Monday Pythagorean, 6/6/2011

A tale of two weeks, sort of - it was the best of times¹ during a sweep of the A's and the worst of times during a hideous sweep at the hands of the White Sox.

• Giving up 8 runs per game, as they did against Chicago, is a good way to get swept. The interesting thing is that they gave up nearly 6 runs per game against Oakland, yet won all three.
• On the plus side, the offense came out of a brief slump and produced enough that they won half of their games despite the abysmal pitching.
• The two prodigal starters had their short DL stints resoved this week. Lackey's ended with a pretty-good start against the A's on Sunday afternoon, and seems to have mostly resolved the issues he was dealing with. He's back in the rotation and, hopefully, ready to produce. Matsuzaka, on the other hand, moved from the 15-day DL to the 60-day as he prepares to have Tommy John surgery, and dealt with questions about whether or not he's made his last appearance for the Red Sox.
• Another Red Sox pitcher is also headed to the Tommy John list, as Rich Hill is done for the year.
• I don't remember noticing him in the film, but David Ortiz must have been in Captain Jack Sparrow's party when they reached the Fountain of Youth. After hitting .545/.583/1.000/1.583 for the week, he's up to .325/.392/.594/.987 for the season. And after three hits againt Brett Anderson yesterday, he's hitting over .333 against left-handers on the season. If he isn't 2003-2005 Big Papi, well, he's not far off of it, either. There was reason to be concerned about how much he had left, and I certainly hadn't counted on this level of productivity, but he is, at this point, still an excellent and very dangerous hitter.
• Terming it a "panic" may be too strong, but there was great concern over the catching situation during the month of April. But since May 1, Varitek and Saltalamacchia are fielding well, throwing well, and hitting a combined .279/.333/.525/.858, making it actually a position of strength. Short-term blip or long-term trend? Yes, one of those.
• As of Saturday morning, this was true.
  Q: What are two things JD Drew has never done in a Red Sox uniform?
  A: Strike out four times a game and have a walk-off hit.
  He did both of those in Saturday's fourteen-inning win.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Adrian Gonzalez continues to demonstrate that not everyone moving from one league to the other struggles against the new pitching, with another great week, hitting .423/.444/.846/1.291. But as good as he was this week, and as good as he's been on the year, he's actually been their second-best hitter, both on the season and the week. The best hitter of the week was their best hitter of the season, David Ortiz. I'm not going to repeat the numbers because they're right there, but suffice it to say, he's been outstanding, and he's the Player of the Week this week.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - As always, I reserve the right to withhold the award if no one earns it. No one earned it. That's not to say that there were no good pitching performances - there were. Aceves was very good in a long relief stint on Saturday, but awful in a start earlier in the week. Daniel Bard had four excellent outings, but ... Ok, looking at it again, Bard did pitch in all three games against the A's and finished the win yesterday. Five strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings, no runs allowed, no walks and only two hits. The award this week will go, therefore, to Daniel Bard.

¹ - OK, not really the best...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.14	(1)	3.89	(4)	0.624	(1)	36	21	33	24	-3
Texas	4.96	(3)	4.07	(5)	0.59	(2)	35	25	34	26	-1
Toronto	5.09	(2)	4.6	(11)	0.546	(3)	32	27	30	29	-2
Boston	4.92	(5)	4.44	(7)	0.546	(3)	32	27	33	26	1
Cleveland	4.96	(4)	4.52	(9)	0.543	(5)	31	26	33	24	2
Tampa Bay	4.58	(6)	4.47	(8)	0.511	(6)	30	29	30	29	0
Seattle	3.79	(12)	3.71	(1)	0.511	(7)	30	29	31	28	1
Los Angeles	3.84	(11)	3.82	(3)	0.502	(8)	31	30	30	31	-1
Detroit	4.36	(8)	4.41	(6)	0.495	(9)	29	29	31	27	2
Oakland	3.65	(14)	3.78	(2)	0.484	(10)	29	31	27	33	-2
Chicago	4.32	(9)	4.58	(10)	0.474	(11)	29	32	28	33	-1
Kansas City	4.41	(7)	5.1	(14)	0.433	(12)	26	33	25	34	-1
Baltimore	4.09	(10)	4.89	(12)	0.419	(13)	24	33	26	31	2
Minnesota	3.71	(13)	4.97	(13)	0.369	(14)	21	37	21	37	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	94	68
Cleveland	94	68
Texas	92	70
Boston	91	71
Detroit	87	75

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	99	63
Texas	94	68
Cleveland	90	72
Boston	89	73
Toronto	86	76

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	10.5	(1)	4	(4)	0.854	(1)	3	1	6	1	3
New York	4.83	(9)	2.17	(1)	0.813	(2)	5	1	5	1	0
Seattle	5.67	(6)	3	(2)	0.762	(3)	5	1	5	2	0
Minnesota	5.71	(5)	3.43	(3)	0.718	(4)	5	2	4	3	-1
Detroit	5.5	(7)	4.17	(5)	0.624	(5)	4	2	5	1	1
Toronto	6.83	(2)	5.5	(9)	0.598	(6)	4	2	3	3	-1
Chicago	5.83	(4)	4.83	(7)	0.585	(7)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	6.17	(3)	6.83	(12)	0.453	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	3.5	(13)	4.5	(6)	0.387	(9)	2	4	2	4	0
Baltimore	4	(10)	5.2	(8)	0.382	(10)	2	3	2	4	0
Kansas City	3.29	(14)	5.57	(10)	0.276	(11)	2	5	2	5	0
Cleveland	3.71	(11)	6.71	(11)	0.253	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Oakland	3.67	(12)	7	(13)	0.234	(13)	1	5	0	6	-1
Tampa Bay	5.25	(8)	11	(14)	0.205	(14)	1	3	2	5	1