Monday, June 27, 2005

Monday Pythagorean Report

This week's Pythagorean report shows the Red Sox moving into first place in the East, and back into the play-offs in the projections:



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/27/2005
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago4.84(5)3.8(2)0.609(1)452950245

Anaheim4.72(6)3.73(1)0.606(2)452945290

Boston5.69(1)4.76(10)0.581(3)433144301

Texas5.37(3)4.78(11)0.553(4)40333835-2

Baltimore5.08(4)4.57(9)0.548(5)413442331

Minnesota4.55(9)4.12(4)0.545(6)403340330

Cleveland4.47(11)4.08(3)0.541(7)393439340

New York5.39(2)5.05(12)0.529(8)40353837-2

Toronto4.51(10)4.25(5)0.527(9)40363838-2

Detroit4.57(8)4.39(6)0.518(10)37353636-1

Seattle4.28(14)4.45(7)0.483(11)36383341-3

Oakland4.39(12)4.56(8)0.482(12)36393540-1

Kansas City4.34(13)5.69(13)0.378(13)28462549-3

Tampa Bay4.66(7)6.21(14)0.371(14)28482650-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago10953

Anaheim9963

Boston9666

Baltimore9171

Minnesota8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago10458

Anaheim9864

Boston9567

Baltimore9072

Minnesota8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Anaheim5.67(6)1.83(1)0.887(1)51601

Oakland6.43(2)2.14(2)0.882(2)61610

Boston8.5(1)4(4)0.799(3)51601

Chicago5.83(4)3.33(3)0.736(4)42420

Toronto5.14(7)4(4)0.613(5)43430

Detroit5(9)4.17(6)0.583(6)33330

Cleveland5.83(4)6.5(12)0.451(7)3324-1

Seattle4.57(10)5.29(8)0.434(8)3425-1

New York6.14(3)7.14(13)0.431(9)3425-1

Tampa Bay5.14(7)6.43(10)0.399(10)34340

Minnesota3.5(12)4.83(7)0.356(11)24240

Baltimore3.57(11)6.43(10)0.254(12)2516-1

Texas2.83(14)5.33(9)0.239(13)15150

Kansas City3.33(13)7.67(14)0.179(14)1506-1


Well, that's a nice little week now, isn't it? Whenever you start a week 3 down in the loss column and finish the week 3 up in the loss column, you've got to say that that was a productive week. They improved their relative position against the Orioles by 6 games and against the Yankees by 5.


  • 2 games in which they took big leads and had to hold on. 1 game in which they never had a lead until the 9th. 3 wire-to-wire wins that were never in doubt. They did everything they needed to do, won every way.


  • There are 5 half-innings that are particularly interesting. They trailed Cleveland 3 separate times on Tuesday night. Each time that the Indians took a lead, the Red Sox tied it immediately, in the next half inning. Then, they took their first lead of the night in the 9th. Yesterday, Philadelphia tied it in the 7th after being down by 7 runs twice. It took the Red Sox two (2) pitches in the top of the 8th to regain the lead. It took them eight (8) pitches to get the lead up to 4, and effectively end the game.

    Damon - first pitch Bunt single
    Bellhorn - first pitch RBI double
    Ortiz - first pitch infield single
    Ramirez - first pitch sacrifice fly
    Nixon - first pitch fielder's choice
    Varitek - 3rd pitch home run

    It was astounding to watch. They scored their first run on the 2nd pitch, their second run on the 4th pitch. Two more on the 8th.


  • Schilling threw two simulated games, threw well, threw easy, and is going out for a rehab start. Prediction - no other contender acquires a Schilling-caliber pitcher between now and the end of the season...


  • "I look at the rosters, and I think Boston's the best team in the East. I thought so before the season started, and I think so today. I think that at some point they'll get some home games (they've played 10 more on the road than at home), and Schilling will get back, and Arroyo will find himself again, and they'll go on a good run, 16-of-20 or something like that, and move into first place and stay there."

    That's what I said two weeks ago today, June 13. They're 11-1 since, and have moved in to first. We'll have to wait and see if they stay there, but I expect them to. I think that they are the best team in the East, probably the best team in the AL despite what Chicago's done, and I don't expect them to get caught. (Which, given my track record on these things, they probably will be next week...)


  • "Baltimore's going to Toronto and Atlanta. I think that the Sox could pick up ground this week if they play well."

    That's what I said last week.


  • They're coming home to face a Cleveland team that they beat on the road 3 straight last week. The Yankees are going to Baltimore, so one of the two will lose for the next three nights. The Sox cannot continue to play the way they're playing. Hopefully the let-down, when it comes, is neither long nor severe...

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