Monday, June 30, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 6/30/2008

Another 3-3 week drops Boston into second place, as the Rays beat up on the NL dregs, and the Red Sox fail to.

  • Interleague play is over for another year (excepting the All Star and World Series games). Good. I hate interleague play. And I hate pitchers batting.


  • Over the next week, Boston plays 3 at Tampa and 4 at Yankee Stadium. It would be useful for them to actually put together a week with everyone playing well, as opposed to the 2-3 players red hot and everyone else ice cold that we've seen for the past month. This week, it was Pedroia, Lowell, Youkilis and Crisp who hit, combining on a 0.464/.495/.690/1.185 line, while the rest of the team hit 0.177/.278/0.290/.568. Some of that is the pitchers over the weekend, but a lot of it is the heart of the order, (Drew - .118/.304/.294/.598 and Ramirez - .217/.308/.391/.699) and the top (Ellsbury - .227/.292/.318/.610) and bottom (Lugo - .263/.364/.316/.680) of the order. You're never going to actually have everyone hot at once, so that's OK - it's the degree to which the not-hot hitters are not-hot that's really hurting.


  • Speaking of hurting offensively, Jason Varitek is now hitting .127/.215/.183/.398 in June, and .132/.218/.187/.405 in his last 101 plate appearances since May 25.


  • I was getting ready to put together the obligatory "has Jon Lester reached a new level of performance" post when he gave up six runs in five innings on Saturday. But it will still be coming, I think, as the answer appears to be "yes."


  • John Perrotto had a note at Baseball Prospectus yesterday about the Yankees pitching, and how they've "allowed an average of 4.2 runs per game since May 21, after allowing 4.6 before." Well, yes, that's true. It's relevant to consider, though, just who they've done it against. That stretch includes three games against the San Diego Padres (3.64 runs/game, 29th in MLB), four against the Kansas City Royals (4.09, 27th), three against Seattle (4.09, 25th) and three against Toronto (4.14, 24th). All told, six of their eleven opponents over that stretch are in the bottom third in runs/game, and only two of the eleven are in the top third. So, yes, their pitching has been better. But context suggests that a significant part of their improvement is a result of facing lousy offenses.


  • With interleague play over, the Yankees have missed a big opportunity to make up ground on Boston. They're still 5 games back, despite the schedule advantage that they've enjoyed thus far. New York went 10-7 vs. the NL, while Boston went 11-7. (Tampa went 12-6).




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/30/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago4.83(4)3.79(2)0.609(1)49324635-3

Boston5.05(2)4.18(6)0.586(2)493550341

Oakland4.41(9)3.68(1)0.582(3)47344437-3

Tampa Bay4.72(6)4.04(5)0.571(4)463549323

Toronto4.14(12)3.81(3)0.539(5)45384043-5

New York4.7(7)4.44(8)0.526(6)433944381

Los Angeles4.15(11)4(4)0.516(7)424049337

Cleveland4.4(10)4.27(7)0.514(8)42403745-5

Minnesota4.8(5)4.7(11)0.511(9)424045373

Detroit4.85(3)4.8(12)0.505(10)414041400

Baltimore4.49(8)4.53(9)0.496(11)404041391

Texas5.49(1)5.63(14)0.489(12)414242411

Kansas City4.09(14)4.66(10)0.44(13)364637451

Seattle4.09(13)4.81(13)0.426(14)34473150-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay9864

Los Angeles9765

Boston9666

Chicago9270

Minnesota8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9666

Chicago9567

Tampa Bay9567

Oakland9171

Los Angeles9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Seattle6(2)2.67(2)0.815(1)51510

Tampa Bay7.33(1)3.33(7)0.809(2)51510

Toronto6(2)2.83(3)0.798(3)5142-1

Chicago4.83(8)2.5(1)0.77(4)51510

Minnesota4.83(8)3(5)0.705(5)42511

Baltimore5.83(4)4(9)0.666(6)4233-1

Kansas City5.5(6)4.17(10)0.624(7)42420

Detroit5.5(6)4.5(11)0.591(8)42511

New York5.67(5)5.33(14)0.528(9)33330

Boston4.83(8)4.83(12)0.5(10)33330

Los Angeles2.67(13)2.83(3)0.472(11)33330

Texas4.5(11)4.83(12)0.467(12)33330

Cleveland3(12)3.67(8)0.409(13)24240

Oakland2.5(14)3.17(6)0.394(14)24331

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