Monday, September 19, 2005

Monday Pythagorean Report



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/19/2005
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland4.83(4)3.98(1)0.588(1)88618762-1

Oakland4.81(5)4.01(3)0.582(2)87628267-5

Anaheim4.64(8)3.98(1)0.57(3)85648465-1

Chicago4.64(9)4.05(4)0.561(4)836590587

New York5.43(3)4.84(8)0.552(5)826685633

Boston5.58(1)5.02(11)0.548(6)826787625

Toronto4.74(6)4.35(6)0.539(7)80687375-7

Minnesota4.26(14)4.06(5)0.522(8)77717672-1

Texas5.44(2)5.35(12)0.507(9)76747575-1

Seattle4.41(12)4.62(7)0.478(10)71786485-7

Detroit4.57(10)4.91(10)0.467(11)69796781-2

Baltimore4.46(11)4.84(8)0.463(12)688070782

Tampa Bay4.67(7)5.77(13)0.404(13)618962881

Kansas City4.27(13)5.79(14)0.364(14)54934899-6




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago9963

Cleveland9567

Boston9567

New York9369

Anaheim9171




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago9864

Cleveland9567

Boston9468

New York9369

Anaheim9171




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland5(5)2.17(2)0.822(1)51510

New York8.17(1)4.83(7)0.723(2)42511

Minnesota3.33(14)2(1)0.718(3)4233-1

Oakland4.14(9)3(3)0.644(4)5234-2

Texas5.14(4)4.57(5)0.554(5)43521

Seattle5.43(3)5(9)0.538(6)4334-1

Toronto5.5(2)5.17(10)0.529(7)3324-1

Baltimore3.67(12)4.17(4)0.442(8)33330

Chicago4(10)4.67(6)0.43(9)33330

Anaheim4.57(6)5.43(11)0.422(10)34340

Detroit3.71(11)4.86(8)0.38(11)3425-1

Kansas City4.33(7)6.5(13)0.323(12)24240

Tampa Bay4.33(7)6.67(14)0.313(13)24240

Boston3.43(13)5.43(11)0.301(14)25432





Major League Baseball and the players union have a rule that no team can be required to play more than 19 consecutive days without the players' permission. When the Red Sox/White Sox rainout was re-scheduled for September 5, it required the acquiescence of the Red Sox players, because it gave them a stretch of 30 days without an off-day. Their last off-day was August 22, the next one is September 22. I mention this, because it may be relevant to what's happened the last two weeks. In the two weeks leading up to the scheduled September 5 off-day, the Red Sox averaged over 6 1/2 runs per game - in the two weeks since they didn't get their day off, they've averaged 3 1/2.

Whether there's any causation there or not, they need to come out of it. Frankly, given the way they've hit the last two weeks, they're lucky to still be in first. 4-3 on the week wasn't good enough, not with the Yankees and Indians playing the way they are. They've still got a 1-game lead on NY for the East in the loss column, but their loss column lead over Cleveland is gone, and so is their margin for error. The last trip of the season starts tonight, 3 in TB, followed by 3 in Baltimore, with a day off (Finally!) between the two series. 4-2 is the minimum acceptable trip, and it would be disappointing.

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