Monday, April 30, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 4/30/2012

We live in a post-modern, relativistic age, where certainty and judgementalism are frowned upon. I'm going to buck the spirit of the age and state, unequivocally, that 6-1 is better than 0-5.

  • Obviously, Minnesota and Chicago are not Tampa and Detroit and Texas and New York. Doesn't matter. You've got to beat the teams on the schedule. Last week, they didn't do that. This week, they did.
  • Big hits: Kevin Youkilis' Grand Slam on Thursday night. Darnell McDonald's three-run double on Friday night.
  • Philip Humber followed up his perfect game with the worst start of his ML career, as the Red Sox put up nine runs against him in less than five innings of work.
  • One of the things that was different between this week and last was the timeliness (i.e., "luck" or "clutchness" [depending on your worldview]) of their offensive production. Last week they created 22 runs and scored 17. This week, they created 37 and scored 46. (Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, the second one, I think...)
  • The Red Sox are up to second in the league in runs scored. They are up to 13th in the league in runs allowed.
  • Again, they're exactly where they were a year ago after 21 games - 10-11. Like last year, they are 3 1/2 games out in the East after 21 games, albeit in 5th rather than 3rd.
  • Unlike last year, they reached .500 for the first time after game 20. Last year, it took them until game 40.
  • After five days (six if you go back to last week) of beating up opposition pitchers, they've now scored only one run in consecutive games. Thanks to Lester, that was good enough to come out of those two games with a split.
  • Scoring one run per game is not a good long-term strategy.
  • Quote of the week: "Are you trying to give me a heart attack?"
    - Bobby Valentine to Alfredo Aceves, after Aceves gave up a long fly ball with one man on and a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth in the first game in Minnesota
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - There were some good performances from the offense, but nothing overpowering. What happened instead was they had very good individual games by players scattered throughout the lineups, and not much in the way of offensive sinkholes. The best performance on a per-out basis (for a player with more than 8 at-bats) was David Ortiz, but from a counting stats perspective, it was Mike Aviles. Given the positional difference, I'm going with Aviles this week.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - A lot of candidates here. Alfredo Aceves saved three games with three scoreless performances. Five different relievers pitched multiple innings without allowing a run. Daniel Bard had an effective relief performance and a very good start. But, despite the fact that his first of two wins on the week was a mediocre performance, I'm going to go with Jon Lester, whose stellar performance on Saturday resulted in a win in a game in which they scored only one run.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.45(3)3.05(1)0.744(1)1661660
New York5.62(1)4.81(11)0.571(2)1291290
Baltimore4.32(7)3.73(3)0.567(3)12101482
Toronto4.73(4)4.18(6)0.556(4)121012100
Tampa Bay4.68(5)4.36(8)0.532(5)12101482
Chicago3.86(12)3.73(3)0.516(6)111111110
Cleveland4.5(6)4.55(9)0.495(7)10101191
Boston5.52(2)5.62(13)0.492(8)101110110
Seattle4(9)4.35(7)0.462(9)111211120
Detroit4.27(8)4.73(10)0.454(10)101211111
Los Angeles3.45(13)4.14(5)0.418(11)913715-2
Oakland2.91(14)3.52(2)0.414(12)101311121
Kansas City3.95(11)4.86(12)0.407(13)912615-3
Minnesota4(9)5.71(14)0.342(14)714615-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas11844
Baltimore10359
Tampa Bay10359
New York9369
Cleveland8973

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas12042
Baltimore9369
New York9270
Toronto9072
Tampa Bay8973

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Baltimore4.5(5)1.83(1)0.838(1)51510
Boston6.57(1)3.29(5)0.78(2)52611
Tampa Bay4.5(5)3(2)0.677(3)42511
Toronto3.71(10)3.14(3)0.576(4)4334-1
Seattle5.33(2)4.67(11)0.561(5)33421
Kansas City4.5(5)4.17(8)0.535(6)33330
Texas4.33(8)4.17(8)0.518(7)33330
New York4.67(4)4.67(11)0.5(8)33330
Cleveland2.67(11)3.17(4)0.422(9)33330
Minnesota5.2(3)7(14)0.367(10)2314-1
Chicago2.57(12)4.14(7)0.295(11)25250
Detroit4(9)6.5(13)0.291(12)2415-1
Oakland2.5(13)4.17(8)0.282(13)24331
Los Angeles1.5(14)3.33(6)0.188(14)15150

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