Monday Pythagorean report

Monday morning Pythagorean report:

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/20/2005

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Chicago	4.75	(5)	3.84	(1)	0.596	(1)	41	27	46	22	5
Baltimore	5.24	(4)	4.38	(7)	0.581	(2)	39	29	41	27	2
Anaheim	4.63	(7)	3.9	(3)	0.578	(3)	39	29	39	29	0
Texas	5.6	(1)	4.73	(9)	0.576	(4)	39	28	37	30	-2
Minnesota	4.64	(6)	4.06	(4)	0.561	(5)	38	29	38	29	0
Boston	5.44	(2)	4.82	(11)	0.555	(6)	38	30	38	30	0
Cleveland	4.34	(12)	3.87	(2)	0.553	(7)	37	30	37	30	0
New York	5.31	(3)	4.84	(12)	0.542	(8)	37	31	36	32	-1
Toronto	4.45	(10)	4.28	(5)	0.518	(9)	36	33	34	35	-2
Detroit	4.53	(9)	4.41	(8)	0.512	(10)	34	32	33	33	-1
Seattle	4.25	(13)	4.36	(6)	0.489	(11)	33	34	31	36	-2
Oakland	4.18	(14)	4.81	(10)	0.436	(12)	30	38	29	39	-1
Kansas City	4.43	(11)	5.51	(13)	0.401	(13)	27	41	25	43	-2
Tampa Bay	4.61	(8)	6.19	(14)	0.368	(14)	25	44	23	46	-2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	110	52
Baltimore	98	64
Anaheim	93	69
Minnesota	92	70
Boston	91	71

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Chicago	102	60
Baltimore	96	66
Anaheim	93	69
Texas	92	70
Minnesota	91	71

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	6.17	(3)	1.83	(1)	0.902	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
New York	7.5	(1)	2.67	(4)	0.869	(2)	5	1	6	0	1
Seattle	5	(8)	1.83	(1)	0.862	(3)	5	1	5	1	0
Baltimore	5.17	(7)	2.17	(3)	0.831	(4)	5	1	5	1	0
Cleveland	6.5	(2)	3	(5)	0.805	(5)	5	1	6	0	1
Detroit	6.17	(3)	3.5	(8)	0.738	(6)	4	2	5	1	1
Anaheim	4	(9)	3	(5)	0.629	(7)	4	2	3	3	-1
Texas	5.83	(5)	4.67	(11)	0.601	(8)	4	2	4	2	0
Oakland	3.67	(12)	3.33	(7)	0.543	(9)	3	3	4	2	1
Chicago	5.33	(6)	5	(13)	0.529	(10)	3	3	4	2	1
Kansas City	4	(9)	3.83	(9)	0.519	(11)	3	3	4	2	1
Toronto	3.67	(12)	4.17	(10)	0.442	(12)	3	3	3	3	0
Tampa Bay	3.5	(14)	4.83	(12)	0.356	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Minnesota	3.83	(11)	6.83	(14)	0.258	(14)	2	4	2	4	0

Last week, Boston went 2-4, but lost no ground as the Orioles and Yankees also went 2-4. This week, they went 5-1, but made up no ground on Baltimore and lost a game in the standings to the Yankees. Those NL teams that they all played were absolutely dreadful on the road.

Not that that was unexpected. I said last week that "it would behoove the Red Sox to not depend too much on "the kindness of strangers" this week, because the Orioles aren't going to go 2-4 again, no matter how poorly they play." It's tough to complain about a 5-1 week, but all it did was keep pace, and the loss came in a game where the starting pitcher gave them 7 scoreless innings.

• As bad as the pitching had been, it was that good this week, at least the starters. In six games, the starting pitchers threw 42 innings (7 per) while allowing only 8 runs for an ERA of 1.74. And half of those runs came in Wade Miller's six innings on Friday. The other 5 pitchers allowed 4 runs in 36 innings, an ERA of 1.00 in more than 7 IP/G. That kind of starting performance will lead to a lot of wins...



• Martinez + Lowe, 2004 - 4.59 ERA
  Wells + Clement, 2005 - 3.92 ERA
  
  It's not quite that simple, but I said repeatedly in the off-season that people had over-estimated what the Sox got from those two last year. I was right.



• They've played 32 at home and 36 on the road. They're going out onto the road for 6 more this week, against the hottest team in baseball, Cleveland, and a pretty good Philadelphia team. Baltimore's going to Toronto and Atlanta. I think that the Sox could pick up ground this week if they play well.
  
  And they're going to have to play well to stay ahead of the Yankees, who are hosting 7 against Tampa Bay and the Mets.



• Before the season, I predicted that the AL East would finish Boston, New York, Baltimore. I see no reason to change that.