Monday, October 02, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 10/2/2006

And so the regular season ends with the Red Sox, out of the play-offs for the first time in 4 years, and out of 2nd place for the first time in 9 years. They finished at 86-76, a record better than they actually played, as they allowed more runs than they scored. A lot of different factors went into the final record, and I'll be addressing some of them over the next week or so. The biggest factor involved with them falling out of play-off contention, back in August, was health. Those things happen. And the record in September might have been better, but they were realistic about it, and took an opportunity to get something for David Wells. They didn't rush Jonathan Papelbon back into the lineup. They didn't rush Schilling back. I don't have a problem with any of that - they were still mathematically alive on August 31, but not realistically. So they played for next year. Which made sense.

Anyway, as I say, I'll be doing a wrap-up over the course of the next week.

But a couple of quick thoughts:

- The season goes into the books as a disappointment. The fact that the Red Sox can legitimately be disappointed with an 86 win season following 3 consecutive play-off appearances speaks volumes to how spoiled Boston fans are. It's important not to get too caught up in the "hey, look at those guys down the road - woe is us!" mentality, because Boston's had it better over the past 5 years than anyone else in MLB. Other than the guys down the road. And the Red Sox have won a World Series in that span, unlike the guys down the road (though they might do it this year.)

- 2002-2006 - There are 3 teams with more wins over that stretch than Boston - NYY, St. Louis, and Oakland. The Braves are tied. Boston has won a World Series. 3 of the other 4 have a chance this year, but none has won one. This has been a golden age of Boston baseball, and that fact should not be obscured by a disappointing finish to 2006.

- That disappointing Red Sox team finished ahead of St. Louis, who made the play-offs, and Philadelphia, who were eliminated the day before the season ended. They ended up two games worse than San Diego and LA who both made the play-offs, and were ahead of both when September started. Perspective remains important. Yes, from the Red Sox fan perspective, with the lead through late-July and the cratering of August, the season was a disaster. It's important to realize that "disaster" is a very relative term...




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/2/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.07(5)4.17(1)0.589(1)956795670

New York5.74(1)4.73(6)0.587(2)956797652

Minnesota4.94(8)4.22(2)0.572(3)936996663

Cleveland5.37(2)4.83(7)0.549(4)89737884-11

Chicago5.36(3)4.9(10)0.541(5)887490722

Toronto4.99(7)4.65(5)0.532(6)867687751

Texas5.15(4)4.84(8)0.529(7)86768082-6

Oakland4.76(9)4.49(3)0.527(8)857793698

Los Angeles4.73(11)4.52(4)0.521(9)847889735

Boston5.06(6)5.09(11)0.497(10)818186765

Seattle4.67(13)4.89(9)0.479(11)788478840

Baltimore4.74(10)5.55(13)0.428(12)699370921

Tampa Bay4.25(14)5.28(12)0.402(13)659761101-4

Kansas City4.67(12)5.99(14)0.388(14)639962100-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9765

Minnesota9666

Detroit9567

Oakland9369

Chicago9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9765

Minnesota9666

Detroit9567

Oakland9369

Chicago9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland5.71(5)1.71(1)0.901(1)61610

New York7.86(1)4.57(7)0.729(2)5243-1

Los Angeles5.86(3)4.29(4)0.639(3)43521

Minnesota4(9)3(2)0.629(4)43430

Toronto5.43(6)4.43(5)0.592(5)43521

Oakland6.43(2)6.29(12)0.51(6)4334-1

Kansas City5.43(6)5.43(9)0.5(7)43430

Boston3.67(11)4.17(3)0.442(8)33330

Texas3.67(11)4.5(6)0.407(9)24240

Seattle5(8)6.17(11)0.405(10)24331

Detroit5.83(4)7.67(14)0.378(11)2415-1

Baltimore4(9)6.5(13)0.291(12)24240

Tampa Bay3.14(13)5.71(10)0.251(13)2516-1

Chicago2.33(14)5.33(8)0.181(14)15332

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link