Tuesday, January 19, 2010

First numbers analysis...

In 2006, Massachusetts had a Gubernatorial election which put Deval Patrick into office with ~55% of the vote. The Republican candidate (Kerry Healey) was hurt by the presence of a Republican-leaning Independent (Christy Mihos) on the ballot. There was also a Green Party candidate (? Ross) who took less than two percent of the vote.

The first 39 communities to fully report tonight represented 132 precincts. In 2006, Deval Patrick took 51.39% of the vote in those precincts to Kerry Healey's 39.89%. The "left" candidates took those precincts with ~53% of the vote to 47% for the "right" candidates.

Tonight (as of about 20 minutes ago), Scott Brown has taken those precincts with 57% of the vote to Martha Coakley's 42%.

If those relationships hold across the rest of the state, Scott Brown would end up taking about 53% of the vote tonight.

UPDATE: (9:10 PM) 438 precincts, 130 communites.

Patrick/Ross 2006 - 285691 (52.7%)
Coakley 2010 - 234463 (41.4%)

Healey/Mihos 2006 - 256235 (47.3%)
Brown 2010 - 326043 (57.6%)

The vote is up 4.3% over 2006 in those precincts, and Brown is overperforming both the "right" candidates from four years ago and the "left" candidates from four years ago.

Brown remains on a pace to win 53% of the vote.

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