Monday, April 16, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 4/16/2012

Well. Week 2 was a bit more successful than week 1. Or, as Dorothy Gale would put it, "there's no place like home. There's no place like home..."

  • The good news included the very successful rotation debut of Felix Doubront, another good start from Jon Lester and, perhaps most importantly on the starting front, the dominant performance from Josh Beckett in the home opener.
  • It was also good to see Buchholz respond to a bad first performance and a bad 1st inning in the second to put up six excellent innings.
  • Can we take a deep breath and relax, at least a little, about the bullpen? As I said last week, Alfredo Aceves is a very good pitcher and there's no reason whatsover to think that he won't be able to successfully pitch 9th innings.
  • Obviously, it was a week of silver linings that was not without its dark cloud. The biggest and darkest of which was the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury for some yet-to-be-determined (and, no doubt, much-to-be-argued-about) time with a separated shoulder in a bit of a fluke play at 2nd base in the home opener. The good news is that it didn't have much effect on their performance in the Tampa series. But he's not a fungible talent; the likes of Cody Ross and Jason Repko and Che-Hsuan Lin won't replace him.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The Red Sox offense came alive in the presence of home cooking, and nobody more than David Ortiz, who hit .692/.714/1.231/1.945 over the weekend to put up a .458/.519/.750/1.269 week with 1 HR, which tied the Sunday game, 4 doubles and 3 walks.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester was very good again. They got good work from Scott Atchison and Franklin Morales out of the 'pen. Alfredo Aceves' performances at the end of three games was enough to significantly calm the initial "oh my God, our closer's hurt!" panic. But the performance of the week, all things considered - his September, his first start, his thumb, the 1-5 record, the division opponent - was Josh Beckett's domination of Tampa in the home opener.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/16/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas4.5(7)2.4(1)0.76(1)82820
Detroit5.33(3)3.78(4)0.653(2)63630
Toronto5.22(4)3.89(6)0.632(3)6354-1
Chicago4(11)3.38(2)0.577(4)53530
New York5.11(5)4.44(7)0.564(5)54540
Boston5.89(2)5.44(11)0.536(6)5445-1
Cleveland6.5(1)6.25(13)0.518(7)44440
Baltimore4.44(8)4.44(7)0.5(8)54540
Seattle3.64(12)3.82(5)0.478(9)56651
Los Angeles4.67(6)5.22(9)0.449(10)4536-1
Oakland2.8(14)3.5(3)0.399(11)46460
Kansas City4.33(9)5.44(11)0.397(12)4536-1
Tampa Bay4.11(10)6.33(14)0.312(13)36451
Minnesota3.11(13)5.33(10)0.272(14)27270

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas13032
Detroit10854
Chicago10161
Toronto9072
New York9072

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas12339
Detroit10656
Toronto10260
Chicago9468
New York9171

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas4.86(7)2.57(1)0.762(1)52611
Boston6.5(2)3.83(6)0.724(2)42420
Chicago5.2(4)3.2(3)0.709(3)41410
New York5.67(3)3.67(5)0.689(4)42511
Toronto5(6)3.83(6)0.619(5)4233-1
Cleveland8(1)6.6(13)0.587(6)32320
Detroit3.67(11)3.33(4)0.543(7)33330
Los Angeles5.17(5)5.67(10)0.458(8)3324-1
Oakland2.17(14)2.67(2)0.406(9)24331
Seattle3(13)3.86(8)0.387(10)34340
Baltimore4.17(9)5.83(11)0.351(11)24240
Minnesota3.83(10)5.5(9)0.341(12)24240
Kansas City4.33(8)6.33(12)0.333(13)2415-1
Tampa Bay3.17(12)7.5(14)0.171(14)15150

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