Monday, April 18, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 4/18/2011

Three games under (0-3). Two games under (2-4). One game under (2-3). At least the trajectory is positive. Sooner or later, they'll have a week at .500, or even better...

(Abbreviated commentary this week, typing in my car in Lexington between parades, trying to get posted before battery and/or modem dies...)

  • They take the field on Patriots Day with their longest winning streak of the season - two. Half of their wins over the first fourteen games have come in the last two days.
  • The ballpark looks wonderful, clean and green and neat, while still looking like Fenway. The HD monitor boards in CF and left CF are amazing to look at.
  • As a group, the outfielders were awful - again - hitting .207/.270/.379/.649. Of course, this was much more productive than the catchers, who hit .118/.167/.118/.284.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Is this the first time this award goes to a backup? It might be, but that's not going to be the case for long, anyway. Jed Lowrie probably won't have many weeks like this past one (.533/.563/.867/1.429), but he's a very good hitter, and while the injury problems have caused some people to think of him as a bust, or a backup, I bet the Sox still know what he is...
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The same contest as last week, with the same result. Jon Lester threw two good games to Josh Beckett's one, but Beckett's was better than either of Lester's, and Lester gave up enough runs for the team to lose against Tampa, allowing most of the Rays offense (and all of their runs) in one bad inning. That's enough for Beckett to be the Pitcher of the Week for the second week in a row.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.2(5)3.2(1)0.709(1)114105-1
Cleveland5.27(4)3.33(3)0.698(2)1051141
Kansas City5.47(2)4.2(6)0.618(3)961051
Los Angeles4(9)3.2(1)0.601(4)961051
New York5.5(1)4.86(11)0.557(5)86951
Toronto4.67(6)4.13(5)0.555(6)8778-1
Oakland3.63(11)3.44(4)0.524(7)88880
Chicago5.33(3)5.07(12)0.523(8)8778-1
Tampa Bay3.6(12)4.2(6)0.43(9)69690
Detroit4.06(8)4.81(10)0.423(10)79790
Baltimore3.64(10)4.64(9)0.391(11)59681
Boston4.14(7)5.79(14)0.352(12)59410-1
Minnesota3(14)4.6(8)0.314(13)5105100
Seattle3.25(13)5.25(13)0.294(14)5115110

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Cleveland11943
Texas10854
Kansas City10854
Los Angeles10854
New York10458

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas11448
Cleveland11448
Kansas City10161
Los Angeles9864
New York9171

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Cleveland4.5(5)2.17(1)0.792(1)5142-1
Kansas City5.5(2)3(3)0.752(2)5142-1
Tampa Bay5.67(1)3.17(4)0.744(3)42511
Los Angeles3.5(8)2.33(2)0.677(4)42511
New York5.4(3)4.2(8)0.613(5)32411
Oakland4.14(7)3.57(6)0.567(6)43430
Detroit3.14(13)3.29(5)0.48(7)34431
Texas3.33(10)3.67(7)0.457(8)3324-1
Boston5(4)5.6(13)0.448(9)23230
Toronto4.33(6)5.33(12)0.406(10)24240
Minnesota3.5(8)4.67(9)0.371(11)24240
Seattle3.29(11)5.29(11)0.295(12)25341
Chicago3(14)4.83(10)0.295(13)2415-1
Baltimore3.2(12)6.6(14)0.21(14)1405-1

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