AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/19/2005
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Cleveland | 4.83 | (4) | 3.98 | (1) | 0.588 | (1) | 88 | 61 | 87 | 62 | -1
| | Oakland | 4.81 | (5) | 4.01 | (3) | 0.582 | (2) | 87 | 62 | 82 | 67 | -5
| | Anaheim | 4.64 | (8) | 3.98 | (1) | 0.57 | (3) | 85 | 64 | 84 | 65 | -1
| | Chicago | 4.64 | (9) | 4.05 | (4) | 0.561 | (4) | 83 | 65 | 90 | 58 | 7
| | New York | 5.43 | (3) | 4.84 | (8) | 0.552 | (5) | 82 | 66 | 85 | 63 | 3
| | Boston | 5.58 | (1) | 5.02 | (11) | 0.548 | (6) | 82 | 67 | 87 | 62 | 5
| | Toronto | 4.74 | (6) | 4.35 | (6) | 0.539 | (7) | 80 | 68 | 73 | 75 | -7
| | Minnesota | 4.26 | (14) | 4.06 | (5) | 0.522 | (8) | 77 | 71 | 76 | 72 | -1
| | Texas | 5.44 | (2) | 5.35 | (12) | 0.507 | (9) | 76 | 74 | 75 | 75 | -1
| | Seattle | 4.41 | (12) | 4.62 | (7) | 0.478 | (10) | 71 | 78 | 64 | 85 | -7
| | Detroit | 4.57 | (10) | 4.91 | (10) | 0.467 | (11) | 69 | 79 | 67 | 81 | -2
| | Baltimore | 4.46 | (11) | 4.84 | (8) | 0.463 | (12) | 68 | 80 | 70 | 78 | 2
| | Tampa Bay | 4.67 | (7) | 5.77 | (13) | 0.404 | (13) | 61 | 89 | 62 | 88 | 1
| | Kansas City | 4.27 | (13) | 5.79 | (14) | 0.364 | (14) | 54 | 93 | 48 | 99 | -6
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Chicago | 99 | 63
|
| Cleveland | 95 | 67
|
| Boston | 95 | 67
|
| New York | 93 | 69
|
| Anaheim | 91 | 71
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Chicago | 98 | 64
|
| Cleveland | 95 | 67
|
| Boston | 94 | 68
|
| New York | 93 | 69
|
| Anaheim | 91 | 71
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Cleveland | 5 | (5) | 2.17 | (2) | 0.822 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0
| | New York | 8.17 | (1) | 4.83 | (7) | 0.723 | (2) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1
| | Minnesota | 3.33 | (14) | 2 | (1) | 0.718 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1
| | Oakland | 4.14 | (9) | 3 | (3) | 0.644 | (4) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2
| | Texas | 5.14 | (4) | 4.57 | (5) | 0.554 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1
| | Seattle | 5.43 | (3) | 5 | (9) | 0.538 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1
| | Toronto | 5.5 | (2) | 5.17 | (10) | 0.529 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Baltimore | 3.67 | (12) | 4.17 | (4) | 0.442 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Chicago | 4 | (10) | 4.67 | (6) | 0.43 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Anaheim | 4.57 | (6) | 5.43 | (11) | 0.422 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0
| | Detroit | 3.71 | (11) | 4.86 | (8) | 0.38 | (11) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1
| | Kansas City | 4.33 | (7) | 6.5 | (13) | 0.323 | (12) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 4.33 | (7) | 6.67 | (14) | 0.313 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| | Boston | 3.43 | (13) | 5.43 | (11) | 0.301 | (14) | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2
| |
|---|
Major League Baseball and the players union have a rule that no team can be required to play more than 19 consecutive days without the players' permission. When the Red Sox/White Sox rainout was re-scheduled for September 5, it required the acquiescence of the Red Sox players, because it gave them a stretch of 30 days without an off-day. Their last off-day was August 22, the next one is September 22. I mention this, because it may be relevant to what's happened the last two weeks. In the two weeks leading up to the scheduled September 5 off-day, the Red Sox averaged over 6 1/2 runs per game - in the two weeks since they didn't get their day off, they've averaged 3 1/2.
Whether there's any causation there or not, they need to come out of it. Frankly, given the way they've hit the last two weeks, they're lucky to still be in first. 4-3 on the week wasn't good enough, not with the Yankees and Indians playing the way they are. They've still got a 1-game lead on NY for the East in the loss column, but their loss column lead over Cleveland is gone, and so is their margin for error. The last trip of the season starts tonight, 3 in TB, followed by 3 in Baltimore, with a day off (Finally!) between the two series. 4-2 is the minimum acceptable trip, and it would be disappointing.
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