Monday, July 28, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 7/28/2008

A nice quiet week, with a good 4-2 record. Nothing to talk about...

Yeah, right.

  • The sweep in Seattle was noteworthy for two reasons, that it allowed them to come home with a .500 record on their post-All Star Game road trip, and that it has faded utterly from memory less than a week later.


  • Oh, and Manny took one of his "mental health days" in the last game of the trip.


  • So. We have to talk about Manny. Again. Let me just say this: He has been one of the best and most valuable players in baseball over the length of his contract. The Red Sox have one of the best records in baseball over the length of his contract. They've won two World Series, and are a top contender to win a third while Manny's been here. Manny's hit .321/.422/.558/.980 in 43 post-season games. By all accounts, he's a hard worker. He's a mediocre (or worse) outfielder, but one of the best hitters in the game. Since Manny put on a Red Sox uniform, he's one of four Major League players with 1000 hits, 500 BB, 250 HR, 800 RBI and 700 runs scored. He's hit .312/.411/.588/.999. He's 8th in OBP, 5th in SLG, 4th in HR and 3rd in RBI. He's not a perfect player or a perfect teammate, and the two-three "mental health days" that he takes must be irritating for the rest of the team. That said, the positive vastly exceeds the negative, and any legitimate criticism of him in the Boston press is quickly drowned out by the over-the-top and incredibly tiresome Manny-bashing. WEEI ends up spending a week every season, devoting 24 hours a day to all of the reasons that Manny should be run out of town. It tired, irritating, and, even worse, boring. It's been done, guys - give it a rest...


  • Obviously disappointing to lose two of three to the Yankees, but those things happen. I hate whining about the umpiring, but Marty Foster did not have a good night on Friday. There were at least four Red Sox batters called out, including two of the last six, on pitches that were clearly well out of the strike zone. Saturday was just a "Wakefield doesn't have it" game, and that's what those look like. Sunday was the reverse. Overall, the Yankees picked up one game over the three-game series. Not a big deal.


  • Since April 24, Jon Lester has started 16 games. He's 8-1 with a 2.51 ERA. He's pitched 107 2/3 innings, striking out 80 and only walking 26. Among pitchers with 10+ starts over that span, he's 7th in ERA. Johann Santana, for whom Lester was not traded in the off-season, is 12th with a 2.87 ERA.


  • I mentioned the Yankees grueling travel schedule last week. Well, after having finally left home (for three games only, visiting a city which is a 45 minute flight away) they're right back in the Stadium. A week from today, they'll have 19 left at home and 32 on the road.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/28/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston4.99(4)4.09(3)0.59(1)62446145-1

Chicago5(3)4.2(7)0.579(2)60435944-1

Oakland4.25(12)3.8(1)0.551(3)57475351-4

New York4.68(7)4.19(6)0.55(4)574758461

Tampa Bay4.49(9)4.12(4)0.54(5)564861435

Los Angeles4.49(9)4.13(5)0.538(6)564864408

Toronto4.3(11)3.98(2)0.536(7)56495352-3

Detroit5.04(2)4.72(11)0.53(8)55495351-2

Minnesota4.9(5)4.68(10)0.521(9)545057473

Cleveland4.58(8)4.58(8)0.5(10)52514558-7

Baltimore4.73(6)4.93(13)0.481(11)50544955-1

Texas5.57(1)5.87(14)0.476(12)505554514

Kansas City4.16(13)4.92(12)0.424(13)456147592

Seattle3.91(14)4.63(9)0.423(14)44603965-5




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10062

Tampa Bay9567

Boston9369

Chicago9369

New York9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Los Angeles9567

Boston9468

Chicago9369

Tampa Bay9270

New York9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit8.33(1)3.83(3)0.806(1)5142-1

New York6.33(3)3.17(2)0.78(2)51510

Boston4.33(10)3(1)0.662(3)42420

Toronto5.57(6)4.29(5)0.618(4)43521

Texas7.33(2)6.17(10)0.579(5)33330

Chicago6.33(3)5.5(7)0.564(6)33421

Los Angeles6.33(3)5.67(8)0.551(7)33421

Tampa Bay3.14(12)3.86(4)0.407(8)34431

Baltimore4.86(7)6.29(12)0.384(9)3425-1

Cleveland4.83(8)6.33(13)0.379(10)24240

Oakland4.5(9)6.17(10)0.36(11)24240

Minnesota4.33(10)6(9)0.355(12)24240

Seattle2.83(14)4.67(6)0.286(13)2415-1

Kansas City3.14(12)6.57(14)0.206(14)16251

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