Monday Pythagorean - 7/9/2012

I know that there are pessimists out there who would look at this week as a downer, but hey - they won one! Ugh.

• The Red Sox blew a nine-run lead against New York back in April, and then got rained out. When that game got rained out, the Red Sox were struggling, and it seemed reasonable to expect that things would be a little bit better when it got replayed. Ellsbury would be back, or Youkilis would be healthy, or the bullpen would be squared away. Instead, Ellsbury's not back, Crawford's not back, Youkilis is out of town and his rookie replacement is hurt, and, the icing on the cake, Pedroia heads to the DL the day before the series.
• Five. Four. Three. Two. Those are the runs scored for the Yankees in the top of the first. If this had been a six game series, the Red Sox would have come to bat in the first without trailing.
• Tough to win when your starters are putting you in a hole before the game's really underway. Starters ERA vs. the Yankees? 9.00.
• So, another Middlebrooks-less week passes. Good thing they panic-rushed Youkilis out of town, huh?
• Have I mentioned recently that I was not a fan of the Youkilis trade?
• OK, who the hell is Pedro Ciriaco? And what are the odds that he gets seven more hits in a Red Sox uniform?
• There was a brief period where we could have pondered, or debated, the question, "should Carl Crawford replace Daniel Nava in the lineup when he comes back?" It would be a pretty dull debate right now. Nava's now hitting .248/.345/.347/.691 over the last five weeks, .132/.233/.226/.460 over the last two.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Stop me if you've heard this one before. David Ortiz (.435/.581/.609/1.189), who continues to be the Red Sox best offensive player, week in and week out, by a very large margin...
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - How bad a week was it? The Pitcher of the Week, as sad as it seems, is going to a reliever making his Red Sox debut in a 6-1 loss to the Yankees. But for 5 2/3 innings, Justin Germano kept it from getting any worse, and, more importantly, kept all of the other relievers in the bullpen in the first game of a double header.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/9/2012

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5.15	(1)	4.23	(7)	0.589	(1)	51	35	52	34	1
New York	4.85	(4)	4.08	(4)	0.578	(2)	49	36	52	33	3
Chicago	4.81	(5)	4.07	(3)	0.576	(3)	49	36	47	38	-2
Los Angeles	4.4	(8)	3.88	(2)	0.556	(4)	48	38	48	38	0
Boston	5.02	(2)	4.52	(9)	0.548	(5)	47	39	43	43	-4
Toronto	5	(3)	4.74	(12)	0.524	(6)	45	41	43	43	-2
Detroit	4.5	(7)	4.43	(8)	0.507	(7)	44	42	44	42	0
Tampa Bay	4.22	(9)	4.17	(5)	0.505	(8)	43	43	45	41	2
Oakland	3.71	(14)	3.67	(1)	0.504	(9)	43	43	43	43	0
Cleveland	4.53	(6)	4.87	(13)	0.467	(10)	40	45	44	41	4
Seattle	3.87	(13)	4.2	(6)	0.464	(11)	40	47	36	51	-4
Baltimore	4.13	(11)	4.55	(10)	0.455	(12)	39	46	45	40	6
Kansas City	4.1	(12)	4.58	(11)	0.449	(13)	38	46	37	47	-1
Minnesota	4.16	(10)	5.19	(14)	0.401	(14)	34	51	36	49	2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	99	63
Texas	98	64
Chicago	90	72
Los Angeles	90	72
Baltimore	86	76

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Texas	97	65
New York	96	66
Chicago	91	71
Los Angeles	90	72
Boston	85	77

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Chicago	6.83	(1)	3.33	(3)	0.788	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Detroit	5.86	(2)	4	(4)	0.668	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Oakland	3.17	(12)	2.33	(1)	0.636	(3)	4	2	5	1	1
Cleveland	5.71	(3)	4.57	(8)	0.601	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
Tampa Bay	5	(5)	4.29	(5)	0.57	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
New York	5.57	(4)	5	(10)	0.549	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Seattle	3.5	(11)	3.17	(2)	0.546	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Los Angeles	4.43	(8)	4.43	(6)	0.5	(8)	4	3	4	3	0
Minnesota	4.14	(9)	4.43	(6)	0.47	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Kansas City	4.86	(6)	5.43	(11)	0.449	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Toronto	4.57	(7)	5.57	(12)	0.41	(11)	3	4	3	4	0
Baltimore	3.14	(13)	4.57	(8)	0.335	(12)	2	5	3	4	1
Boston	3.71	(10)	5.71	(13)	0.313	(13)	2	5	1	6	-1
Texas	2.67	(14)	6.17	(14)	0.177	(14)	1	5	2	4	1