Monday, April 23, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 4/23/2012

I know things look a bit gloomy right now, but lets look at the bright side. Remember how painful that collapse was last September? Well, the Red Sox are sympathetic and determined not to put their fans through that again...

  • The best day of the week was Sunday, as they got rained out. The second best day of the week was Thursday, because they had a scheduled off-day.
  • It's not like there's just one part of the team struggling. They lost a game this week in which they allowed one run. They lost a game this week in which they scored nine.
  • I'm tempted to say that the offense was particularly bad this week, scoring three runs or fewer in four consecutive games. But that would not be giving fair credit to the pitching, as they allowed 18, six, six and 15 in four consecutive games, too.
  • So they are now in a flat-footed tie with the 2011 Red Sox for worst start in the 2010s by a Red Sox team, at 4-10.
  • Noteworthy - the two "end-of-the-game" pitchers faced 17 batters this week and retired zero (0) of them, allowing 6 walks, 11 hits and 11 runs. I'm willing to cut Aceves a smidge of slack as he hadn't pitched in a week, because they hadn't had a lead after the 2nd inning in a week. Melancon's now going to see if he can get AAA hitters out.
  • So, who's responsible for this putrid start? Everyone.

    • The starting pitchers - In 14 games, they've got six quality starts. They've also got six starts in which the starter gave up at least five runs (and three of those were seven run performances). They've been behind in almost every game.
    • The bullpen - See that note about the two "end-of-the-game" pitcher just above? Well, they've been representational rather than aberrational.
    • The position players - Pedroia's been mediocre. Adrian Gonzalez (.281/.317/.439/.756) and Kevin Youkilis (.190/.271/.310/.580) are the middle of the lineup, and they've been bad and worse. My "favorite" line so far is probably Jason Repko's, who has been up 11 times and made 11 outs, as his one hit was a single and he was thrown out at 2nd trying to stretch it into a double. That's right, he hasn't reached base by any means yet.
    • The Manager - Keeps putting Jason Repko on the field. And I'm going to complain about a game I didn't even see - with two runners on base in the seventh inning on Monday, I was watching the gamecast on my phone, and knew it was time to get Bard out of the game. As we were waiting for the parade to step off in Lexington, my son asked my whether there was any score yet, and I told him, "no, but there will be in a minute." Ball four, bases loaded. And Bard stays in the game. Ball four, 1-0 Tampa, now Bard comes out.
    • The General Manager - Why the hell is Jason Repko employed by the Red Sox in the first place? Why would you even consider adding a player like that? Yes, if people aren't hurt, he's not playing. But even if people are hurt, you don't want him playing. His presence in the organization is an unforced error by the GM. There have been 504 Major Leaguers with 775+ plate appearances since Repko debuted in 2005. He's the 475th best of them offensively. He's not a valid Major League hitter. A team with the budget of the Red Sox has got to have six outfielders in its organization more worthy of at-bats than Jason Repko, or the GM's not doing his job.
  • But things are looking up, because they always play well in Minnesota, right?
  • Red Sox Player of the week - There were some who thought he was done two years ago, but apparently not, as David Ortiz (.421/.476/.684/1.160) had another excellent week and is off to a great start.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the week - The two "questionable" components to the starting rotation had very good starts this week. It's tough to reward a pitcher who walks in the go-ahead run in a tie game in the 7th inning, but in terms of doing his job - retire the most oppenent batters while allowing the fewer opponent runs - Daniel Bard was the most successful starter they had, followed closely by Felix Doubront, who gave up one in six innings, and handed an eight-run lead off to the bullpen.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/23/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.88(2)2.63(1)0.814(1)1331330
Chicago4.47(7)3.53(3)0.606(2)96960
New York6(1)4.87(9)0.595(3)96960
Toronto5.2(4)4.67(8)0.549(4)87961
Detroit4.38(8)4.06(4)0.534(5)971061
Cleveland5.29(3)5.14(12)0.513(6)77861
Tampa Bay4.75(6)4.88(10)0.488(7)88971
Baltimore4.25(9)4.44(6)0.48(8)88971
Los Angeles4.19(10)4.44(6)0.473(9)88610-2
Oakland3.06(14)3.29(2)0.466(10)89890
Seattle3.53(13)4.24(5)0.417(11)7107100
Boston5(5)6.79(14)0.364(12)59410-1
Kansas City3.73(11)5.13(11)0.358(13)510312-2
Minnesota3.63(12)5.31(13)0.332(14)5115110

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas13230
Detroit10161
Chicago9765
New York9765
Toronto9765

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas13230
Chicago9864
New York9666
Toronto9072
Detroit8874

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas8.17(1)3(1)0.862(1)51510
Tampa Bay5.57(3)3(1)0.756(2)52520
Chicago5(5)3.71(6)0.633(3)43430
New York7.33(2)5.5(12)0.629(4)42420
Oakland3.43(10)3(1)0.561(5)43430
Los Angeles3.57(9)3.43(4)0.519(6)4334-1
Cleveland3.67(8)3.67(5)0.5(7)33421
Baltimore4(7)4.43(7)0.454(8)34431
Toronto5.17(4)5.83(13)0.445(9)33421
Minnesota4.29(6)5.29(11)0.405(10)34340
Detroit3.14(13)4.43(7)0.348(11)25432
Seattle3.33(12)5(10)0.323(12)2415-1
Kansas City2.83(14)4.67(9)0.286(13)2406-2
Boston3.4(11)9.2(14)0.139(14)1405-1

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