Monday, August 09, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 8/9/2010

A dismal 3-4 week, a week in which they matched poor pitching with poor offense to finish with a poor record.

  • The big story of the week wasn't actually their disappointing play, but the injury to, and subsequent loss for the rest of the season of, their best offensive player, Kevin Youkilis.
  • I said last week that 3 of 4 from Cleveland wasn't good enough. They promptly went on to win 2 of 4. And it wasn't good enough. If they fall short, those two will be on the short list of lamentable failures that made the difference between playing in October and sitting home to watch the Yankees win again. But. The Tampa Bay Rays did their darnedest to keep Boston in it, going 2-5 on the week, finishing the week on a five game losing streak, and coming within one out and a couple of inches of being held hitless in a game for the third time this year.
  • As pathetic as it all was, they lost half a game in the division against New York, and gained a game in the Wild Card race against Tampa.
  • As long as the difference between Boston and Tampa is less than the number of remaining head-to-head games they've got, which is currently six, the Red Sox have that fabled and desirable "control over their own destiny."
  • As long as Beckett and Lackey and Lester pitch like they did this week, and the offense can't tell the difference between CC Sabathia and Dustin Moseley, "control over their own destiny" is worthless.
  • I really was ready to call it when Youkilis went to the DL on Tuesday, but Pedroia's going to be back soon, Ellsbury cannot continue hitting as he has, and Tampa Bay, all of a sudden, has had their magical mystery tour disrupted by a couple of injuries. The Sox are still not out of it, though they cannot afford many more weeks like this one, or many more pitching performances like they've gotten from Lackey and Beckett the last couple of days.
  • I don't know who was hosting WEEI yesterday afternoon, but he was all excited by the fact that the Sox were getting Moseley instead of Burnett last night. "Beckett vs. Moseley is a HUGE advantage to the Red Sox!" I wanted to reach through the radio and shake him. What kind of an idiot thinks that a starting pitcher with little-to-know-prep time is a guaranteed win? Hasn't he watched any Red Sox baseball this year and seen the Scott Atchison starts? I am completely not surprised by the performance last night.
  • And who, exactly, expected Beckett to pitch well last night? And why would you? That World Series game was seven years ago.
    • His ERA against the Yankees in a Red Sox uniform is 5.62.
    • In the last two years, he's now made nine starts against NY. He's given up 7 runs, 8 runs twice and 9 runs. His ERA is 7.54.
    • In his last five starts against the Yankees, he's allowed 34 runs (32 earned), 42 hits (10 HR) and 11 walks and 3 HBP in 27 1/3 IP, for a sparkling 10.54 ERA.
    Maybe he'll pitch a good game against them again some day, but right now, if I'm a Yankee fan, there's no one I'd prefer to see start for the Red Sox.
  • Thank God Ellsbury's back! Ok, yeah, he's been awful, but there's rust, and he's certainly not the only one, so the sarcasm's not necessary. It's only the performance of Ryan Kalish that prevented a historically bad week for the outfield. In fact, he might not have even managed to prevent it. JD Drew, Ellsbury and Darnell McDonald combined to hit a sub-Cashian .070/.184/.093/.277 in 50 plate appearances. They'd have been much better off with Eddie Gaedel and his plastic bat taking those plate appearances.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week: - Adrian Beltre, who hit .370/.379/.852/1.231 with 3 HR, and continues to be the most consistent offensive performer on the team this year. Special mention to Ryan Kalish, who hit .389/.450/.611/1.061 with 1 HR in his first full week in The Show.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: - Daisuke Matsuzaka, (who, for some reason, they haven't cut yet despite all of the cries for his ouster), allowed 7 baserunners (5 hits, 2 walks) and only one run in 8 innings of work, striking out 6, in what was far and away the team's best start of the week.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/9/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.37(1)4.11(6)0.62(1)684269411
Tampa Bay5(3)3.9(1)0.612(2)68436744-1
Texas4.97(4)4.08(5)0.589(3)65466447-1
Minnesota4.93(5)4.06(4)0.588(4)66466349-3
Chicago4.59(7)4.04(3)0.559(5)624963481
Boston5.1(2)4.56(9)0.551(6)625063491
Toronto4.75(6)4.32(7)0.544(7)60515952-1
Oakland4.15(11)3.96(2)0.521(8)57535654-1
Los Angeles4.54(8)4.71(11)0.483(9)555856571
Detroit4.34(9)4.66(10)0.468(10)525954572
Cleveland4.04(12)4.83(12)0.419(11)476547650
Kansas City4.19(10)5.28(13)0.396(12)446747643
Seattle3.25(14)4.37(8)0.368(13)417142701
Baltimore3.67(13)5.36(14)0.333(14)377437740

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10260
Tampa Bay9864
Texas9369
Chicago9270
Minnesota9171

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10161
Tampa Bay9864
Texas9468
Minnesota9270
Chicago9270

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto6.17(1)4.17(7)0.672(1)42511
Texas4.67(4)3.17(3)0.67(2)4233-1
Oakland3.67(11)2.5(1)0.668(3)42420
Chicago4.43(7)3.14(2)0.652(4)5243-1
Baltimore4.67(4)3.67(4)0.609(5)42511
Minnesota4.86(3)4.29(8)0.557(6)43430
New York4.67(4)4.5(9)0.517(7)33330
Los Angeles5.33(2)5.33(13)0.5(8)3324-1
Cleveland4.43(7)4.71(10)0.471(9)34340
Seattle3.33(13)4(6)0.417(10)33330
Tampa Bay4.14(9)5.14(12)0.402(11)3425-1
Boston3.57(12)4.71(10)0.376(12)34340
Detroit3.71(10)5.86(14)0.303(13)25250
Kansas City1.83(14)3.83(5)0.206(14)15241

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