Tuesday, December 11, 2007

NFL week 14 wrapup

Week 12 in the NFL...

  • There's a lot of noise on WEEI this week (well, there has been all season, it's just elevated now that Jets week is actually here) about how badly the Patriots are going to beat the Jets. People talking about single-game scoring records, about the Patriots beating them 73-0. It's silly. NFL blowouts require both parties to participate, and if the Jets come out and play well, it won't be a historic game. If they Jets don't turn the ball over, if they don't allow receivers to run free in the secondary, if they tackle, the Patriots won't score 60+ - there isn't enough time in the game.

  • That doesn't mean that it will be close. If the Patriots play well, they win handily. They're a much better team. And one of the interesting questions is whether Tom Brady gets the 5 TD passes he needs to break the record this week. And whether the team scores the 53 points it needs to break the scoring record. Weather permitting, neither one of those things would shock me.

  • As things stand right now, the New England Patriots would have the number 2 pick in the 2008 NFL draft.

  • I've been saying for weeks that the Dolphins would win a game. I'm no longer sure of that. Though they host the Ravens this week, who put up an utterly embarrassing performance against Indianapolis on Sunday night. They obviously spent everything that they had left last Monday against New England.

  • "Fall on the ball. Don't try to pick up a fumble, just fall on it." If Detroit linebacker Paris Lenon had followed that bit of football 101 wisdom, the Cowboys would have 2 losses today. As it was, he tried to pick up Romo's fumble, kicked it backwards directly to a Dallas lineman, who promptly...fell on the ball. It was then fourth and long, but I turned to my sons and said, "Detroit just lost the game." I was right.

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and if I ever apply for a real pundit job, this will be the week I submit as my resume, as it was hugely successful, my best week ever.):

    Carolina at Jacksonville - "As much as I don't care for the Jaguars giving more than 10, the Panthers are just pathetic."

    San Diego at Tennessee - "San Diego is getting ready to clinch its division, the Titans are one of four teams fighting for two AFC Wild Card slots. It took a while for San Diego to get it figured out with the new coaching staff, and they aren't what people thought they were going to be, or a real threat in the playoffs, but they'll win this one."

    Pittsburgh at New England - "I'm seeing more and more people pick Pittsburgh, which makes me more and more comfortable with my feeling that the Patriots win by two touchdowns or more."

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite) (and there's not much this week, as even the wrong picks were sufficiently weaseled to contain good stuff):

    NY Giants at Philadelphia - "AJ Feeley last week put the Eagles' fans back into "support Donovan McNabb" mode. McNabb comes back, the Eagles run the ball with Westbrook, and the Eagles play-off hopes live for another week."

    Tampa Bay at Houston - "Tampa Bay's a better team, Houston's at home, I don't care. Not even a little bit.
    Buccaneers win, and I don't care,
    Buccaneers win, and I don't care..."

  • For the week:
    Winners: 14-2
    ATS: 11-5-0

  • For the season:
    Winners: 138-70
    ATS: 110-88-10

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