Some say the Red Sox are struggling, but that the Patriots are fine - well, how badly can the Red Sox be struggling if they won as many games this week as the Patriots did? And, over the last two weeks, they've won twice as many!
- So, you think this weekly report was a lot more fun to read before the team cratered? More interesting, amusing, better written, more informative? You should be writing the things. Oh. My. Lord...
- In their last 162 games, one full season's worth of games, from 9/8/2011-9/9/2012, the Boston Red Sox are a staggering 68-94. Most bad teams aren't that bad. They've scored 782 runs and allowed 826, and underperformed their pythagorean projection by seven games.
- What makes all of that truly stunning is that in the first 141 games of the 2011 season, they were 85-56, the second best record in the AL, having scored 761 runs and allowed only 598. The pitching has cratered, but, as I've noted many times before, the offense has had outbursts which hide how mediocre-to-poor they've been on a consistent basis.
- Long-time readers know that I have little patience for armchair psychoanalasys of professional sports teams. Teams that don't play well tend to look bad. They make mistakes that reek of not being mentally "into the game." It's hard to look like you're working hard if you're walking back to the dugout after striking out, or turning right at first base. It's hard to look like you're "caring" if the opposition is hitting line drives over the outfielders' heads. If there's a way to legitimately determine that a team isn't "playing hard," as opposed to just playing badly, I'm not aware of it.
- But. If I've ever seen a team which has the appearance of having given up, it's this one.
- Red Sox Player of the Week - Cody Ross (.381/.458/.667/1.125) and Dustin Pedroia (.318/.400/.636/1.036) created over 11 runs. The rest of the team created fewer than 8. If I were giving an award this week, either Ross or Pedroia would get it. But I'm not. There may not be another this year.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - None. But let's note that Clayton Mortensen has had a nice rookie season.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/3/2012
| | | | | | | | Projected | Actual | |
|
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck |
|
|---|
| Texas | 5.16 | (1) | 4.28 | (7) | 0.585 | (1) | 78 | 55 | 79 | 54 | 1 |
|
| Oakland | 4.31 | (9) | 3.68 | (2) | 0.572 | (2) | 76 | 57 | 76 | 57 | 0 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 4.2 | (11) | 3.63 | (1) | 0.567 | (3) | 76 | 58 | 73 | 61 | -3 |
|
| New York | 4.79 | (3) | 4.14 | (4) | 0.567 | (4) | 75 | 58 | 76 | 57 | 1 |
|
| Chicago | 4.67 | (5) | 4.19 | (5) | 0.55 | (5) | 73 | 60 | 72 | 61 | -1 |
|
| Los Angeles | 4.75 | (4) | 4.42 | (8) | 0.533 | (6) | 71 | 63 | 71 | 63 | 0 |
|
| Detroit | 4.55 | (6) | 4.26 | (6) | 0.53 | (7) | 70 | 63 | 72 | 61 | 2 |
|
| Boston | 4.83 | (2) | 4.87 | (12) | 0.496 | (8) | 67 | 68 | 62 | 73 | -5 |
|
| Seattle | 3.87 | (14) | 3.96 | (3) | 0.49 | (9) | 66 | 69 | 65 | 70 | -1 |
|
| Toronto | 4.53 | (7) | 4.8 | (11) | 0.473 | (10) | 63 | 70 | 60 | 73 | -3 |
|
| Baltimore | 4.25 | (10) | 4.51 | (9) | 0.473 | (11) | 63 | 70 | 74 | 59 | 11 |
|
| Kansas City | 4.15 | (12) | 4.54 | (10) | 0.459 | (12) | 61 | 72 | 60 | 73 | -1 |
|
| Minnesota | 4.37 | (8) | 5.14 | (13) | 0.426 | (13) | 57 | 77 | 55 | 79 | -2 |
|
| Cleveland | 4.04 | (13) | 5.22 | (14) | 0.385 | (14) | 52 | 82 | 56 | 78 | 4 |
|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Texas | 96 | 66 |
|
| Oakland | 93 | 69 |
|
| New York | 93 | 69 |
|
| Baltimore | 90 | 72 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 88 | 74 |
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Texas | 96 | 66 |
|
| Oakland | 93 | 69 |
|
| New York | 92 | 70 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 89 | 73 |
|
| Chicago | 88 | 74 |
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | | Projected | Actual | |
|
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck |
|
|---|
| Los Angeles | 5.5 | (3) | 1.67 | (1) | 0.899 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 4 | (7) | 2.67 | (2) | 0.677 | (2) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
|
| Minnesota | 6.5 | (1) | 5.5 | (13) | 0.576 | (3) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Baltimore | 6.14 | (2) | 5.29 | (11) | 0.568 | (4) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Kansas City | 4.71 | (5) | 4.86 | (9) | 0.486 | (5) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
|
| Texas | 4 | (7) | 4.43 | (6) | 0.454 | (6) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
|
| Toronto | 4.33 | (6) | 5 | (10) | 0.435 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
|
| Chicago | 5 | (4) | 5.83 | (14) | 0.43 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Detroit | 2.67 | (12) | 3.17 | (3) | 0.422 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 |
|
| Oakland | 3.5 | (9) | 4.17 | (5) | 0.421 | (10) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Cleveland | 3.5 | (9) | 4.67 | (7) | 0.371 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
|
| New York | 3.23 | (11) | 5.38 | (12) | 0.282 | (12) | 4 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
|
| Seattle | 2.17 | (14) | 3.67 | (4) | 0.276 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
|
| Boston | 2.67 | (12) | 4.83 | (8) | 0.252 | (14) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 |
|
Labels: pythagorean, Red Sox
2 Comments:
Bless you for sticking with this...a true test of perseverance.
I'm not sure for what, exactly, I'm atoning, but it definitely has the feel of a weekly act of contrition at this point...
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