Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Prediction time

I've heard a lot of analysis today that suggests that Joe Lieberman should just hang it up. Concede. Not run as an independent. Which strikes me as very silly. Why on earth would a sitting Senator who wanted to still be a Senator walk away? Yes, the moonbat faction managed to put up a sock-puppet to barely out-poll him in the primary, but so what?

Here's what happens in November: Ned Lamont has peaked. There will be a much higher turnout, so he'll take more votes, but the people that want to vote for Ned Lamont? That's the 146,000 that showed up at the polls yesterday. The people that want to vote against Lieberman? Well, the Democrats that want to vote against Lieberman were at the polls yesterday. The other 30+% of the electorate will show up in November and vote for Schlesinger, or the Concerned Citizens candidate, or the Libertarian candidate, or the Green candidate.

Lieberman keeps the vote he got yesterday. He takes a much bigger share of the independent vote than Lamont. He takes a chunk of the Republican vote that recognizes the futility of the Schlesinger campaign, and respects national security. He took about 2/3 of the vote in 2000, during his last re-election. That will drop significantly, but nowhere near enough for him to lose. Lamont's constituency is small, as is Schlesinger's. Joe-mentum carries Lieberman back to Washington.

Prediction: Joe Lieberman wins the Senate seat from Connecticut in November. Easily. Final tally:

Lieberman (I):454,52940.06%
Lamont (D):306,68627.03%
Schlesinger (R):343,77430.30%
Others :29,58602.61%

Lieberman and Lamont combine to take 2/3 of the votes, but Lieberman wins handily.

John Hawkins has different numbers but the same result - another 6 years of Senator Lieberman...

Technorati tags: Lieberman, Lamont, November, Election



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