Monday Pythagorean Report

This week's Pythagorean report shows the Red Sox moving into first place in the East, and back into the play-offs in the projections:

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/27/2005

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Chicago	4.84	(5)	3.8	(2)	0.609	(1)	45	29	50	24	5
Anaheim	4.72	(6)	3.73	(1)	0.606	(2)	45	29	45	29	0
Boston	5.69	(1)	4.76	(10)	0.581	(3)	43	31	44	30	1
Texas	5.37	(3)	4.78	(11)	0.553	(4)	40	33	38	35	-2
Baltimore	5.08	(4)	4.57	(9)	0.548	(5)	41	34	42	33	1
Minnesota	4.55	(9)	4.12	(4)	0.545	(6)	40	33	40	33	0
Cleveland	4.47	(11)	4.08	(3)	0.541	(7)	39	34	39	34	0
New York	5.39	(2)	5.05	(12)	0.529	(8)	40	35	38	37	-2
Toronto	4.51	(10)	4.25	(5)	0.527	(9)	40	36	38	38	-2
Detroit	4.57	(8)	4.39	(6)	0.518	(10)	37	35	36	36	-1
Seattle	4.28	(14)	4.45	(7)	0.483	(11)	36	38	33	41	-3
Oakland	4.39	(12)	4.56	(8)	0.482	(12)	36	39	35	40	-1
Kansas City	4.34	(13)	5.69	(13)	0.378	(13)	28	46	25	49	-3
Tampa Bay	4.66	(7)	6.21	(14)	0.371	(14)	28	48	26	50	-2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	109	53
Anaheim	99	63
Boston	96	66
Baltimore	91	71
Minnesota	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Chicago	104	58
Anaheim	98	64
Boston	95	67
Baltimore	90	72
Minnesota	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Anaheim	5.67	(6)	1.83	(1)	0.887	(1)	5	1	6	0	1
Oakland	6.43	(2)	2.14	(2)	0.882	(2)	6	1	6	1	0
Boston	8.5	(1)	4	(4)	0.799	(3)	5	1	6	0	1
Chicago	5.83	(4)	3.33	(3)	0.736	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Toronto	5.14	(7)	4	(4)	0.613	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Detroit	5	(9)	4.17	(6)	0.583	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Cleveland	5.83	(4)	6.5	(12)	0.451	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Seattle	4.57	(10)	5.29	(8)	0.434	(8)	3	4	2	5	-1
New York	6.14	(3)	7.14	(13)	0.431	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Tampa Bay	5.14	(7)	6.43	(10)	0.399	(10)	3	4	3	4	0
Minnesota	3.5	(12)	4.83	(7)	0.356	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Baltimore	3.57	(11)	6.43	(10)	0.254	(12)	2	5	1	6	-1
Texas	2.83	(14)	5.33	(9)	0.239	(13)	1	5	1	5	0
Kansas City	3.33	(13)	7.67	(14)	0.179	(14)	1	5	0	6	-1

Well, that's a nice little week now, isn't it? Whenever you start a week 3 down in the loss column and finish the week 3 up in the loss column, you've got to say that that was a productive week. They improved their relative position against the Orioles by 6 games and against the Yankees by 5.

• 2 games in which they took big leads and had to hold on. 1 game in which they never had a lead until the 9th. 3 wire-to-wire wins that were never in doubt. They did everything they needed to do, won every way.



• There are 5 half-innings that are particularly interesting. They trailed Cleveland 3 separate times on Tuesday night. Each time that the Indians took a lead, the Red Sox tied it immediately, in the next half inning. Then, they took their first lead of the night in the 9th. Yesterday, Philadelphia tied it in the 7th after being down by 7 runs twice. It took the Red Sox two (2) pitches in the top of the 8th to regain the lead. It took them eight (8) pitches to get the lead up to 4, and effectively end the game.
  
  Damon - first pitch Bunt single
  Bellhorn - first pitch RBI double
  Ortiz - first pitch infield single
  Ramirez - first pitch sacrifice fly
  Nixon - first pitch fielder's choice
  Varitek - 3rd pitch home run
  
  It was astounding to watch. They scored their first run on the 2nd pitch, their second run on the 4th pitch. Two more on the 8th.



• Schilling threw two simulated games, threw well, threw easy, and is going out for a rehab start. Prediction - no other contender acquires a Schilling-caliber pitcher between now and the end of the season...



• "I look at the rosters, and I think Boston's the best team in the East. I thought so before the season started, and I think so today. I think that at some point they'll get some home games (they've played 10 more on the road than at home), and Schilling will get back, and Arroyo will find himself again, and they'll go on a good run, 16-of-20 or something like that, and move into first place and stay there."
  
  That's what I said two weeks ago today, June 13. They're 11-1 since, and have moved in to first. We'll have to wait and see if they stay there, but I expect them to. I think that they are the best team in the East, probably the best team in the AL despite what Chicago's done, and I don't expect them to get caught. (Which, given my track record on these things, they probably will be next week...)



• "Baltimore's going to Toronto and Atlanta. I think that the Sox could pick up ground this week if they play well."
  
  That's what I said last week.



• They're coming home to face a Cleveland team that they beat on the road 3 straight last week. The Yankees are going to Baltimore, so one of the two will lose for the next three nights. The Sox cannot continue to play the way they're playing. Hopefully the let-down, when it comes, is neither long nor severe...