Another 3-3 week drops Boston into second place, as the Rays beat up on the NL dregs, and the Red Sox fail to.
- Interleague play is over for another year (excepting the All Star and World Series games). Good. I hate interleague play. And I hate pitchers batting.
- Over the next week, Boston plays 3 at Tampa and 4 at Yankee Stadium. It would be useful for them to actually put together a week with everyone playing well, as opposed to the 2-3 players red hot and everyone else ice cold that we've seen for the past month. This week, it was Pedroia, Lowell, Youkilis and Crisp who hit, combining on a 0.464/.495/.690/1.185 line, while the rest of the team hit 0.177/.278/0.290/.568. Some of that is the pitchers over the weekend, but a lot of it is the heart of the order, (Drew - .118/.304/.294/.598 and Ramirez - .217/.308/.391/.699) and the top (Ellsbury - .227/.292/.318/.610) and bottom (Lugo - .263/.364/.316/.680) of the order. You're never going to actually have everyone hot at once, so that's OK - it's the degree to which the not-hot hitters are not-hot that's really hurting.
- Speaking of hurting offensively, Jason Varitek is now hitting .127/.215/.183/.398 in June, and .132/.218/.187/.405 in his last 101 plate appearances since May 25.
- I was getting ready to put together the obligatory "has Jon Lester reached a new level of performance" post when he gave up six runs in five innings on Saturday. But it will still be coming, I think, as the answer appears to be "yes."
- John Perrotto had a note at Baseball Prospectus yesterday about the Yankees pitching, and how they've "allowed an average of 4.2 runs per game since May 21, after allowing 4.6 before." Well, yes, that's true. It's relevant to consider, though, just who they've done it against. That stretch includes three games against the San Diego Padres (3.64 runs/game, 29th in MLB), four against the Kansas City Royals (4.09, 27th), three against Seattle (4.09, 25th) and three against Toronto (4.14, 24th). All told, six of their eleven opponents over that stretch are in the bottom third in runs/game, and only two of the eleven are in the top third. So, yes, their pitching has been better. But context suggests that a significant part of their improvement is a result of facing lousy offenses.
- With interleague play over, the Yankees have missed a big opportunity to make up ground on Boston. They're still 5 games back, despite the schedule advantage that they've enjoyed thus far. New York went 10-7 vs. the NL, while Boston went 11-7. (Tampa went 12-6).
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/30/2008
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Chicago | 4.83 | (4) | 3.79 | (2) | 0.609 | (1) | 49 | 32 | 46 | 35 | -3
| | Boston | 5.05 | (2) | 4.18 | (6) | 0.586 | (2) | 49 | 35 | 50 | 34 | 1
| | Oakland | 4.41 | (9) | 3.68 | (1) | 0.582 | (3) | 47 | 34 | 44 | 37 | -3
| | Tampa Bay | 4.72 | (6) | 4.04 | (5) | 0.571 | (4) | 46 | 35 | 49 | 32 | 3
| | Toronto | 4.14 | (12) | 3.81 | (3) | 0.539 | (5) | 45 | 38 | 40 | 43 | -5
| | New York | 4.7 | (7) | 4.44 | (8) | 0.526 | (6) | 43 | 39 | 44 | 38 | 1
| | Los Angeles | 4.15 | (11) | 4 | (4) | 0.516 | (7) | 42 | 40 | 49 | 33 | 7
| | Cleveland | 4.4 | (10) | 4.27 | (7) | 0.514 | (8) | 42 | 40 | 37 | 45 | -5
| | Minnesota | 4.8 | (5) | 4.7 | (11) | 0.511 | (9) | 42 | 40 | 45 | 37 | 3
| | Detroit | 4.85 | (3) | 4.8 | (12) | 0.505 | (10) | 41 | 40 | 41 | 40 | 0
| | Baltimore | 4.49 | (8) | 4.53 | (9) | 0.496 | (11) | 40 | 40 | 41 | 39 | 1
| | Texas | 5.49 | (1) | 5.63 | (14) | 0.489 | (12) | 41 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 1
| | Kansas City | 4.09 | (14) | 4.66 | (10) | 0.44 | (13) | 36 | 46 | 37 | 45 | 1
| | Seattle | 4.09 | (13) | 4.81 | (13) | 0.426 | (14) | 34 | 47 | 31 | 50 | -3
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Tampa Bay | 98 | 64
|
| Los Angeles | 97 | 65
|
| Boston | 96 | 66
|
| Chicago | 92 | 70
|
| Minnesota | 89 | 73
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 96 | 66
|
| Chicago | 95 | 67
|
| Tampa Bay | 95 | 67
|
| Oakland | 91 | 71
|
| Los Angeles | 90 | 72
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Seattle | 6 | (2) | 2.67 | (2) | 0.815 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 7.33 | (1) | 3.33 | (7) | 0.809 | (2) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0
| | Toronto | 6 | (2) | 2.83 | (3) | 0.798 | (3) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1
| | Chicago | 4.83 | (8) | 2.5 | (1) | 0.77 | (4) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0
| | Minnesota | 4.83 | (8) | 3 | (5) | 0.705 | (5) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1
| | Baltimore | 5.83 | (4) | 4 | (9) | 0.666 | (6) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1
| | Kansas City | 5.5 | (6) | 4.17 | (10) | 0.624 | (7) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Detroit | 5.5 | (6) | 4.5 | (11) | 0.591 | (8) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1
| | New York | 5.67 | (5) | 5.33 | (14) | 0.528 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Boston | 4.83 | (8) | 4.83 | (12) | 0.5 | (10) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Los Angeles | 2.67 | (13) | 2.83 | (3) | 0.472 | (11) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Texas | 4.5 | (11) | 4.83 | (12) | 0.467 | (12) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Cleveland | 3 | (12) | 3.67 | (8) | 0.409 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| | Oakland | 2.5 | (14) | 3.17 | (6) | 0.394 | (14) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1
| |
|---|
Labels: 2008, MLB, pythagorean, Red Sox
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