Monday, April 26, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 4/26/2010

A 4-3 week that was possibly more depressing than the 1-5 week that it followed. The Red Sox have not played good baseball yet, at all, failing in every aspect of the game. The stuff people were worried about has been worse than expected, the stuff that people were excited about has been even worse than that.

  • Obviously 4-3 is better than 3-4. But, given that they were at home against weaker competition, given that they had a chance to sweep two different series and swept neither, it was a disappointing week.
  • Even worse than the record, however, was the performance. The starters gave up 8, 6 and 7 runs in the first three games of the week. They finally got a good start on Thursday and were shut out. They finally had a game with good starting pitching and some offensive support on Sunday, and the bullpen tossed it away.
  • People differ in their opinions of the value of stolen bases. As a general rule, I think that teams are better off worrying about the batter than the base-runner, and, while they can be of tremendous tactical value, I believe that's the case less often than many people think. All that said, it's embarassing to have a team steal nine with none caught, indeed, with none even threatened with being caught, as Texas did on Tuesday night. (The Red Sox did win anyway.)
  • And they still do not have a single "comfortable" victory on the season. Their wins have all resulted from either late offense overcoming a lead or the bullpen hanging on for dear life. Only one of their eight wins has come by more than two runs, and that was a game in Kansas City in which they led by two after seven and then scored three more over the last two innings to win by five. Their four wins this week were each by one run, giving them a 4-3 record for a week in which they were outscored by six runs.
  • The offense has not been good yet, certainly not as good as I expect it to be. Ortiz has been horrible, Victor Martinez has been horrible, Drew's been horrible, Youkilis hasn't been good, after a red-hot start Pedroia's AVG is down to .282 and his OBP to .330, Beltre's done nothing. All told, they're a below-average 8th in the AL in offense. But the pitching and defense has been worse. Much worse. They're tied with the Chicago White Sox for the worst run prevention in the AL through three weeks, which is totally unexpected.
  • The Darnell McDonald story was wonderful. He almost single-handedly won the Tuesday night game, ending the long losing streak, and completely changing the atmosphere inside the ballpark. It's a night that he'll be able to remember for the rest of his life, a night of tremendous accomplishment in Major League Baseball. Whatever else he takes away from his baseball career, he was a star for one night.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Darnell McDonald, who was added to the 40-man roster on Tuesday and hit a game-tying pinch-hit two run homer and a game-winning walk-off single later that night. For the week, he hit .417/.533/.917, going 5-12 with 3 walks and 2 HR. Jeremy Hermida deserves mention as well, as he put up the identical line.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - No one. Lester finally had an OK start, struggling through 5 1/3 but not allowing any runs to the Rangers. Scott Schoenweiss was unscored upon in 3 2/3 innings, but mostly by happenstance, as he allowed seven baserunners in that span. My award, and I choose not to bestow it this week.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/26/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5.95(1)3.32(2)0.744(1)1451450
Minnesota5.32(3)3.68(4)0.662(2)1361360
New York5.33(2)3.72(5)0.659(3)1261260
Oakland4.6(6)3.25(1)0.654(4)137128-1
Seattle3.79(12)3.63(3)0.519(5)109910-1
Texas4.39(7)4.28(6)0.512(6)99810-1
Detroit4.63(5)4.89(10)0.475(7)9101091
Toronto4.26(9)4.53(7)0.473(8)9101091
Los Angeles4.1(10)4.9(11)0.419(9)81210102
Chicago3.89(11)4.74(9)0.411(10)8118110
Boston4.32(8)5.32(13)0.406(11)8118110
Kansas City4.72(4)5.89(14)0.4(12)7117110
Cleveland3.33(13)4.67(8)0.351(13)6128102
Baltimore3.26(14)5.16(12)0.302(14)613316-3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay11943
Minnesota11151
New York10854
Oakland9765
Detroit8577

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay12042
Minnesota10854
New York10755
Oakland10557
Seattle8379

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Tampa Bay7.29(1)2.43(1)0.882(1)6152-1
Oakland5(4)3(2)0.718(2)4233-1
Seattle4.5(6)3.17(3)0.655(3)4233-1
Minnesota5.33(3)3.83(4)0.647(4)42420
New York4.5(6)3.83(4)0.573(5)33330
Texas5.5(2)5.17(9)0.529(6)33330
Los Angeles4.29(8)4.14(6)0.516(7)43430
Detroit4.29(8)4.57(7)0.471(8)34340
Toronto4(10)4.67(8)0.43(9)33330
Boston4.86(5)5.71(12)0.426(10)34431
Kansas City3.67(11)5.83(13)0.3(11)24240
Baltimore3.33(13)5.33(10)0.297(12)2415-1
Chicago3.5(12)5.83(13)0.282(13)24422
Cleveland2.5(14)5.67(11)0.183(14)15241

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