Monday Pythagorean 10/01/12

Hey, was anyone else shocked to see, on the bottom of the sports page, hidden below the NFL games and the Ryder cup, that the baseball season is still going on? Who knew...

• It's bad when a team is just "going through the motions" as the season winds down. So what can you say about a team that isn't even going through the motions? I mean, if they were really going through the motions, wouldn't you expect them to win one occasionally, just sort of by accident?
• The pitching staff had another horrid week, allowing 48 hits, 10 of which left the park, 12 walks and 28 runs over 42 innings for a 1.47 WHIP and 5.57 ERA, 12th best in the AL.
• But the pitching staff was an order of magnitude better than the offense, which hit .174/.222/.262/.484. On the plus side, they overperformed, scoring 11 despite just "creating" ~5, but that may be because half of the roster created negative runs.
• I've made no secret of the fact that I'm not paying close attention, but I did spend some time watching and listening this week. I knew it was another bad week, but I thought that they'd won a game early in the week. No. 0-5. And I didn't realize how putrid both the pitching and the offense were until I looked at the numbers this morning.
• The only consolation is that it's over. Thank God.
• WHat do you mean it isn't over? What is MLB doing running its schedule three more games to finish on a Wednesday?
• Oh well, at least they can prevent the Yankees from winning the AL east.
• (That was humor. I'd put the odds of their winning one of the remaining three games at approximately 0.)
• Red Sox Player of the Week - No. There wasn't. The best performances of the week were poor. The others were unspeakable.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Hey, that was a good performance by Pedro Beato the other day, huh? And all I've got to say about that is, who the hell is Pedro Beato?

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/1/2012

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	4.33	(11)	3.6	(1)	0.584	(1)	93	66	88	71	-5
New York	4.88	(2)	4.16	(4)	0.573	(2)	91	68	92	67	1
Texas	5.03	(1)	4.33	(8)	0.568	(3)	90	69	93	66	3
Oakland	4.36	(9)	3.81	(2)	0.562	(4)	89	70	91	68	2
Los Angeles	4.77	(3)	4.26	(7)	0.552	(5)	88	71	88	71	0
Detroit	4.51	(6)	4.17	(5)	0.536	(6)	85	74	86	73	1
Chicago	4.56	(5)	4.23	(6)	0.535	(7)	85	74	83	76	-2
Baltimore	4.45	(7)	4.38	(9)	0.507	(8)	81	78	92	67	11
Boston	4.57	(4)	4.89	(12)	0.469	(9)	75	84	69	90	-6
Seattle	3.75	(14)	4.04	(3)	0.467	(10)	74	85	73	86	-1
Toronto	4.43	(8)	4.87	(11)	0.456	(11)	73	86	70	89	-3
Kansas City	4.21	(12)	4.64	(10)	0.456	(12)	72	87	71	88	-1
Minnesota	4.35	(10)	5.16	(13)	0.423	(13)	67	92	66	93	-1
Cleveland	4.17	(13)	5.17	(14)	0.403	(14)	64	95	67	92	3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Texas	95	67
New York	94	68
Baltimore	94	68
Oakland	93	69
Tampa Bay	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Texas	95	67
New York	94	68
Baltimore	94	68
Oakland	93	69
Tampa Bay	90	72

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	4.83	(7)	2.5	(1)	0.77	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Baltimore	5.71	(3)	3.29	(3)	0.734	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Oakland	6.14	(2)	3.86	(4)	0.701	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Cleveland	7.17	(1)	4.5	(6)	0.701	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Detroit	4	(9)	2.71	(2)	0.67	(5)	5	2	6	1	1
New York	5.71	(3)	4.14	(5)	0.643	(6)	5	2	4	3	-1
Los Angeles	5.33	(5)	5.33	(9)	0.5	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Texas	5	(6)	6	(13)	0.417	(8)	3	4	3	4	0
Toronto	4.38	(8)	5.38	(10)	0.407	(9)	3	5	4	4	1
Seattle	4	(9)	5.5	(11)	0.358	(10)	2	4	1	5	-1
Minnesota	3.17	(13)	4.67	(7)	0.33	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Chicago	3.29	(12)	4.86	(8)	0.328	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Kansas City	3.57	(11)	6.71	(14)	0.24	(13)	2	5	1	6	-1
Boston	2.2	(14)	5.6	(12)	0.153	(14)	1	4	0	5	-1