Monday, September 17, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 9/17/2012

As they limp towards the finish line, the only remaining question is, which is a better analogy for the 2012 Red Sox - the Titanic, or the Hindenburg? The former was a much more expensive failure with a higher casualty count, but the latter is almost the archetype of "crash and burn," so it's a tough call...
  • A couple of good individual offensive performances, albeit in short at-bats, were offset by a whole lot of nothing from most of the team. And they continue to underperform. Offensively, they "created" 23 runs this week, yet managed to score only 19. And their best offensive player (Pedroia) was on paternity duty, limiting his time on the field.
  • 60% of their at-bats this week went to players who produced less than a .300 ob-base percentage. Those nine players hit a cumulative .171/.208/.260/.468. They were lucky to score 19 runs.
  • I don't care how much of a defensive wizard Jose Iglesias is, he can't hit Major League pitching (.000/.250/.000/.250 for the week, .133/.235/.167/.402 for the season). And he's shown nothing to make me think that he ever will.
  • Small sample size, right? Just a few Major League at-bats, too few to make that judgement? True. Here's what he's done above low-A ball: AA (.285/.315/.357/.672) AAA (.251/.302/.287/.589) Above low A (.259/.305/.304/.609)
  • And if you're a position player who can't hit, I don't want you on my team.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Dustin Pedroia (.500/.533/.786/1.319) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.400/.438/.867/1.304) each played well, but each also only played in four games. The best performance in six games came from Jacoby Ellsbury (.360/.429/.400/.829), who was fine but not award-worthy. So this goes vacant again.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Five relief pitchers made at least two scoreless appearances. Junichi Tazawa, Andrew Bailey, Craig Breslow, Christopher Carpenter and Andrew Miller pitched 12 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing only five hits and four walks while striking out 16. So they each get 1/5 of a Pitcher of the Week award.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/17/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.11(1)4.27(7)0.582(1)856187592
New York4.82(2)4.16(4)0.567(2)836383630
Oakland4.25(10)3.7(2)0.563(3)826484622
Tampa Bay4.15(12)3.64(1)0.559(4)82647868-4
Chicago4.73(4)4.21(5)0.553(5)80657966-1
Los Angeles4.75(3)4.27(8)0.548(6)81668067-1
Detroit4.48(7)4.21(5)0.528(7)776877680
Baltimore4.36(9)4.49(9)0.486(8)7175826411
Boston4.67(5)4.82(12)0.486(9)71766681-5
Seattle3.79(14)3.99(3)0.477(10)707770770
Toronto4.5(6)4.76(11)0.475(11)69766679-3
Kansas City4.25(10)4.54(10)0.469(12)69776680-3
Minnesota4.39(8)5.21(14)0.423(13)62856087-2
Cleveland3.99(13)5.2(13)0.38(14)569161865
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas9765
Oakland9369
New York9270
Baltimore9171
Chicago8874
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas9666
Oakland9369
New York9270
Baltimore9072
Chicago8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Chicago5.83(1)3.17(1)0.754(1)5142-1
Baltimore4.67(5)3.17(1)0.67(2)42420
Kansas City5.83(1)4.17(9)0.649(3)4233-1
Texas5.33(3)3.83(8)0.647(4)42420
Toronto4.17(6)3.5(3)0.579(5)3324-1
New York4.17(6)3.5(3)0.579(5)33421
Detroit4.83(4)4.17(9)0.567(7)33421
Los Angeles4(8)3.71(6)0.534(8)4334-1
Oakland3.71(9)3.71(6)0.5(9)43521
Boston3.17(12)3.67(5)0.433(10)33330
Seattle3.67(10)5(11)0.362(11)24331
Tampa Bay3.17(12)5(11)0.302(12)2415-1
Cleveland3.29(11)5.29(13)0.295(13)25250
Minnesota3.14(14)6.29(14)0.22(14)25250

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