Monday, May 28, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 5/28/2012


The ninth-inning-down-by-one-two-run-homer-off-the-closer giveth and the ninth-inning-down-by-one-two-run-homer-off-the-closer taketh away...

  • So, three times this week, they took the field with the chance to get back to .500, and each time they succeeded.  And then three times, they took the field with a chance to get over .500 for the first time this year, and each time they failed.


  • They'll get over .500, and they'll stay over .500, but when it happens, it will have taken them a long time to get there.


  • Is this the week that it happens?  5-2 or better and it will be.  4-3 or worse and they'll be at or below .500 next Monday morning.


  • Obviously, the week could have easily been worse, if Saltalamacchia doesn't hit that pinch-hit walk-off homer on Saturday.  But it could easily have been better, too, as they were poised to take 2-of-3 from Tampa until Rodriguez' HR on Sunday.


  • Great to see:  A third consecutive outstanding performance from Josh Beckett.  A reminder of what Clay Buchholz is when he's right.  Gonzalez goes deep in a critical spot.  A walk-off pinch HR.


  • Not great to see:  When Jon Lester isn't good, he isn't so-so - he's bad.  The lead-off hitter (Aviles) going 4-25 with no walks.  Adrian Gonzalez (.250/.240/.458/.698) with an OBP less than his BA (1 SF, no walks), especially when the BA is only .250.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - I'll confess, this surprised me, because I hadn't realized how strong his week was, but the best offensive performance on the week came from Kevin Youkilis (.375/.474/.563/1.036), who gathered 6 hits, including a HR, and 3 BB in 19 plate appearances.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - For the second straight week, it's Josh Beckett, who gave up just two runs on four hits and no walks, with five strikeouts, over seven strong innings in his 3rd straight very good start.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/28/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.75(1)3.73(2)0.688(1)33153018-3
Chicago4.75(4)4.13(6)0.564(2)27212622-1
New York4.62(5)4.21(7)0.542(3)252226211
Tampa Bay4.38(9)4.02(5)0.539(4)262229193
Baltimore4.6(6)4.25(8)0.537(5)262229193
Toronto4.81(3)4.46(10)0.535(6)26222424-2
Boston5.23(2)4.94(13)0.527(7)25222324-2
Los Angeles3.67(13)3.59(1)0.51(8)25242425-1
Detroit4.38(7)4.43(9)0.496(9)232423240
Seattle3.7(12)4.02(4)0.462(10)23272129-2
Cleveland4.38(7)4.77(12)0.462(11)222526214
Kansas City3.93(10)4.48(11)0.441(12)20261927-1
Oakland3.29(14)3.96(3)0.416(13)202822262
Minnesota3.91(11)5.62(14)0.341(14)16311532-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas10161
Tampa Bay9864
Baltimore9864
New York9072
Cleveland9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas10854
Chicago9072
Tampa Bay9072
Baltimore9072
New York8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Los Angeles3.86(11)1.71(1)0.815(1)61610
New York4.67(5)2.67(2)0.736(2)42511
Chicago9(1)5.5(11)0.711(3)42511
Texas6.83(2)4.67(9)0.668(4)42420
Detroit4.33(9)3.83(4)0.556(5)33330
Baltimore4.67(5)4.17(6)0.552(6)3324-1
Tampa Bay4.67(5)4.17(6)0.552(6)33421
Boston4.17(10)4.67(9)0.448(8)33330
Kansas City3.5(12)4(5)0.439(9)33330
Seattle3(13)3.57(3)0.421(10)3425-1
Minnesota4.83(4)6.5(12)0.368(11)2415-1
Cleveland4.5(8)6.83(13)0.318(12)24331
Toronto5.17(3)8.17(14)0.302(13)2415-1
Oakland1.33(14)4.33(8)0.104(14)15150



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