Adrian Gonzalez

The Red Sox have made a trade. They've acquired first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes. Kelly and Rizzo were generally acclaimed as the top two prospects in the Red Sox system, and Fuentes, while young, is thought to have a very high ceiling. So the cost in prospects is high.

The cost in dollars is going to be high, too. While they have not submitted a contract extension to Major League Baseball, it is being reported that the deal has been agreed upon. The Red Sox will pay Gonzalez $167 million over the next eight years¹.

Is he worth it? He's obviously a very good hitter, but is he a great hitter? Let's look at him against his peers, over a period of time. Over the last three years, the 20 best hitters in MLB by Runs Created:

20 highest RC - MLB - 2008-2010

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Albert Pujols	467	458	1679	339	556	128	2	126	369	322	116	18	194	37	11	22	62	.331	.439	.635	1.074	427.8	8.78
Miguel Cabrera	470	468	1775	292	558	115	3	109	356	213	52	11	328	10	5	18	55	.314	.388	.567	.954	361.5	6.98
Prince Fielder	482	482	1757	283	490	90	5	112	326	308	57	42	410	6	5	20	38	.279	.395	.527	.922	360.6	6.78
Mark Teixeira	471	469	1784	318	509	120	3	105	351	271	28	32	329	4	1	17	45	.285	.386	.533	.918	357.3	6.68
Matt Holliday	453	449	1716	296	541	122	6	77	300	215	24	26	298	51	14	11	35	.315	.397	.528	.925	351.4	7.11
Ryan Braun	466	459	1865	306	565	123	14	94	323	155	6	25	355	48	13	10	37	.303	.363	.535	.898	349.8	6.43
Hanley Ramirez	446	436	1708	318	537	104	7	78	249	217	35	24	316	94	30	14	28	.314	.396	.520	.917	349.4	7.02
Adrian Gonzalez	482	472	1759	280	501	92	3	107	319	286	75	14	365	1	1	11	62	.285	.387	.523	.910	335.9	6.29
Joey Votto	432	412	1542	257	484	106	6	86	281	220	27	13	333	27	11	6	26	.314	.403	.558	.960	332.7	7.55
Ryan Howard	465	458	1776	297	477	86	13	124	395	215	36	17	542	10	3	15	36	.269	.350	.541	.892	326.2	6.03
Chase Utley	430	427	1603	300	455	89	10	80	262	215	20	69	277	50	4	17	18	.284	.388	.502	.890	325.8	6.86
Adam Dunn	475	464	1621	245	413	88	2	116	308	315	39	20	540	2	3	11	25	.255	.380	.526	.906	324.4	6.50
David Wright	461	458	1748	290	519	117	8	72	299	237	22	9	419	61	25	29	43	.297	.378	.497	.875	323.2	6.09
Ichiro Suzuki	470	469	2005	265	652	81	14	23	131	128	40	12	222	111	22	6	12	.325	.368	.414	.782	319.0	5.69
Nick Markakis	478	475	1866	279	557	138	6	50	248	228	16	7	304	23	11	16	40	.298	.374	.459	.833	317.2	5.76
Joe Mauer	421	401	1569	280	534	104	6	46	256	225	36	6	166	6	6	22	53	.340	.420	.502	.922	314.7	7.04
Kevin Youkilis	383	376	1391	267	429	105	10	75	271	197	16	38	300	14	8	18	24	.308	.404	.560	.964	306.2	7.56
Jayson Werth	449	405	1543	277	431	88	6	87	251	230	15	19	422	53	7	18	24	.279	.376	.513	.889	304.3	6.55
Dan Uggla	463	459	1684	281	444	95	2	96	287	247	12	17	470	11	7	12	30	.264	.361	.493	.855	299.0	5.79
Alex Rodriguez	399	394	1476	256	422	79	3	95	328	204	17	25	312	36	8	19	36	.286	.378	.537	.914	294.5	6.59

Without digging at all, he's one of the best 10-12 hitters in baseball. But he's also playing in about the worst park for hitters in baseball. What happens when he gets out on the road, away from spacious Petco? Here's the same list, only for just RC in road games.

