Monday, September 10, 2012

Monday Pythagorean Report, 9/10/2012

Some say the Red Sox are struggling, but that the Patriots are fine - well, how badly can the Red Sox be struggling if they won as many games this week as the Patriots did? And, over the last two weeks, they've won twice as many!
  • So, you think this weekly report was a lot more fun to read before the team cratered? More interesting, amusing, better written, more informative? You should be writing the things. Oh. My. Lord...
  • In their last 162 games, one full season's worth of games, from 9/8/2011-9/9/2012, the Boston Red Sox are a staggering 68-94. Most bad teams aren't that bad. They've scored 782 runs and allowed 826, and underperformed their pythagorean projection by seven games.
  • What makes all of that truly stunning is that in the first 141 games of the 2011 season, they were 85-56, the second best record in the AL, having scored 761 runs and allowed only 598. The pitching has cratered, but, as I've noted many times before, the offense has had outbursts which hide how mediocre-to-poor they've been on a consistent basis.
  • Long-time readers know that I have little patience for armchair psychoanalasys of professional sports teams. Teams that don't play well tend to look bad. They make mistakes that reek of not being mentally "into the game." It's hard to look like you're working hard if you're walking back to the dugout after striking out, or turning right at first base. It's hard to look like you're "caring" if the opposition is hitting line drives over the outfielders' heads. If there's a way to legitimately determine that a team isn't "playing hard," as opposed to just playing badly, I'm not aware of it.
  • But. If I've ever seen a team which has the appearance of having given up, it's this one.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Cody Ross (.381/.458/.667/1.125) and Dustin Pedroia (.318/.400/.636/1.036) created over 11 runs. The rest of the team created fewer than 8. If I were giving an award this week, either Ross or Pedroia would get it. But I'm not. There may not be another this year.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - None. But let's note that Clayton Mortensen has had a nice rookie season.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/3/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.16(1)4.28(7)0.585(1)785579541
Oakland4.31(9)3.68(2)0.572(2)765776570
Tampa Bay4.2(11)3.63(1)0.567(3)76587361-3
New York4.79(3)4.14(4)0.567(4)755876571
Chicago4.67(5)4.19(5)0.55(5)73607261-1
Los Angeles4.75(4)4.42(8)0.533(6)716371630
Detroit4.55(6)4.26(6)0.53(7)706372612
Boston4.83(2)4.87(12)0.496(8)67686273-5
Seattle3.87(14)3.96(3)0.49(9)66696570-1
Toronto4.53(7)4.8(11)0.473(10)63706073-3
Baltimore4.25(10)4.51(9)0.473(11)6370745911
Kansas City4.15(12)4.54(10)0.459(12)61726073-1
Minnesota4.37(8)5.14(13)0.426(13)57775579-2
Cleveland4.04(13)5.22(14)0.385(14)528256784

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas9666
Oakland9369
New York9369
Baltimore9072
Tampa Bay8874

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas9666
Oakland9369
New York9270
Tampa Bay8973
Chicago8874

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Los Angeles5.5(3)1.67(1)0.899(1)51601
Tampa Bay4(7)2.67(2)0.677(2)42420
Minnesota6.5(1)5.5(13)0.576(3)33330
Baltimore6.14(2)5.29(11)0.568(4)43430
Kansas City4.71(5)4.86(9)0.486(5)34340
Texas4(7)4.43(6)0.454(6)34431
Toronto4.33(6)5(10)0.435(7)33421
Chicago5(4)5.83(14)0.43(8)33330
Detroit2.67(12)3.17(3)0.422(9)3315-2
Oakland3.5(9)4.17(5)0.421(10)33330
Cleveland3.5(9)4.67(7)0.371(11)24331
New York3.23(11)5.38(12)0.282(12)49581
Seattle2.17(14)3.67(4)0.276(13)24240
Boston2.67(12)4.83(8)0.252(14)2415-1

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2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bless you for sticking with this...a true test of perseverance.

3:37 PM  
Blogger Lyford said...

I'm not sure for what, exactly, I'm atoning, but it definitely has the feel of a weekly act of contrition at this point...

3:46 PM  

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