Monday, September 26, 2005

Monday Pythagorean Report



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/26/2005
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland4.96(4)4.01(2)0.596(1)93639264-1

Oakland4.81(5)4.08(4)0.575(2)89668570-4

Anaheim4.67(8)3.99(1)0.571(3)896689660

Chicago4.61(9)4.05(3)0.558(4)876894617

New York5.45(2)4.81(8)0.557(5)866991645

Boston5.65(1)4.99(11)0.556(6)866991645

Toronto4.73(6)4.39(6)0.534(7)83727679-7

Minnesota4.24(14)4.1(5)0.515(8)80757877-2

Texas5.39(3)5.31(12)0.507(9)79777779-2

Seattle4.36(12)4.65(7)0.471(10)73836789-6

Detroit4.55(10)4.86(9)0.469(11)73826986-4

Baltimore4.43(11)4.9(10)0.455(12)708570850

Tampa Bay4.7(7)5.83(14)0.403(13)639365912

Kansas City4.34(13)5.79(13)0.371(14)579853102-4




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago9864

Cleveland9666

New York9567

Boston9567

Anaheim9369




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago9864

Cleveland9666

New York9567

Boston9567

Anaheim9369




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston7.5(2)4.33(5)0.732(1)42420

Cleveland7.71(1)4.71(7)0.711(2)52520

New York5.86(3)4.14(3)0.653(3)52611

Anaheim5.5(4)4.33(5)0.607(4)42511

Detroit4.14(10)3.86(1)0.533(5)4325-2

Texas4.17(9)4.17(4)0.5(6)3324-1

Chicago4(11)4(2)0.5(6)43430

Kansas City5.5(4)5.75(12)0.48(8)44531

Toronto4.43(8)5.14(9)0.432(9)34340

Oakland4.83(7)5.67(11)0.428(10)33330

Tampa Bay5.5(4)7.33(14)0.371(11)24331

Minnesota3.71(13)5(8)0.367(12)3425-1

Seattle3.29(14)5.14(9)0.306(13)25341

Baltimore3.86(12)6.14(13)0.299(14)2507-2



So it's come to this. The Red Sox and Yankees are in a flat-footed tie, with 7 games left. The last 3 are head-to-head in Boston. What we have this week is essentially an extra play-off round - whoever wins this 7 game set wins the east.

Advantage: Red Sox - all 7 of their games are at home, while the Yankees are on the road for all 7 of theirs.

Advantage: Yankees - the next 4 nights, they're in Baltimore, where the Orioles have essentially folded their tents. The Red Sox are at home, but playing a much better team that is at least trying to keep their dignity intact.

Advantage: Red Sox - the last 3 are in Boston.

If there are opposing sweeps, the series in Boston next weekend would be meaningless, but that's very unlikely. More likely is the teams being tied or within 1 game of each other Friday night.

It's going to be very difficult for the 2nd place team in the east to make it in. Both teams are tied in the loss column with the Indians right now, but the 2nd place team HAS to lose 2 more - at least. If the Indians go 4-2 on the week, they're guaranteed at least a tie with the East loser. 5-1 clinches a post-season berth for Cleveland. As of today, it looks like the White Sox, Indians, Angels and one of the Red Sox or Yankees, make the play-offs in the AL...

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