Monday, August 04, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 8/4/2008

Well, for one weekend at least, the trade didn't hurt...

  • Not only did they go 3-0 with Jason Bay replacing Manny in the lineup, they did it with Bay being a key component of the wins. Friday night, he reached base four times (2 BB, HBP, 3B) and scored both runs in the Red Sox 12 inning 2-1 win. Saturday night, his first inning 3-run homer broke a 2-2 tie and set the tone for the game. (I told my 10-year old, when he hit it, that the Sox would win because Oakland wasn't going to get to five.) And he had two more hits and scored two more runs in Sunday's 5-2 win.


  • It's important to note that it was just Oakland.


  • The beginning of the week was gruesome. But that was apparently a different team. Where dark clouds and wailing and gnashing of teeth previously reigned, all is now sweetness and light. It was all Manny's fault - I know that now.


  • Yes, that was sarcasm. Many people in the media are trying to make the excuse that everything that happened during the Angels series was Manny's fault. Manny's difficult, Manny's a distraction. The veterans gathered (allegedly) and told Theo that Manny must go. Let me just say this - if Mike Lowell makes an error because he's "distracted" by Manny's behavior, that's Mike Lowell's problem and Mike Lowell's fault, not Manny's. If Jason Varitek is striking out four times because of Manny, shame on Jason Varitek. Obviously, shame on Manny for his behavior, but shame on the rest of them for letting it "distract" them from doing what they need to do.


  • And if the veterans really did tell Theo that Manny needed to go, isn't that the kind of "inmates running the asylum" behavior that the Boston media has long been wont to condemn? They don't seem to be condemning it this time. I remain unconvinced that the front office handled this as well as it could have been handled.


  • All that said, I think Boston is probably still the likely winner of the AL East. I'm just a little bit less confident of that than I was a week ago.


  • Since April 25, Jonathan Lester has made 17 starts and pitched 114 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA (and 3 unearned runs allowed). Johan Santana has made 18 starts and pitched 119 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA (and 7 unearned runs allowed). Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/4/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston4.97(4)4.12(4)0.586(1)66466448-2

Chicago5(3)4.41(7)0.557(2)614961490

Tampa Bay4.49(10)4.03(3)0.55(3)605066446

New York4.89(6)4.39(6)0.549(4)615061500

Los Angeles4.62(9)4.21(5)0.543(5)605169429

Toronto4.28(11)4.02(2)0.529(6)59525556-4

Minnesota4.93(5)4.63(9)0.528(7)595262493

Oakland4.13(13)3.88(1)0.528(8)58525357-5

Detroit5.05(2)4.88(12)0.515(9)57545556-2

Cleveland4.65(8)4.63(8)0.502(10)55554862-7

Baltimore4.85(7)5.02(13)0.485(11)535753570

Texas5.63(1)5.91(14)0.478(12)545858544

Kansas City4.28(12)4.84(11)0.444(13)506252602

Seattle4.05(14)4.72(10)0.43(14)48634269-6




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10161

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9369

Chicago9072

Minnesota9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Los Angeles9765

Tampa Bay9567

Boston9369

Chicago9072

New York8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Kansas City6.33(5)3.5(2)0.747(1)42511

Tampa Bay4.5(12)2.5(1)0.746(2)42511

Minnesota5.29(8)3.86(3)0.64(3)43521

Los Angeles6.57(3)5.29(6)0.598(4)43521

Baltimore7.4(2)6.8(11)0.539(5)32421

New York8.5(1)7.83(13)0.537(6)33340

Cleveland5.57(7)5.29(6)0.524(7)4334-1

Boston4.67(11)4.5(4)0.517(8)33330

Seattle6(6)6(9)0.5(9)4334-1

Texas6.57(3)6.57(10)0.5(9)43430

Toronto3.83(13)4.67(5)0.411(11)24240

Detroit5.14(9)7.29(12)0.346(12)25250

Chicago5(10)8(14)0.297(13)24250

Oakland2(14)5.33(8)0.142(14)1506-1

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