Monday, August 28, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 8/28

This miry slough is such a place as cannot be mended: it is the descent whither the scum and filth that attends conviction for sin doth continually run, and therefore it is called the Slough of Despond.


That's where the Red Sox are this morning. Coming off another sweep at the hands of another bad team, Seattle this time. Eliot said that April is the cruelest month, but for these Red Sox, it's been August that has been the Waste Land.

After the agony in stony places
The shouting and the crying
Prison and place and reverberation
Of thunder of spring over distant mountains
He who was living is now dead
We who were living are now dying

With a little patience
Here is no water but only rock
Rock and no water and the sandy road


4 weeks ago, on the morning of July 31, the Boston Red Sox had the second-best record in the American league. They had just lost Tim Wakefield, Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek, and they've cratered since. They've played poorly enough that they should be 11-15, they've been unlucky enough that they've actually been 9-17. They've scored 4.96 runs per game, which is mediocre. They've allowed 6.12, which is horrible.

Mike Timlin's protestations notwithstanding, it has been the pitching that has been the problem. Most of the time, anyway. The offense has been nothing to write home about, but it has, on the whole, been mediocre. With mediocre pitching, they might be 13-13 over the past 4 weeks, rather than 9-17. If they were, they'd still be in competition for both the division and the Wild Card, as opposed to looking wistfully in from the fringes, as they are now.

It's not, of course, over yet. But. They need to put together the kind of run that it doesn't look like they're capable of putting together. They have 3 at home against both Minnesota and Chicago. They basically need to win all 6. They've got 4 in New York. They need to win all 4. It does not look as if this team, as currently constructed, is capable of doing those things. We'll know soon enough. Another week like the last 2, and we won't be talking about possibilities next week - we'll be talking about the Patriots and the baseball hot stove...




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/28/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit4.99(8)3.99(1)0.601(1)785281493

New York5.65(1)4.77(6)0.576(2)745476522

Chicago5.58(2)4.83(7)0.566(3)735675542

Minnesota5.08(7)4.41(3)0.565(4)725676524

Cleveland5.52(3)4.99(10)0.545(5)70586068-10

Oakland4.63(11)4.38(2)0.525(6)686174556

Boston5.4(4)5.14(11)0.523(7)676271584

Texas5.17(5)4.93(9)0.521(8)68636665-2

Toronto5.09(6)4.88(8)0.52(9)676268611

Los Angeles4.88(9)4.68(4)0.518(10)676369612

Seattle4.54(13)4.77(5)0.478(11)62676069-2

Baltimore4.86(10)5.5(13)0.444(12)577258711

Tampa Bay4.28(14)5.25(12)0.408(13)53775278-1

Kansas City4.57(12)5.98(14)0.38(14)50814784-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10161

New York9666

Minnesota9666

Chicago9468

Oakland9369




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10062

New York9666

Minnesota9567

Chicago9468

Oakland9171




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland6.83(2)4(3)0.727(1)42511

Minnesota6.33(3)3.83(2)0.715(2)42511

Cleveland7.67(1)5.5(12)0.647(3)42511

Los Angeles5(6)4(3)0.601(4)42420

Seattle4(10)3.67(1)0.54(5)33421

New York5.43(4)5.14(9)0.525(6)4334-1

Toronto4.83(7)4.67(7)0.516(7)33330

Chicago4.57(8)5.14(9)0.446(8)3425-1

Tampa Bay3.57(12)4.14(5)0.433(9)34340

Kansas City5.17(5)6.17(14)0.42(10)3324-1

Detroit4.14(9)5.29(11)0.39(11)3425-1

Texas3.71(11)5.57(13)0.323(12)25250

Boston2.71(14)4.14(5)0.316(13)25250

Baltimore3(13)4.83(8)0.295(14)24331

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link