Monday Pythagorean - 5/28/2012

The ninth-inning-down-by-one-two-run-homer-off-the-closer giveth and the ninth-inning-down-by-one-two-run-homer-off-the-closer taketh away...

• So, three times this week, they took the field with the chance to get back to .500, and each time they succeeded.  And then three times, they took the field with a chance to get over .500 for the first time this year, and each time they failed.



• They'll get over .500, and they'll stay over .500, but when it happens, it will have taken them a long time to get there.



• Is this the week that it happens?  5-2 or better and it will be.  4-3 or worse and they'll be at or below .500 next Monday morning.



• Obviously, the week could have easily been worse, if Saltalamacchia doesn't hit that pinch-hit walk-off homer on Saturday.  But it could easily have been better, too, as they were poised to take 2-of-3 from Tampa until Rodriguez' HR on Sunday.



• Great to see:  A third consecutive outstanding performance from Josh Beckett.  A reminder of what Clay Buchholz is when he's right.  Gonzalez goes deep in a critical spot.  A walk-off pinch HR.



• Not great to see:  When Jon Lester isn't good, he isn't so-so - he's bad.  The lead-off hitter (Aviles) going 4-25 with no walks.  Adrian Gonzalez (.250/.240/.458/.698) with an OBP less than his BA (1 SF, no walks), especially when the BA is only .250.



• Red Sox Player of the Week - I'll confess, this surprised me, because I hadn't realized how strong his week was, but the best offensive performance on the week came from Kevin Youkilis (.375/.474/.563/1.036), who gathered 6 hits, including a HR, and 3 BB in 19 plate appearances.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - For the second straight week, it's Josh Beckett, who gave up just two runs on four hits and no walks, with five strikeouts, over seven strong innings in his 3rd straight very good start.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/28/2012

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5.75	(1)	3.73	(2)	0.688	(1)	33	15	30	18	-3
Chicago	4.75	(4)	4.13	(6)	0.564	(2)	27	21	26	22	-1
New York	4.62	(5)	4.21	(7)	0.542	(3)	25	22	26	21	1
Tampa Bay	4.38	(9)	4.02	(5)	0.539	(4)	26	22	29	19	3
Baltimore	4.6	(6)	4.25	(8)	0.537	(5)	26	22	29	19	3
Toronto	4.81	(3)	4.46	(10)	0.535	(6)	26	22	24	24	-2
Boston	5.23	(2)	4.94	(13)	0.527	(7)	25	22	23	24	-2
Los Angeles	3.67	(13)	3.59	(1)	0.51	(8)	25	24	24	25	-1
Detroit	4.38	(7)	4.43	(9)	0.496	(9)	23	24	23	24	0
Seattle	3.7	(12)	4.02	(4)	0.462	(10)	23	27	21	29	-2
Cleveland	4.38	(7)	4.77	(12)	0.462	(11)	22	25	26	21	4
Kansas City	3.93	(10)	4.48	(11)	0.441	(12)	20	26	19	27	-1
Oakland	3.29	(14)	3.96	(3)	0.416	(13)	20	28	22	26	2
Minnesota	3.91	(11)	5.62	(14)	0.341	(14)	16	31	15	32	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Texas	101	61
Tampa Bay	98	64
Baltimore	98	64
New York	90	72
Cleveland	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Texas	108	54
Chicago	90	72
Tampa Bay	90	72
Baltimore	90	72
New York	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Los Angeles	3.86	(11)	1.71	(1)	0.815	(1)	6	1	6	1	0
New York	4.67	(5)	2.67	(2)	0.736	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	9	(1)	5.5	(11)	0.711	(3)	4	2	5	1	1
Texas	6.83	(2)	4.67	(9)	0.668	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Detroit	4.33	(9)	3.83	(4)	0.556	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	4.67	(5)	4.17	(6)	0.552	(6)	3	3	2	4	-1
Tampa Bay	4.67	(5)	4.17	(6)	0.552	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Boston	4.17	(10)	4.67	(9)	0.448	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Kansas City	3.5	(12)	4	(5)	0.439	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Seattle	3	(13)	3.57	(3)	0.421	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Minnesota	4.83	(4)	6.5	(12)	0.368	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Cleveland	4.5	(8)	6.83	(13)	0.318	(12)	2	4	3	3	1
Toronto	5.17	(3)	8.17	(14)	0.302	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Oakland	1.33	(14)	4.33	(8)	0.104	(14)	1	5	1	5	0