Monday Pythagorean - 4/16/2012

Well. Week 2 was a bit more successful than week 1. Or, as Dorothy Gale would put it, "there's no place like home. There's no place like home..."

• The good news included the very successful rotation debut of Felix Doubront, another good start from Jon Lester and, perhaps most importantly on the starting front, the dominant performance from Josh Beckett in the home opener.
• It was also good to see Buchholz respond to a bad first performance and a bad 1st inning in the second to put up six excellent innings.
• Can we take a deep breath and relax, at least a little, about the bullpen? As I said last week, Alfredo Aceves is a very good pitcher and there's no reason whatsover to think that he won't be able to successfully pitch 9th innings.
• Obviously, it was a week of silver linings that was not without its dark cloud. The biggest and darkest of which was the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury for some yet-to-be-determined (and, no doubt, much-to-be-argued-about) time with a separated shoulder in a bit of a fluke play at 2nd base in the home opener. The good news is that it didn't have much effect on their performance in the Tampa series. But he's not a fungible talent; the likes of Cody Ross and Jason Repko and Che-Hsuan Lin won't replace him.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - The Red Sox offense came alive in the presence of home cooking, and nobody more than David Ortiz, who hit .692/.714/1.231/1.945 over the weekend to put up a .458/.519/.750/1.269 week with 1 HR, which tied the Sunday game, 4 doubles and 3 walks.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester was very good again. They got good work from Scott Atchison and Franklin Morales out of the 'pen. Alfredo Aceves' performances at the end of three games was enough to significantly calm the initial "oh my God, our closer's hurt!" panic. But the performance of the week, all things considered - his September, his first start, his thumb, the 1-5 record, the division opponent - was Josh Beckett's domination of Tampa in the home opener.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/16/2012

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	4.5	(7)	2.4	(1)	0.76	(1)	8	2	8	2	0
Detroit	5.33	(3)	3.78	(4)	0.653	(2)	6	3	6	3	0
Toronto	5.22	(4)	3.89	(6)	0.632	(3)	6	3	5	4	-1
Chicago	4	(11)	3.38	(2)	0.577	(4)	5	3	5	3	0
New York	5.11	(5)	4.44	(7)	0.564	(5)	5	4	5	4	0
Boston	5.89	(2)	5.44	(11)	0.536	(6)	5	4	4	5	-1
Cleveland	6.5	(1)	6.25	(13)	0.518	(7)	4	4	4	4	0
Baltimore	4.44	(8)	4.44	(7)	0.5	(8)	5	4	5	4	0
Seattle	3.64	(12)	3.82	(5)	0.478	(9)	5	6	6	5	1
Los Angeles	4.67	(6)	5.22	(9)	0.449	(10)	4	5	3	6	-1
Oakland	2.8	(14)	3.5	(3)	0.399	(11)	4	6	4	6	0
Kansas City	4.33	(9)	5.44	(11)	0.397	(12)	4	5	3	6	-1
Tampa Bay	4.11	(10)	6.33	(14)	0.312	(13)	3	6	4	5	1
Minnesota	3.11	(13)	5.33	(10)	0.272	(14)	2	7	2	7	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Texas	130	32
Detroit	108	54
Chicago	101	61
Toronto	90	72
New York	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Texas	123	39
Detroit	106	56
Toronto	102	60
Chicago	94	68
New York	91	71

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	4.86	(7)	2.57	(1)	0.762	(1)	5	2	6	1	1
Boston	6.5	(2)	3.83	(6)	0.724	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Chicago	5.2	(4)	3.2	(3)	0.709	(3)	4	1	4	1	0
New York	5.67	(3)	3.67	(5)	0.689	(4)	4	2	5	1	1
Toronto	5	(6)	3.83	(6)	0.619	(5)	4	2	3	3	-1
Cleveland	8	(1)	6.6	(13)	0.587	(6)	3	2	3	2	0
Detroit	3.67	(11)	3.33	(4)	0.543	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	5.17	(5)	5.67	(10)	0.458	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Oakland	2.17	(14)	2.67	(2)	0.406	(9)	2	4	3	3	1
Seattle	3	(13)	3.86	(8)	0.387	(10)	3	4	3	4	0
Baltimore	4.17	(9)	5.83	(11)	0.351	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Minnesota	3.83	(10)	5.5	(9)	0.341	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Kansas City	4.33	(8)	6.33	(12)	0.333	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Tampa Bay	3.17	(12)	7.5	(14)	0.171	(14)	1	5	1	5	0