Monday Pythagorean, 7/18/2011

Short week, short notes...

• The weekend started poorly, with Miller's horrendous start, and then Scutaro and Lackey combined to put them in a hole again on Saturday. But, after allowing 10 runs in the first nine post-All Star Break innings, the pitching and defense allowed only two over the next 24, while the offense did enough to dig them out of Saturday's hole and finish off Sunday's classic.
• Here's the big question of the week - was this a "hiccough" start for Andrew Miller, or the reversion to pumpkin status? It looked frighteningly like the performances that made him available to the Red Sox in the first place. The Red Sox' path to the playoffs is a lot smoother and easier if it was the former than the latter...
• Josh Beckett has made two starts in Tampa this year, and apparently now finds it conducive to pitching well. In those starts, he's given up no runs and only two infield hits over 17 innings, while walking none and striking out 12. One could forgive the Rays for not being interested in seeing him on the mound there again any time soon.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Obviously, the big hit was the 16th inning single that broke the scoreless tie on Sunday night, but Dustin Pedroia had a great series in Tampa. He played his usual stellar defense, while hitting .500/.529/1.000/1.529 with two HR and lapping the field in the Player of the Week competition.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - There were good performances from several members of the bullpen, including Bard, Aceves and Albers. John Lackey settled and overcame the dreadful defense behind him in the first on Saturday to go 5 2/3 and keep them in the game. But clearly, the Pitcher of the Week is Josh Beckett, with his dominant performance on Sunday night.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.15	(2)	3.91	(5)	0.623	(1)	57	35	55	37	-2
Boston	5.35	(1)	4.14	(7)	0.616	(2)	57	36	57	36	0
Texas	4.94	(3)	4.23	(8)	0.57	(3)	55	41	55	41	0
Tampa Bay	4.24	(8)	3.86	(4)	0.542	(4)	50	43	50	43	0
Los Angeles	3.81	(12)	3.65	(2)	0.52	(5)	50	46	51	45	1
Toronto	4.71	(4)	4.53	(10)	0.518	(6)	50	46	47	49	-3
Cleveland	4.39	(6)	4.35	(9)	0.503	(7)	47	46	49	44	2
Chicago	4.02	(10)	4.09	(6)	0.492	(8)	47	48	46	49	-1
Detroit	4.41	(5)	4.6	(12)	0.481	(9)	46	49	50	45	4
Oakland	3.49	(13)	3.65	(2)	0.48	(10)	46	50	42	54	-4
Seattle	3.19	(14)	3.54	(1)	0.453	(11)	43	52	43	52	0
Kansas City	4.36	(7)	4.91	(13)	0.446	(12)	42	53	38	57	-4
Minnesota	3.91	(11)	4.58	(11)	0.429	(13)	40	53	44	49	4
Baltimore	4.11	(9)	5.17	(14)	0.396	(14)	36	56	38	54	2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
New York	97	65
Texas	93	69
Tampa Bay	87	75
Los Angeles	86	76

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	99	63
Boston	99	63
Texas	93	69
Tampa Bay	87	75
Los Angeles	85	77

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	4.25	(9)	0.5	(1)	0.98	(1)	4	0	4	0	0
Chicago	5.33	(4)	2	(2)	0.858	(2)	3	0	2	1	-1
Oakland	5	(6)	2.75	(3)	0.749	(3)	3	1	3	1	0
Minnesota	4.25	(9)	3	(4)	0.654	(4)	3	1	3	1	0
Toronto	6.5	(1)	4.75	(8)	0.64	(5)	3	1	2	2	-1
Boston	5.33	(4)	4.67	(7)	0.561	(6)	2	1	2	1	0
Baltimore	5.75	(2)	5.5	(12)	0.52	(7)	2	2	2	2	0
Cleveland	5.5	(3)	5.75	(13)	0.48	(8)	2	2	2	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.67	(8)	5.33	(10)	0.439	(9)	1	2	1	2	0
New York	4.75	(7)	6.5	(14)	0.36	(10)	1	3	2	2	1
Kansas City	3	(11)	4.25	(5)	0.346	(11)	1	3	1	3	0
Los Angeles	2.75	(12)	5	(9)	0.251	(12)	1	3	1	3	0
Detroit	2	(13)	5.33	(10)	0.142	(13)	0	3	1	2	1
Seattle	0.5	(14)	4.25	(5)	0.02	(14)	0	4	0	4	0