Monday, August 14, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 8/14/2006

The Red Sox got swept in Kansas City, and somehow made up ground in the division race this week. Now, they've got 3 home games against the possibly-reeling Tigers leading into one of the biggest series of the year. Starting Friday, the Red Sox will host the Yankees for 5 games over 4 days. A Yankee sweep would come close to ending the division race. A Red Sox sweep would probably put Boston into first place. I don't expect either of those things to happen. It is very likely to be a 3-2 series one way or the other. If the Yankees win 4 or 5, it is unlikely that Boston makes the play-offs. If the Red Sox win 3-5, the race goes into late September.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/14/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.13(7)3.96(1)0.616(1)724576414

Chicago5.67(1)4.82(8)0.574(2)674970463

New York5.52(3)4.69(5)0.574(3)654968463

Minnesota5.05(8)4.51(3)0.551(4)655268493

Boston5.57(2)5.01(11)0.548(5)645268484

Cleveland5.5(4)4.99(10)0.545(6)64535364-11

Toronto5.19(6)4.8(7)0.536(7)635563550

Texas5.28(5)4.95(9)0.529(8)63566158-2

Los Angeles4.86(9)4.69(4)0.516(9)615761570

Oakland4.49(13)4.45(2)0.503(10)595865526

Seattle4.68(11)4.75(6)0.493(11)58595661-2

Baltimore4.82(10)5.66(13)0.427(12)506851671

Tampa Bay4.32(14)5.35(12)0.404(13)48704771-1

Kansas City4.53(12)6.03(14)0.371(14)44744177-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10557

Chicago9864

New York9765

Boston9567

Minnesota9468




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10458

Chicago9666

New York9666

Minnesota9369

Boston9369




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland7.14(2)2.71(2)0.855(1)61610

Texas8.71(1)4.71(7)0.755(2)52520

Toronto4.57(8)2.57(1)0.741(3)52520

Chicago5.14(4)4(3)0.613(4)43521

Boston6.67(3)5.67(11)0.574(5)33330

Oakland4.67(6)5(8)0.468(6)33512

New York4.67(6)5.17(9)0.454(7)3324-1

Detroit3.33(12)4.5(6)0.366(8)2415-1

Seattle4.43(9)6(13)0.365(9)34340

Los Angeles3.86(11)5.29(10)0.36(10)34431

Kansas City4(10)5.71(12)0.342(11)25341

Baltimore5(5)7.33(14)0.332(12)2415-1

Minnesota2.43(13)4.29(4)0.261(13)25341

Tampa Bay1.83(14)4.33(5)0.172(14)1506-1

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