Monday Pythagorean Report

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/22/2005

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Anaheim	4.75	(6)	3.98	(1)	0.581	(1)	72	52	71	53	-1
Chicago	4.69	(8)	4.02	(2)	0.57	(2)	69	52	75	46	6
Oakland	4.76	(5)	4.12	(5)	0.565	(3)	70	53	68	55	-2
Cleveland	4.68	(9)	4.12	(4)	0.558	(4)	69	55	68	56	-1
Boston	5.7	(1)	5.03	(11)	0.557	(5)	68	54	71	51	3
Toronto	4.91	(4)	4.34	(6)	0.556	(6)	68	55	63	60	-5
New York	5.39	(2)	4.93	(10)	0.541	(7)	66	56	67	55	1
Minnesota	4.44	(12)	4.08	(3)	0.538	(8)	67	57	66	58	-1
Detroit	4.74	(7)	4.65	(7)	0.509	(9)	62	60	60	62	-2
Texas	5.38	(3)	5.41	(12)	0.498	(10)	61	62	57	66	-4
Baltimore	4.59	(11)	4.86	(9)	0.474	(11)	58	65	60	63	2
Seattle	4.41	(13)	4.71	(8)	0.471	(12)	58	65	53	70	-5
Tampa Bay	4.64	(10)	5.79	(13)	0.4	(13)	50	74	51	73	1
Kansas City	4.2	(14)	5.84	(14)	0.354	(14)	43	79	40	82	-3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	100	62
Boston	94	68
Anaheim	93	69
Oakland	90	72
Cleveland	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Chicago	98	64
Anaheim	93	69
Boston	93	69
Oakland	90	72
Cleveland	89	73

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Cleveland	5.5	(4)	2.5	(1)	0.809	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Minnesota	6.14	(3)	3.57	(4)	0.73	(2)	5	2	6	1	1
Detroit	8.17	(1)	5.67	(11)	0.661	(3)	4	2	5	1	1
Tampa Bay	4.17	(7)	3.33	(2)	0.601	(4)	4	2	5	1	1
Seattle	6.29	(2)	5.14	(10)	0.591	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
New York	4	(9)	3.33	(2)	0.583	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Anaheim	4.29	(6)	3.86	(6)	0.548	(7)	4	3	3	4	-1
Boston	5.14	(5)	5.86	(13)	0.441	(8)	3	4	3	4	0
Baltimore	3.5	(10)	4	(7)	0.439	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Oakland	2.83	(12)	3.67	(5)	0.384	(10)	2	4	1	5	-1
Toronto	4.17	(7)	6.33	(14)	0.317	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Texas	2.5	(13)	4.83	(9)	0.23	(12)	1	5	1	5	0
Kansas City	3	(11)	5.83	(12)	0.228	(13)	1	5	2	4	1
Chicago	2.33	(14)	4.67	(8)	0.22	(14)	1	5	1	5	0

It's amusing, at times, to watch the denizens of Red Sox nation overreacting to every misstep. After a 14-2 stretch that saw them extend their lead in the AL East to 5 games, there seemed to be panic when they lost two in Detroit and got blown out on Thursday. They came back to take 2 of the last 3 in Anaheim, and saw their lead decrease by 1/2 game during the course of the week. Now, after an off-day, they play 3 in Kansas City before heading home for their longest home stand of the season.

• The Red Sox have exactly 6 road games left with teams that are currently over .500, 3 at New York and 3 at Toronto.



• When they finish Thursday's game in KC, they'll have 37 games remaining (36 scheduled, plus the rained-out game against the White Sox that may not get made up.) Only 12 of those are on the road.



• Curt Schilling returns to the starting rotation on Thursday. Trot Nixon could be back as early as tomorrow, Keith Foulke could be back by the end of the week, or early next week. If Schilling and Foulke could approximate the Schilling and Foulke of last year, this team has to be one of the favorites to go to the World Series.



• An interesting line for Randy Johnson in Chicago yesterday, as the Big Unit threw 7 scoreless innings against the White Sox. Unfortunately for the Yankees, he also throw the 4th, in which 6 batters did the following:
  
  
  1. Tadahito Iguchi - Home run
  
  
  2. Aaron Rowand - Home run
  
  
  3. Paul Konerko - Home run
  
  
  4. Jermaine Dye - single
  
  
  5. Juan Uribe - single
  
  
  6. Chris Widger - home run
  
  
  Before Iguchi's home run, he had given up 1 hit in the first 3 1/3. After Widger's home run, he gave up 3 hits in 4 2/3. He was excellent. But that one bad stretch was bad enough to cost the team another win...