games against Chicago and Toronto - 11 runs scored.



• And yet somehow Texas, having allowed nearly 100 runs more than anyone else in baseball, is only one game under .500.



• A team can have long periods of mediocre play and still end up with a successful season. But you don't know until afterwards whether that's the case - during the mediocre stretch, the team just looks mediocre. Or worse. Boston's now 27-25 since the middle of June, and they haven't done anything to look like they're going to put together the big run. Which does now, of course, mean that they won't - the big run almost invariably follows a stretch in which the big run looks unlikely. But watching them right now is a frustrating experience.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/18/2008

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.14	(2)	4.22	(5)	0.589	(1)	73	51	71	53	-2
Chicago	5.05	(5)	4.31	(6)	0.572	(2)	70	53	70	53	0
Tampa Bay	4.59	(10)	3.99	(2)	0.563	(3)	69	54	75	48	6
Los Angeles	4.72	(8)	4.21	(4)	0.552	(4)	67	55	76	46	9
Toronto	4.33	(11)	3.93	(1)	0.545	(5)	68	56	64	60	-4
Minnesota	5.07	(4)	4.66	(9)	0.538	(6)	66	57	70	53	4
New York	4.85	(7)	4.47	(7)	0.537	(7)	67	57	66	58	-1
Detroit	5.03	(6)	4.96	(11)	0.507	(8)	63	61	60	64	-3
Baltimore	5.11	(3)	5.06	(13)	0.504	(9)	62	61	60	63	-2
Cleveland	4.69	(9)	4.65	(8)	0.504	(10)	62	61	56	67	-6
Oakland	3.97	(14)	4.03	(3)	0.493	(11)	61	62	56	67	-5
Texas	5.56	(1)	6.06	(14)	0.461	(12)	58	67	62	63	4
Seattle	4.2	(12)	4.96	(10)	0.424	(13)	52	71	46	77	-6
Kansas City	4.11	(13)	4.99	(12)	0.412	(14)	51	73	55	69	4

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Los Angeles	101	61
Tampa Bay	99	63
Boston	93	69
Chicago	92	70
Minnesota	92	70

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Los Angeles	98	64
Tampa Bay	97	65
Boston	93	69
Chicago	92	70
Minnesota	91	71

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Minnesota	5.62	(3)	4.11	(2)	0.639	(1)	34	19	36	17	2
Los Angeles	5.46	(5)	4.29	(5)	0.609	(2)	32	20	34	18	2
Tampa Bay	4.65	(11)	3.76	(1)	0.596	(3)	32	22	35	19	3
Boston	5.12	(7)	4.27	(4)	0.582	(4)	30	22	27	25	-3
New York	5.07	(8)	4.43	(6)	0.562	(5)	30	24	29	25	-1
Toronto	4.74	(10)	4.15	(3)	0.56	(6)	30	23	29	24	-1
Chicago	5.69	(2)	5.09	(10)	0.55	(7)	30	24	32	22	2
Baltimore	6.05	(1)	5.65	(13)	0.531	(8)	29	26	26	29	-3
Detroit	5.38	(6)	5.05	(9)	0.529	(9)	29	26	28	27	-1
Cleveland	4.85	(9)	5.17	(11)	0.471	(10)	25	28	23	30	-2
Seattle	4.57	(12)	4.98	(8)	0.461	(11)	25	29	22	32	-3
Texas	5.57	(4)	6.35	(14)	0.441	(12)	24	30	27	27	3
Kansas City	4.39	(13)	5.33	(12)	0.412	(13)	22	32	27	27	5
Oakland	3.35	(14)	4.52	(7)	0.367	(14)	20	34	18	36	-2