Monday, July 25, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 7/25/2011

A 5-1 week brings them to 7-2 since the All Star break, and 16-3 in the month of July...

  • Tonight, the Red Sox will play their 100th game of the season. This seems a good point to look, again, at the way the season started, and the way that it's gone since. Right now, Boston is 62-37. That's a 62.6 winning percentage that puts them on a pace to win 101 games. But they lost their first six and 10 of their first 12. Since starting 2-10, they've gone 60-27. That's a winning percentage of 69%, and it represents a 112-win pace.
  • So, in the words of Dennis Green, "they are who we thought they are."
  • (And apparently, the "hunger" problem wasn't really a problem...)
  • News of the week - Reddick appears to have replaced Drew in RF on a more-or-less permanent basis. Until he gets hurt or slumps really badly. That looks like the right decision. Whether Drew is completely done or not, Reddick's having a much better season, and Drew's done nothing this year. The Drew-haters can gloat, and keep putting him on those "worst signing ever lists," but he gave them good production for four years and earned what they paid him for most of that time. And I'm sure that when they signed him, they understood that the fifth year might not work. But at least they've apparently got a replacement ready.
  • There was great concern about the catching situation coming in to the season, but they've ended up with a lot of production at the position. Varitek and Saltalamacchia are hitting a combined .249/.322/.433/.755 with 13 HR, and doing a decent job of handling the pitching staff and controlling the running game. It looked like the biggest positional weakness headed into the season, but hasn't turned out that way, as they've gotten significantly better production from catcher than from either corner outfield spot.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - First, I want to make sure that Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.438/.438/.813/1.250) gets an honorable mention. But he only played in four games, hitting near the bottom of the lineup, so only has half of the plate appearances of the top-of-the-lineup guys, which makes it hard for him to really compete for this award. Not impossible but hard. And when you have a week like Jacoby Ellsbury (.462/.483/.846/1.329) just had - again - well, Saltalamacchia has to take his honorable mention and like it. Ellsbury, on the other hand, has developed into the player that they dreamed - not hoped, dreamed - that he'd be. Playing a good CF and hitting .320/.377/.516/.893 with 16 HR, he's going to get - and deserve - MVP votes.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Good performances by both Beckett and Lackey (7 innings, one run) are discounted - significantly - because they came against Seattle. Andrew Miller recovered from his rocky start in Tampa with 5 2/3 scoreless in a win at Baltimore, but walked six. So, despite the fact that this wasn't his best week, this seems the right time to recognize the stellar work of Daniel Bard, who is now unscored upon in his last 24 innings over his last 23 appearances. He hasn't given up a run since May 23 against Cleveland, more than two months ago.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.18(2)3.89(5)0.628(1)62375940-3
Boston5.46(1)4.18(8)0.62(2)613862371
Texas4.96(3)4.17(7)0.579(3)59435844-1
Tampa Bay4.16(8)3.86(3)0.534(4)534753470
Los Angeles3.85(11)3.65(1)0.525(5)544855471
Toronto4.75(4)4.59(12)0.516(6)53495151-2
Cleveland4.31(7)4.3(9)0.501(7)504951481
Chicago3.97(10)3.99(6)0.498(8)50504951-1
Detroit4.48(5)4.52(10)0.495(9)505154474
Oakland3.57(13)3.86(4)0.465(10)47544457-3
Kansas City4.33(6)4.82(13)0.451(11)46554259-4
Seattle3.29(14)3.78(2)0.436(12)44574358-1
Minnesota3.84(12)4.58(11)0.42(13)425947545
Baltimore4.09(9)5.24(14)0.388(14)386040582

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10161
New York9765
Texas9270
Los Angeles8775
Detroit8775

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10161
New York9963
Texas9369
Los Angeles8775
Tampa Bay8676

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.33(5)3.17(2)0.722(1)4233-1
Detroit5.5(3)3.33(3)0.714(2)42420
New York5.57(2)3.57(6)0.693(3)5243-1
Chicago3(13)2(1)0.677(4)32320
Boston7.17(1)4.83(10)0.673(5)42511
Los Angeles4.5(8)3.67(7)0.593(6)42420
Kansas City3.83(9)3.5(4)0.542(7)33421
Toronto5.5(3)5.5(11)0.5(8)33421
Cleveland3.17(11)3.5(4)0.454(9)3324-1
Tampa Bay3.14(12)3.86(8)0.407(10)34340
Oakland5.2(6)8(14)0.313(11)23230
Minnesota3(13)4.63(9)0.312(12)26351
Seattle4.83(7)7.67(13)0.301(13)2406-2
Baltimore3.83(9)6.33(12)0.285(14)24240

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