The Red Sox got swept in Kansas City, and somehow made up ground in the division race this week. Now, they've got 3 home games against the possibly-reeling Tigers leading into one of the biggest series of the year. Starting Friday, the Red Sox will host the Yankees for 5 games over 4 days. A Yankee sweep would come close to ending the division race. A Red Sox sweep would probably put Boston into first place. I don't expect either of those things to happen. It is very likely to be a 3-2 series one way or the other. If the Yankees win 4 or 5, it is unlikely that Boston makes the play-offs. If the Red Sox win 3-5, the race goes into late September.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/14/2006
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Detroit | 5.13 | (7) | 3.96 | (1) | 0.616 | (1) | 72 | 45 | 76 | 41 | 4
| | Chicago | 5.67 | (1) | 4.82 | (8) | 0.574 | (2) | 67 | 49 | 70 | 46 | 3
| | New York | 5.52 | (3) | 4.69 | (5) | 0.574 | (3) | 65 | 49 | 68 | 46 | 3
| | Minnesota | 5.05 | (8) | 4.51 | (3) | 0.551 | (4) | 65 | 52 | 68 | 49 | 3
| | Boston | 5.57 | (2) | 5.01 | (11) | 0.548 | (5) | 64 | 52 | 68 | 48 | 4
| | Cleveland | 5.5 | (4) | 4.99 | (10) | 0.545 | (6) | 64 | 53 | 53 | 64 | -11
| | Toronto | 5.19 | (6) | 4.8 | (7) | 0.536 | (7) | 63 | 55 | 63 | 55 | 0
| | Texas | 5.28 | (5) | 4.95 | (9) | 0.529 | (8) | 63 | 56 | 61 | 58 | -2
| | Los Angeles | 4.86 | (9) | 4.69 | (4) | 0.516 | (9) | 61 | 57 | 61 | 57 | 0
| | Oakland | 4.49 | (13) | 4.45 | (2) | 0.503 | (10) | 59 | 58 | 65 | 52 | 6
| | Seattle | 4.68 | (11) | 4.75 | (6) | 0.493 | (11) | 58 | 59 | 56 | 61 | -2
| | Baltimore | 4.82 | (10) | 5.66 | (13) | 0.427 | (12) | 50 | 68 | 51 | 67 | 1
| | Tampa Bay | 4.32 | (14) | 5.35 | (12) | 0.404 | (13) | 48 | 70 | 47 | 71 | -1
| | Kansas City | 4.53 | (12) | 6.03 | (14) | 0.371 | (14) | 44 | 74 | 41 | 77 | -3
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Detroit | 105 | 57
|
| Chicago | 98 | 64
|
| New York | 97 | 65
|
| Boston | 95 | 67
|
| Minnesota | 94 | 68
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Detroit | 104 | 58
|
| Chicago | 96 | 66
|
| New York | 96 | 66
|
| Minnesota | 93 | 69
|
| Boston | 93 | 69
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Cleveland | 7.14 | (2) | 2.71 | (2) | 0.855 | (1) | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0
| | Texas | 8.71 | (1) | 4.71 | (7) | 0.755 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Toronto | 4.57 | (8) | 2.57 | (1) | 0.741 | (3) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Chicago | 5.14 | (4) | 4 | (3) | 0.613 | (4) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1
| | Boston | 6.67 | (3) | 5.67 | (11) | 0.574 | (5) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Oakland | 4.67 | (6) | 5 | (8) | 0.468 | (6) | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2
| | New York | 4.67 | (6) | 5.17 | (9) | 0.454 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Detroit | 3.33 | (12) | 4.5 | (6) | 0.366 | (8) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Seattle | 4.43 | (9) | 6 | (13) | 0.365 | (9) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0
| | Los Angeles | 3.86 | (11) | 5.29 | (10) | 0.36 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1
| | Kansas City | 4 | (10) | 5.71 | (12) | 0.342 | (11) | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1
| | Baltimore | 5 | (5) | 7.33 | (14) | 0.332 | (12) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Minnesota | 2.43 | (13) | 4.29 | (4) | 0.261 | (13) | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1
| | Tampa Bay | 1.83 | (14) | 4.33 | (5) | 0.172 | (14) | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -1
| |
|---|
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