Monday, June 04, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 6/4/2012

3 games over .500 on the week gets them - finally - over .500 for the season and - finally (albeit temporarily) - out of last place...
  • Through 54 games, exactly one-third of the season, the 2012 Red Sox are 28-26, two games behind their 2011 brethren, and tied for last in the AL East, three games back. A year ago, the 30-24 2011 Red Sox were in first place in the AL East.
  • To get some idea of how many injuries they've had, 22 Position players (and three pitchers) have had plate appearances for Boston thus far, vs. only 16 for the 2011 team (and they hadn't played in an NL park in the first third of the 2011 season).
  • The 2012 team has a lower OBP, but higher batting average and significantly higher SLG, and they've created (and scored) more runs. The 2012 team has also done a better job converting raw offensive events into runs than their 2011 counterparts. 2011(.266/.340/.427/.767), 270 created vs. 256 scored 2012(.273/.332/.458/.791), 284 created vs. 283 scored
  • One of the interesting aspects of the offensive improvement is that players who weren't here last year are not only making up for the performances of the players they're replacing, they're also replacing the runs by which the offensive stars of last year are underperforming last years performances, either because of injury or just plain ineffectiveness. Through 54 games last year, the offensive core of the team, Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzalez and Youkilis, had created 176 runs. That same group of players has produced only 120 runs through 54 games this year. David Ortiz (.315/.391/.596/.987) has improved over 2011 (.306/.378/.549/.927), as has Dustin Pedroia [(.295/.350/.450/.800) vs. (.243/.351/.335/.686)]. The others have underperformed by a lot, particularly Adrian Gonzalez ](.269/.322/.417/.739) vs (.332/.379/.547/.926)].
  • What kind of odds do you think you could have gotten in Vegas two months ago for the following comparative stat lines?
    Daniel Nava, Will Middlebrooks(.309/.390/.539/.930), 178 AB, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 21 BB
    Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis(.261/.322/.412/.734), 318 AB, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 25 BB
  • The Bard performance on Sunday was concerning. Everyone has a bad outing, but it's not the badness that's concerning - it's the fact that he completely lost the ability to throw strikes. Getting hit is one thing; losing the ability to control the ball is something else entirely. And it wasn't a little bit wild; it was historically out of control.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Great weeks for a couple of young pups, Daniel Nava (.333/.438/.556/.993) and Will Middlebrooks (.357/.400/.571/.971), are overshadowed by Old Man Papi, as David Ortiz (.385/.448/.846/1.294) just keeps rolling along...
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Tough call this week. There were several good relief performances, but there are two good starters, and that's generally going to win out. The question is, does the fact that Doubront was effective twice outweigh the fact that Buchholz went eight in a dominant start? I think, at least for this week, no, it does not. So the pitcher of the week is Clay Buchholz who, for the first time this year, looked like the dominant Buchholz we saw two years ago, going eight innings and allowing eight baserunners and two runs while striking out seven, and even working out of a jam in the 8th.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/4/2012







ProjectedActual


R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.59(1)4.11(5)0.637(1)34203222-2
Chicago4.81(3)4.07(4)0.576(2)312331230
New York4.7(5)4.26(7)0.544(3)292429240
Toronto4.81(3)4.41(10)0.54(4)29252826-1
Tampa Bay4.26(9)3.93(3)0.537(5)292531232
Boston5.24(2)4.83(12)0.537(6)29252826-1
Los Angeles3.8(13)3.67(1)0.516(7)282728270
Baltimore4.37(7)4.37(8)0.5(8)272730243
Seattle4.18(10)4.2(6)0.498(9)28282432-4
Detroit4.31(8)4.57(11)0.473(10)26282529-1
Kansas City3.98(11)4.38(9)0.456(11)24282329-1
Cleveland4.4(6)4.85(13)0.455(12)242928254
Oakland3.2(14)3.87(2)0.414(13)223223311
Minnesota3.96(12)5.36(14)0.365(14)193420331
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas9666
Chicago9369
Tampa Bay9369
Baltimore9072
New York8973
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas10161
Chicago9369
Tampa Bay8973
New York8874
Toronto8676
Standings for the week







ProjectedActual


R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Chicago5.33(2)3.67(4)0.665(1)42511
Seattle8.17(1)5.67(13)0.661(2)4233-1
Minnesota4.33(8)3.33(3)0.618(3)42511
Boston5.29(4)4.14(7)0.61(4)43521
Toronto4.83(5)4(6)0.586(5)42420
Kansas City4.33(8)3.67(4)0.576(6)33421
New York5.33(2)4.67(9)0.561(7)33330
Los Angeles4.83(5)4.33(8)0.55(8)33421
Tampa Bay3.33(12)3.17(1)0.523(9)3324-1
Cleveland4.5(7)5.5(11)0.409(10)24240
Oakland2.5(13)3.17(1)0.394(11)2415-1
Detroit3.86(11)5.57(12)0.338(12)25250
Texas4.33(8)7.17(14)0.285(13)24240
Baltimore2.5(13)5.33(10)0.2(14)15150

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