20 highest Road RC - MLB - 2008-2010

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Albert Pujols	233	229	869	180	276	58	2	68	187	154	60	10	115	13	6	10	33	.318	.422	.624	1.046	207.7	8.09
Adrian Gonzalez	242	237	927	168	287	56	1	70	192	119	35	8	177	1	1	7	26	.310	.390	.599	.989	199.8	7.40
Ryan Braun	234	230	978	158	309	67	7	43	171	72	1	13	177	28	9	2	20	.316	.370	.531	.901	183.5	6.55
Joey Votto	219	209	795	138	262	66	3	40	140	117	17	6	173	19	2	4	14	.330	.418	.571	.989	182.6	8.26
Prince Fielder	240	240	905	140	252	46	2	53	163	152	31	28	205	2	1	7	25	.278	.396	.509	.905	178.7	6.51
Hanley Ramirez	222	217	878	148	277	56	3	32	105	94	17	13	141	53	13	10	12	.315	.386	.495	.881	170.5	6.70
Miguel Cabrera	232	231	905	132	274	56	2	54	174	99	22	5	185	3	4	10	31	.303	.371	.548	.919	169.6	6.27
Adam Dunn	232	222	788	125	209	51	2	56	146	153	14	10	275	2	2	6	9	.265	.389	.548	.937	167.7	7.04
Nick Markakis	241	240	932	140	283	69	5	23	126	132	8	3	153	14	7	8	22	.304	.389	.462	.851	166.3	6.06
Chase Utley	215	214	820	147	229	53	7	34	127	108	9	39	140	27	1	7	8	.279	.386	.485	.871	162.9	6.71
Matt Holliday	221	218	854	140	264	58	1	33	118	97	9	10	148	31	4	7	16	.309	.383	.495	.879	162.9	6.60
Ryan Howard	234	230	914	146	241	44	6	65	205	101	20	10	263	4	1	10	20	.264	.340	.538	.878	162.0	5.75
Ichiro Suzuki	236	235	1019	127	323	43	6	13	61	65	19	6	108	54	9	4	2	.317	.360	.409	.769	159.4	5.59
Dan Uggla	229	227	861	138	241	55	2	46	145	107	5	10	220	6	2	9	14	.280	.363	.509	.871	157.7	6.11
Joe Mauer	212	203	820	130	268	57	3	22	125	112	20	1	97	2	1	9	19	.327	.404	.484	.889	156.7	6.74
Mark Teixeira	232	231	897	145	234	58	1	43	152	135	16	15	168	4	1	10	25	.261	.363	.472	.835	152.9	5.47
David Wright	232	230	915	137	262	66	2	34	154	104	7	3	229	27	15	15	22	.286	.356	.474	.830	150.6	5.34
Evan Longoria	214	209	811	131	228	70	4	38	150	97	10	12	185	13	2	13	24	.281	.361	.518	.879	147.9	5.94
Kevin Youkilis	190	186	708	125	209	48	7	36	118	101	7	18	151	10	2	6	15	.295	.394	.535	.929	146.9	7.03
Justin Morneau	185	183	714	111	219	51	1	41	137	95	18	1	118	0	1	6	14	.307	.386	.553	.939	145.5	7.05

This guy is a great hitter. By all accounts, he's an excellent defensive first baseman. He 28, and should be in his peak performance years for the next 2-3 years, and excellent for several years more. This is exactly the kind of guy in whom you make the kind of investment that they're making. He makes them better now, and he's the kind of fixture in the middle of your lineup that you look to build around. 

So yes, he's worth it. 

He also gives them the best offensive third baseman in baseball, as Youkilis moves across the diamond, back to his original position.  I have some concern about his defensive capabilities over there, but assume he'll be competent, and hit sufficiently well to offset any defensive deficiencies.  Add in Pedroia at 2nd, and it's going to be one of the best infields in baseball, whoever ends up playing SS.  We don't know yet what the final roster will look like, but we know this much - the Red Sox will, again, be one of the best teams in baseball when the season starts...





¹ - As no one's seen the contract, it's not clear (at least not to me) at this time whether that includes this coming season, for which he's already under contract, or not.  Is it an eight-year contract that renegotiates the first year?  An eight-year extension?  A seven-year extension to the current deal?  My guess is the last of those choices, but I don't know for sure.